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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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I for one am not getting sucked into another easterly fiasco just yet, if it makes it into 48 hours then maybe we might actually achieve it and if we do then would be the time to start looking at uppers etc. It would be nice to actually get there this time round but the way the winter has gone I’d be surprised but that would definitely be a nice surprise 

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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Which is for Saturday.

You could extrapolate to a few days later

ECH0-168.gif

Yeh your right, I re posted to show the colder uppers getting closer ?

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Which is for Saturday.

You could extrapolate to a few days later

ECH0-168.gif

Lol, that's not extrapolating. But there are a lot of correct concerns about the lack of cold pooling to the east. Will really struggle to get much out of this as currently forecast.

Edited by Optimus Prime

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31 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't get me wrong it isn't too bad but the Scandi high could whip up some mild air quickly... reminds me of February 2017 and the easterly that occurred then. The wind is also of s SE'y with an anticyclonic curvature so snow showers may be limited in such a setup.

Anyhow a lot of water to pass under the bridge till then.

I've thought for a few days now that surface cold from the continent seems a viable outcome. Without the cut-off upper low moving from Canada there just seems too much pressure upstream to enable heights to build far enough north to deliver a direct easterly feed. In these situations, a cold SE flow is far from out of the question. Surface cold with hints of deeper cold, but nothing like last year I suspect.

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3 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Lol, that's not extrapolating. But there are a lot of correct concerns about the lack of cold pooling to the east. Will really struggle to get much out of this as currently forecast.

Yeh that was my initial concern with regards to current continental temps, the air we tapped into last year was vastly colder. But hopefully small steps could lead us to a sprint finish ?

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25 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

been here hundreds of times january was the last epic fail no different  this time 

Edited by igloo
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9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Lol, that's not extrapolating. But there are a lot of correct concerns about the lack of cold pooling to the east. Will really struggle to get much out of this as currently forecast.

Extend ?

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Just now, igloo said:
22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

been here hundreds of times january was the last epec fail no different  this time 

There is a difference actually, just because we are used to be letting down doesn’t mean we will this time. Winter can still bite back.

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Nice eye candy - but that’s all it is at the moment. In this winter of epic failures, I’m not getting any hopes up.

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1 minute ago, igloo said:
24 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

been here hundreds of times january was the last epec fail no different  this time 

Your quoting me on something I never said. My previous post never stated this?? 

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8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh that was my initial concern with regards to current continental temps, the air we tapped into last year was vastly colder. But hopefully small steps could lead us to a sprint finish ?

Not a bad starting point bearing in mind it will push west

temp_eur2.png

Edited by winterof79
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4 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I've thought for a few days now that surface cold from the continent seems a viable outcome. Without the cut-off upper low moving from Canada there just seems too much pressure upstream to enable heights to build far enough north to deliver a direct easterly feed. In these situations, a cold SE flow is far from out of the question. Surface cold with hints of deeper cold, but nothing like last year I suspect.

Yes the ECM mean from 0z suite suggested this, however room for upgrades if it has the general pattern correct ...it could  be leading us up the garden path again and maybe that is why it so quiet in here, but there is always the hope that things are finally falling in to place and winter could go out with a bang ....

Good to see the GFS para and JMA move towards the ECM this evening...from little acorns.....

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Extend ?

Yeah, that's the one! Was actually the word I was looking for. 

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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

There is a difference actually, just because we are used to be letting down doesn’t mean we will this time. Winter can still bite back.

Don't understand where this quote is coming from!!! I ha E checked all my posts and this is one that has not been sent from my phone, confused now, all my posts ramp up cold and never the opposite ?

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Your quoting me on something I never said. My previous post never stated this?? 

yes sorry dood this computer is a bit wonky with a mind of its own at times?

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I have confidence in the ecm. Uppers are good enough for me at -12 we had -10 last march and had heavy snow for 3 days in showers. The gfs 18z might follow the ecm now. Fingers crossed. We deserve this.

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Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I have confidence in the ecm. Uppers are good enough for me at -12 we had -10 last march and had heavy snow for 3 days in showers. The gfs 18z might follow the ecm now. Fingers crossed. We deserve this.

We may deserve it, doesn’t mean Mother Nature will play ball?

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Not sure posters are appreciating the big differences we are seeing within a few days. Suddenly we have a very amplified picture within a week whereas a couple days ago it looked pretty flat ......  go back about ten days and the general feel post the wintry spell was a period of mobility, followed by a push ne of the Azores ridge and the potential for a scandi ridge.  take out the week of ‘meh’ nwp and we are getting back to where we thought we could be going. 

now add the slider potential (re day 10 ec op and clusters from the 00z) and we could easily arrive mid month with euro low anoms and high anoms to the north ...... it may be a step too far to ask you to have fait( in this but it is making some sense .....

Hence we end up where we would have thought we should have been 4 weeks ago.

Maybe we will have to re-visit the effects of an SSW and background symtems 

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Just now, winterof79 said:

Hence we end up where we would have thought we should have been 4 weeks ago.

Maybe we will have to re-visit the effects of an SSW and background symtems 

I think we head to where we were around third week jan come mid feb. Do we then get proper height rises to our north or just general higher heights to deflect the jet se 

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Regarding the ECM, remember that North Sea surface temperatures are a touch above average at the moment, so whilst Eastern Coastal strips may see more marginal conditions, convection will be greater.

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 Not sure posters are appreciating the big differences we are seeing within a few days. Suddenly we have a very amplified picture within a week whereas a couple days ago it looked pretty flat ......  go back about ten days and the general feel post the wintry spell was a period of mobility, followed by a push ne of the Azores ridge and the potential for a scandi ridge.  take out the week of ‘meh’ nwp and we are getting back to where we thought we could be going. 

now add the slider potential (re day 10 ec op and clusters from the 00z) and we could easily arrive mid month with euro low anoms and high anoms to the north ...... it may be a step too far to ask you to have fait( in this but it is making some sense .....

Synoptically the EPS 240 are a stonker, you would think a reasonable sized cluster would actually be an undercutter, the problem is there isn't any cold air to tap into. over to you for the extended!

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Hence we end up where we would have thought we should have been 4 weeks ago.

Maybe we will have to re-visit the effects of an SSW and background symtems 

Maybe USA got effects first then we have got them after. Just a thought.

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UKMO extended looks fairly mild on the 12z at t168 with some rain spreading in from the west

ukm2.2019021312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.49edf139333506898d9f8ae08ce93587.png

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