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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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10 minutes ago, fromey said:

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

A good sign...and 1 we need to see more construcive-..in both alignment..and force.

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Interesting chart!

UE120-21_wgq7.GIF?676

Not sure if the 850s would be cold enough for snow though.

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1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Interesting chart!

UE120-21_wgq7.GIF?676

Not sure if the 850s would be cold enough for snow though.

Oh no not again!

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I am liking the GFS run, now anyone who knows me knows i don't start shouting from the rooftops with a NW flow, despite my location, but at least its a whole lot better than was progged a few days ago, just something while we wait for something better, it must be said though, the EPS ens or whatever the BBC use for their automated forecast isn't really seeing it yet.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

Yep NW ready to move  north west and bring us zero!!!!

Edited by swfc

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interest again at 144... broken record🙄😂

6DD4C10A-DF35-4B91-A059-59A19CA5E977.gif

Reminds me of when I sat on the Ying-Tong Song!🤣

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2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interest again at 144... broken record🙄😂

6DD4C10A-DF35-4B91-A059-59A19CA5E977.gif

No interest there i'm afraid, it's game over by that stage.

The ridge is collapsing, the Atlantic positively tilting and the Asian vortex moving over the pole to join its Canadian buddy.

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Ukmo dreadful, much different than the last run at the end, just CANNOT get sustained northern blocking, so a blink and you miss it northerly topper how exciting 🤔🤔😔😞

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Oh look a chunk of PV at 144 on UKMO exactly where we dont want it!

 

The 144 hour chart from the UKMO is a downgrade from it's earlier output. Typical that it downgrades when it shows cold.

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44 minutes ago, fromey said:

ive just seen the ridge over on the pacific side punching its way up towards the pole!!

good or bad??

You can see in the attached UKMO T+144 where it goes wrong. The two ridges in the black boxes cannot meet up due to the vortex lobes transferring energy between one another (red arrows)

image.thumb.png.cbfb9f96030d526374ce9c34bafa896d.png

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What is causing the restrengthening of the PV? Remember people saying when we had the SSW that the PV would struggle and be in tatters for the rest of winter potentially, seems to be doing the exact opposite and reforming stronger than at any point this winter? Seems to me the theme of this winter is it dies down a little bit then powers up again.

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This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

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3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You can see in the attached UKMO T+144 where it goes wrong. The two ridges in the black boxes cannot meet up due to the vortex lobes transferring energy between one another (red arrows)

image.thumb.png.cbfb9f96030d526374ce9c34bafa896d.png

Not sure they would meet up anyway as it's a bloody rare occurrence that would produce a cross polar flow

gfsnh-0-186.png?12
Changes on the 12z with heights not as deep over Canada

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Just now, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

Or don't bother posting in here 

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10 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 144 hour chart from the UKMO is a downgrade from it's earlier output. Typical that it downgrades when it shows cold.

yes it seems more and more  likely we are about to get the bartlett hp setup just our luck when we are about to get some sort of blocking the pv goes to overdrive mode it just sums up this winter sometimes it aint ment to be

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Not sure they would meet up anyway as it's a bloody rare occurrence that would produce a cross polar flow

gfsnh-0-186.png?12
Changes on the 12z with heights not as deep over Canada

Still the residual energy is a headache, this has been predicted to happen many times this winter and it never bloody weakens. No doubt when it finally does it will leave behind just enough to spawn more demonic lows and shortwaves.

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5 minutes ago, snow freak said:

This winter now needs to take a hike.  It has failed to deliver in so many ways so just bring on the summer now.  Winter has had its chance and flunked it big time this year.

What a ridiculous post there is still a third of winter left 

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Ukmo looks like eps cluster 1 

that goes on to ridge across the uk and develop an upper ridge just to our ne on the blocked extended cluster 

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Just now, Boro Snow said:

What a ridiculous post there is still a third of winter left 

Well a third left but half of that third has been discounted by most here cos they can’t see a snow event on gfs op ! 

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