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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well you may have seen the end of it but it is still rolling sluggishly where I'm watching!  FV3 at T264:

image.thumb.jpg.ba4cb8494488cc8c4bec191fa8d63089.jpg

Looking very promising!

Correct and it's the same at 240z BEFORE low res

 

 

gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

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Yesterday’s T168 and today’s T144 . Definitely gone the wrong way . I thought the ecm was king ? Have no confidence in it at all anymore after this winter . 

38AD25AC-EB72-48DA-B86C-F2E904AE4CB6.png

2BC24A49-88EE-44B5-89F5-7DEF9FC3B0EB.png

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9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Correct and it's the same at 240z BEFORE low res

 

 

gfsnh-0-240 (1).png

Doesn't save us I'm afraid.  No low res on FV3 - high res out to day 16.

That notwithstanding, just good to see those charts at day 10-11.

Edited by Mike Poole

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6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Doesn't save us I'm afraid.  No low res on FV3 - high res out to day 16.

Yes Mike but let's just let the heights build and then look at where it goes.

Thanks I hadn't realised.

Edited by winterof79

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Hi gang ,i am around , i have been lurking ,reading all the posts etc .well in my book still time for snowfalls and plenty of action weather .Just a thought but could we see Erik this weekend ,i had an uncle  eric .😁 . Thanks to all the posters who keep this forum alive ,Best forum around .cheers gang  ,sausage sandwiches brown sauce and a STElla to all the Cold Hunters .

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yesterday’s T168 and today’s T144 . Definitely gone the wrong way . I thought the ecm was king ? Have no confidence in it at all anymore after this winter . 

38AD25AC-EB72-48DA-B86C-F2E904AE4CB6.png

2BC24A49-88EE-44B5-89F5-7DEF9FC3B0EB.png

You've got to bear in mind that the overall pattern is much the same. Compare the 500 heights and you will note that the wave pattern is fairly close between the two. At a more local scale, the small differences in the 500 pattern mean fairly large changes locally at the surface. So, it may seem that the model is jumping around a lot, but on this SE two charts they are fairly consistent.

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bu

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Here we go again, it's all over based on these few runs, yesterday it was all on, history tells us nothing, like I pointed out earlier models are struggling big time. The funny thing is if the models show much better runs tomorrow will it be game on again. I fail to see how models at day 10 and beyond spell game over. 

but it’s at the more reliable  timeframe at t120  it’s gone flatter not day 10 ,and has been pointed out by others it’s rare the models revert back to a colder outlook again at that timeframe.

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Sneaking in through the back door as per METO south and East colder.......

ECH0-192.gif

ECH0-216.gif

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

bu

but it’s at the more reliable  timeframe at t120  it’s gone flatter not day 10 ,and has been pointed out by others it’s rare the models revert back to a colder outlook again at that timeframe.

Perhaps, but look back over the days on here, one day the cold is being played up, the next it's being played down, the met are still giving us a signal on much colder weather final third of this month. And any experienced forecaster will always tell you its a mistake to over analize every single model run

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1 hour ago, Nick F said:

Today's GFS RMM plot gone a bit berserk with the MJO amplitude through phase 8, but the 12z GFS operational running with MJO P6-8 in February reanalysis composite script of heights building N over UK (phase 6), then Scandi ridge building (phase 7) then retrogression of ridge toward Greenland (phase 8 )

210834156_diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member(1).thumb.gif.d221bd91b03abf4d2ad4828965569d79.gif

The GFS was suggesting zonal winds in the upper stratosphere pushing down and coupling with troposphere later this month, but that seems to have disappeared on today's NAM plot with the easterly winds still dripping down through the troposphere after 20/02.

gfs_nh-namindex_20190207.thumb.png.c2ea33b7ccd07c9a876c16ff1f36d2b6.png

So perhaps we have not seen the back of the SSW reversal impacting the troposphere and indeed it may continue to impact on tropospheric circulations for a while in conjunction with the MJO colder phase wave amplification and retrogression.

Some similarities since beginning of the year to perhaps Jan/Feb 2013 following the SSW in early Jan that year, in 2013 there were bouts of cold, though not prolonged, with some milder episodes, it took 2 months for the full effects of the SSW to impact Europe with deep cold from the east - which resulted in an historically cold March. Cold may come sooner this time, but perhaps not on the severity of March 2018 or March 2013.

Excellent post as usual.

Totally agree it's been a very slow response with the 30hpa stratosphere to respond but backed by the right background signals to especially the el nino flat line state and the low solar activity I agree thanks enjoy reading your post.

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At least the high isn’t sinking on the Ukmo 12z run and has a chance for retrogression towards the NE 👍

3877FA5B-331A-44D5-97F0-47C60BB05E86.gif

We need temperatures in Reykjavik to rise!!

Edited by prolongedSnowLover

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think it’s just frustration ,feels like we have been chasing a decent easterly since end of November ,that one back end of November was only one ,so far that delivered snow for about an hour before it melted 😫

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17 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Sneaking in through the back door as per METO south and East colder.......

ECH0-192.gif

ECH0-216.gif

Voila

ECH0-240.gif

 

ECH1-240.gif

Edited by winterof79

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I'd ignore the ECM tonight the switch around is way to dramatic beyond 144hrs stick to the ukmo until the ECM picks up on a different signal.

But the signs are there and models are going to chop and change alot in 24hrs when you see a few days of consistent modelling then yes maybe get excited but I've to got sucked in by model run hysteria as well.

with Greenland blocking being my worst enemy with the models.

But I reckon we are close to a 2013 the closest since then.

It's been a chaotic winter and a nightmare to forecast.

But in my opinion it's not over yet.

Give it a couple of weeks then yes I see you next winter lol.

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The ECM still a good run but it’s a slow burner , it’s heading towards some of the gfs op FI runs so that’s good . Was just hoping we could of got there quicker . Just prey we do get there in the end otherwise it’s gonna be the final big kick in the nuts . Ouch 🥴

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33 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

The negative comments in here are  exhausting and wearing my soul away. THIS IS A “Hunt for Cold” thread please please please I plea to you, if you can’t find any cold then don’t post. I can’t be the only one who doesn’t want read about south westerly winds in here or all of the other guff being written All day today it’s felt like I’ve read about flat pancakes and lack of amplified ridges. Surly all of that can go in the other thread. 

👍 feast your eyes on the GFS Control young man

image.thumb.png.b1c31de0ff36dce5ebecda6d1104c555.png

😋

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UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK, but we still have some precipitation over ROI, NI and parts of Scotland drier elsewhere

ukm2.2019021412_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.5c68b4931ebeb65390c25db30f0a7d3c.png

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There's definitely the potential for something wintery towards the last 3rd of February.  

As usual with our island, the building blocks need to be perfect for deep cold but at least we're in the game. Worst case scenario, we can all start thinking about some spring warmth soon anyway!

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24 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Would you rather we lied to you? Would like me to warm your pillow?

People get slated in here for clutching at straws - well at least they are hunting for cold! No matter how bleak it may appear for coldies, during the winter there will always be a crumb to chase which is a heck of a lot more appropriate to this thread then just typing that the next month will be mild/zonal etc. So it's not about being lied to, it's ( to use a football analogy) about not raving about how wonderful man utd are on a liverpool fan site.

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Think some peeps need to step outside & not take things too seriously its just weather...

BD2E8512-B45C-41B0-B682-5D80F420A286.gif

Edited by JK1

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