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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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How I wish this run would coninue into +400 plus!

GFSOPEU18_384_1.png

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@bluearmy you said last night you’d expect some nice op runs appearing in the next 4 runs ?. Well the 18z was a stonker. 

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You've got to love this hunt for cold. 2 weeks ago we were on the verge of an easterly blast, which was taken away in a few runs. 2 days ago we were looking at a fortnight of westerlies with winter being wrote off. Now we are looking at a mild first week, but then a movement towards an easterly again! What will unfold is anyone's guess! But it is great viewing! There's a lot left in the tank for cold this winter.

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Flattened or undercut (slid against) ??

Maybe...What do you think? 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_264.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_312.

 

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020612_360.

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9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

How I wish this run would coninue into +400 plus!

GFSOPEU18_384_1.png

If we could get to there on that chart this place would be in meltdown. That was a good run from the 18z let’s hope they continue ?

Edited by ICE COLD
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12 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Was the January 2013 cold spell not caused by a SSW? Or was there more than one? After the mid-late December Atlantic horror show, the Atlantic didn't seem to come back to life for very long for the rest of that winter.

Yep, we have technically had an SSW at about the best possible time in early January, this would normally allow for the conditions in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia to become primed for cold and for extensive snow to build up, meaning when the UK can tap into this feed much colder Conditions can occur and this being evident into March, so even though we haven't seen to much at this stage, things could be primed for it as we go through the month and even beyond, personally I would keep the barbys on hold! ?

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wished the run would verify.

It would definitely be worth the wait feb , they don’t get much better than that . If that run went on past day 16 we’d have brutal cold over us . Look at all that cold air incoming . 

6FAD3C74-CA3D-4E41-8D0A-463C632A6CCF.png

8A2430BB-F44B-44C3-AD08-0DA32795924B.png

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

It would definitely be worth the wait feb , they don’t get much better than that . If that run went on past day 16 we’d have brutal cold over us . Look at all that cold air incoming . 

6FAD3C74-CA3D-4E41-8D0A-463C632A6CCF.png

8A2430BB-F44B-44C3-AD08-0DA32795924B.png

Yes, that's a really long winded way to finally get some PPN over us, its a very cold run for about the last 180 hours but lacking in PPN.

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Also it followed the ECM run and look fairly similar up to day 10 so just maybe we’re onto something ?

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Just need the colder trend to gather pace.  Not too much to ask is it?! ?

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17 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

MJO phase 8 analogue for February incoming.

Yes could well be . MJO has done us no favours this winter and the forecasts have been all over the shop . Let’s hope phase 8 sticks . ?

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32 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yep, we have technically had an SSW at about the best possible time in early January, this would normally allow for the conditions in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia to become primed for cold and for extensive snow to build up, meaning when the UK can tap into this feed much colder Conditions can occur and this being evident into March, so even though we haven't seen to much at this stage, things could be primed for it as we go through the month and even beyond, personally I would keep the barbys on hold! ?

Indeed, I was referring to the 2013 one though lol.

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GEFS 18z has a crazy mean chart for deepest FI

Very determined to get heights into Greenland toward last 3rd of Feb.

gensnh-21-1-384.png

 

 

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23 minutes ago, Don said:

Just need the colder trend to gather pace.  Not too much to ask is it?! ?

I think it's pretty much last chance saloon for any serious cold this winter. Days are ticking by March is drawing nearer especially when you are looking at Day 16 etc..  

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2 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Indeed, I was referring to the 2013 one though lol.

Yeh, that was a good un as well ??

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Evening all,i have not posted in a while as there was nothing showing in the NWP of note and thought that we was going to be slaughtered by zonality,a seed is beeing planted AKA as the hp cell forming in eastern Europe/western Asia,it is this forcing the trough into western Europe/Balkans south then to join forces with the Azores ridge in tandem re-enforcing the block to deflect/disrupt troughs in the Atlantic and pos disrupt enough energy for undercuts,a retrogression to Greenland of this hp cell could be plausable between phase 7/8

the 18z gfs shows this and it would be nice to count it down to the more reliable timescale

it was nice to take a break from the models as i have got some housework/D.I.Y's done lol but looking at the models with interest now,some D.I.Y's can be put on hold for now?

when looking for easterlies,i tend to look at the De-built ecm ens here

https://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagse/?type=eps_pluim

ok these are across the pond in Holland but we are looking for a direction of travel in the winds

temp/dewpoint's look to be trending colder,if the dewpoints are lower than -0 then it's cold enough for snow

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.f872fc030011bace8374e55e0d368171.pngeps_pluim_td_06260.thumb.png.cbe7b5394c03d0f78d0d39aa66d17872.png

the wind direction is markedly different to this mornings with more members going for an easterly(black circle)

eps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.06531b2eee383618aef19c4c677416d2.png

the cold hunt is on AGAIN!!!?

P.S where is all the members names at the bottom!!!

is it that quiet?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Encouraging signs tonight that another pattern change is coming with a Sandi high trying to make an appearance. ECM is good bit nice to see ICON showing more amplification and GFS also com ing on board. There are some real eye candy charts in the GEFS ensembles  too. Ironically UKMO was more amplified earlier in the week but is now showing least amplified pattern Would like to see the UKMO on board in morning runs

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3 hours ago, alexisj9 said:

What's with all these strong lows. Don't mind week two dartboard lows, but these ones are showing up in what would normally be reliable time frames.

We’re all doomed!! ?

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I can’t believe there has been no comments on the 0z ?

 

At this rate I’m going to have to start viewing them myself ?

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8 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I can’t believe there has been no comments on the 0z ?

 

At this rate I’m going to have to start viewing them myself ?

 As usual anything exciting appears in FI.  Unlikely to be T0. However, Not a bad run Granted. the elongated high pressure is extensive and at times an easterly breeze would be felt from that albeit dry. So yes, not without interest! 

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22 minutes ago, Ramp said:

I can’t believe there has been no comments on the 0z ?

 

At this rate I’m going to have to start viewing them myself ?

I'll give it a go. Still learning how to read them and, albeit FI, I think we would like this to verify. (Or not?) ?

gfsnh-0-384.png

Edited by Mizzle
Doubting myself.
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