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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH cheese, i might do OK, but some of the higher routes straddling west yorks/Greater Manchester (higher Oldham /Hudds etc) could be feet deep in snow in around 10 days..

I actually dont think thats going OTT.

At 300m near Hebden Bridge (Halifax way), that sounds splendid to me. Be nice to have this again... only got about a cm of snow lying currently 🙂

35CAA6A1-19CB-4B48-B719-4097C5C04898.jpeg

CEAB2DB6-05C9-4C2D-8419-7FCC3814D155.jpeg

119C48EE-932A-4E03-8E6E-EA83E8695320.jpeg

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH cheese, i might do OK, but some of the higher routes straddling west yorks/Greater Manchester (higher Oldham /Hudds etc) could be feet deep in snow in around 10 days..

I actually dont think thats going OTT.

The GFS tends to overdo it on cold incursions from the NW so projected uppers of - 8 are more likely to be -5/-6 with the odd -7 thrown in which as the North Westerners know is unlikely to deliver.

If you live about Manchester eastwards you should see some snow under any troughs or more organised precipitation. 

With a flow like this you can't rule out anything organised pushing well inland across Northern England and into the Midlands.

Even for those who want snow the outlook away from the south is alot more interesting than of late. Wintry, with the potential for snow away from costal areas. 

Edited by Cheese Rice

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Tuesday afternoon now into range of the Euro4 model.

Shows widespread wintry showers in the north and west and pushing east across England for a time (1st and 2nd images)

Accumulation chart (3rd image) shows shows the potential for snow to low levels, even in the south east from those showers. Any snow from the front Monday night/Tuesday morning restricted to northern hills.

Don’t take the exact position of showers or accumulating snow too literally. It just shows that showers could be quite widespread, thanks to troughs in the flow, and snow not just over the hills. Snow most likely to accumulate (to low levels) where showers are heaviest.

What’s odd though is that this model has winds westerly, where as every other model has them as north westerly.

F4C3AA5C-5296-4E90-B737-5801C7689732.jpeg

1C576297-7B62-48AF-91F6-92AF97012D85.jpeg

100C4F4E-FFFB-4EB8-96D8-FBA90AD1B8D8.jpeg

Edited by MattStoke

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Tuesday afternoon now into range of the Euro4 model.

Shows widespread wintry showers in the north and west and pushing east across England for a time. 

Accumulation chart shows shows the potential for snow to low levels, even in the south east from those showers. Any snow from the front Monday night/Tuesday morning restricted to northern hills.

Don’t take the exact position of showers or accumulating snow too literally. It just shows that showers could be quite widespread, thanks to troughs in the flow, and snow not just over the hills.

F4C3AA5C-5296-4E90-B737-5801C7689732.jpeg

1C576297-7B62-48AF-91F6-92AF97012D85.jpeg

100C4F4E-FFFB-4EB8-96D8-FBA90AD1B8D8.jpeg

WOW thats a BIG upgrade for my location!!!

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday afternoon now into range of the Euro4 model.

Shows widespread wintry showers in the north and west and pushing east across England for a time. 

Accumulation chart shows shows the potential for snow to low levels, even in the south east from those showers. Any snow from the front Monday night/Tuesday morning restricted to northern hills.

Don’t take the exact position of showers or accumulating snow too literally. It just shows that showers could be quite widespread, thanks to troughs in the flow, and snow not just over the hills.

 

 

 

WOW - Thats a stonker for my area, just as the BBC have downgraded me from light showers to lettuce all.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

WOW thats a BIG upgrade for my location!!!

And mine

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11 minutes ago, snowblind said:

That's the government shut down for you. Not enough people to blow them up.

This made me laugh, I must admit

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday afternoon now into range of the Euro4 model.

Shows widespread wintry showers in the north and west and pushing east across England for a time. 

Accumulation chart shows shows the potential for snow to low levels, even in the south east from those showers. Any snow from the front Monday night/Tuesday morning restricted to northern hills.

Don’t take the exact position of showers or accumulating snow too literally. It just shows that showers could be quite widespread, thanks to troughs in the flow, and snow not just over the hills.

F4C3AA5C-5296-4E90-B737-5801C7689732.jpeg

1C576297-7B62-48AF-91F6-92AF97012D85.jpeg

100C4F4E-FFFB-4EB8-96D8-FBA90AD1B8D8.jpeg

Thanks for posting these charts. I seem to gather it's unlikely the main front initially will bring accumulation to lower ground below say 250m. Indeed for anyone below 250m it may be better to wait until a bit later on to see any showers of proper snow ... but will it stick and accumulate? I always find snow showers in the daytime where the temperature is slightly above zero very hard to stick to the ground and build up a few cms.

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3 minutes ago, doctormog said:

The balloon data appears to be at 77MB rather than the 18z norm of 99MB. I doubt those 20MB would make any significant impact on the 2TB set.

I’m guessing the 91% is based on the deviation from the daily average not the 18z one

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfs_gdas_observation_amount_quality.asp

Goes to show how utterly useless the 18z & 06z are! That’s a staggering data difference on balloon data alone! 12z/00z use 1.6GB and the 06/18z use 99mb 🤣 

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

WOW - Thats a stonker for my area, just as the BBC have downgraded me from light showers to lettuce all.

 

Is anything straightforward !!

Just as Euro4 upgrades, BEEB downgrade -

Surely at that range euro4 should be a good shout..

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

 

Is anything straightforward !!

Just as Euro4 upgrades, BEEB downgrade -

Surely at that range euro4 should be a good shout..

Not sure .. whilst it looks extremely promising to the eye in reality our back yards have to be in the line of the showers ... of course if they are more organised this won't be an issue but as the day goes on the chances of accumulations I feel will be less!

As for BBC take no notice of them they've been awful in the last year... February 2018 I only saw their 'heavy snow' icon once throuhgout the whole month.. we got over 20cm it's absolutely ridiculous how off their forecasts are. 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Is anything straightforward !!

Just as Euro4 upgrades, BEEB downgrade -

Surely at that range euro4 should be a good shout..

Yes - BBC don't know lettuce all anyway!!

 

EDIT : although it is model generated.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Latest fax charts from 36hrs shows plenty of troughs after the cold front passes through.

20190120_1648.PPVG89.thumb.png.d7bed1e1e7e921fa90e436a8ecf03d4b.png20190120_1648.PPVI89.thumb.png.fb204f7e76940706f11991942bc82346.png20190120_1750.PPVJ89.thumb.png.09f55f092d5d7d83eecf72ea53a1f8b4.png

 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Goes to show how utterly useless the 18z & 06z are! That’s a staggering data difference on balloon data alone! 12z/00z use 1.6GB and the 06/18z use 99mb 🤣 

Not really

The 06Z has the most commercial aircraft data, which is very useful for air temperature and pressure. Many flights leave USA for Europe and arrive in UK between 6am and 10am, the data they send prior to 6am is between Ireland and USA East Coast.

So its a bit like horses for courses. The fuller the all round data the better

 

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What annoys me about those Euro4 models is that I am literally a mile outside the heavy snow in north west England 🤣 Can’t take the exact positioning of snow too literally though.

For some reason, that model has westerly winds instead of the north west winds shown on every other model, which would change the shower distribution 🤔 Shows that showers could push right across England and Wales for a time though. This due to troughs in the flow, which show up on the latest fax charts. As per Allseasons-Si’s post above.

Edited by MattStoke

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Bit of a less cold set of T2’s 

B33EB073-6815-4D2B-8A9D-446B9FC50C6B.thumb.gif.1b737a841274d75f4e320d891acb1f4f.gif

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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Tuesday afternoon now into range of the Euro4 model.

Shows widespread wintry showers in the north and west and pushing east across England for a time (1st and 2nd images)

Accumulation chart (3rd image) shows shows the potential for snow to low levels, even in the south east from those showers. Any snow from the front Monday night/Tuesday morning restricted to northern hills.

Don’t take the exact position of showers or accumulating snow too literally. It just shows that showers could be quite widespread, thanks to troughs in the flow, and snow not just over the hills. Snow most likely to accumulate (to low levels) where showers are heaviest.

What’s odd though is that this model has winds westerly, where as every other model has them as north westerly.

F4C3AA5C-5296-4E90-B737-5801C7689732.jpeg

1C576297-7B62-48AF-91F6-92AF97012D85.jpeg

100C4F4E-FFFB-4EB8-96D8-FBA90AD1B8D8.jpeg

Well hoe that comes off I’m under the pink blob just north of London. Would of thought BA would like that chart too . 

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2 minutes ago, pyrotech said:

Not really

The 06Z has the most commercial aircraft data, which is very useful for air temperature and pressure. Many flights leave USA for Europe and arrive in UK between 6am and 10am, the data they send prior to 6am is between Ireland and USA East Coast.

So its a bit like horses for courses. The fuller the all round data the better

 

Haven't loads of flights been cancelled in America due to their snowstorm, is that not the missing data?

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3 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Not sure .. whilst it looks extremely promising to the eye in reality our back yards have to be in the line of the showers ... of course if they are more organised this won't be an issue but as the day goes on the chances of accumulations I feel will be less!

As for BBC take no notice of them they've been awful in the last year... February 2018 I only saw their 'heavy snow' icon once throuhgout the whole month.. we got over 20cm it's absolutely ridiculous how off their forecasts are. 

Parameters for snow will increase through the day. Always most likely to settle where showers are heaviest and/or if they fall after dark though.

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1 minute ago, Deep Snow please said:

Haven't loads of flights been cancelled in America due to their snowstorm, is that not the missing data?

They may have, but 06z normally has about 8-10% more aircraft data - less data in some other areas thou

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Well hoe that comes off I’m under the pink blob just north of London. Would of thought BA would like that chart too . 

Yes - although i can't see BA getting caught up in the hysteria over one blob of snow in one model run over his house, he is very straight laced and level headed and intelligent unlike me!

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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7 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

What annoys me about those Euro4 models is that I am literally a mile outside the heavy snow in north west England 🤣 Can’t take the exact positioning of snow too literally though.

For some reason, that model has westerly winds instead of the north west winds shown on every other model, which would change the shower distribution 🤔 Shows that showers could push right across England and Wales for a time though. This due to troughs in the flow, which show up on the latest fax charts. As per Allseasons-Si’s post above.

They are NW on them charts Matt.

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image.thumb.png.b8a03d950fa7222705923f8fa49f9812.png

Uninspiring 18z GEFS.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - although i can't see BA getting caught up in the hysteria over one blob of snow in one model run over his house, he is very straight laced and level headed and intelligent unlike  us ! Changed to us 😂

Edited by ICE COLD

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