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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Just to note the 12z icon was pretty average tbh.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Oh deary me, if things don't start to look up soon, the mods will be renaming this thread the hunt for Doom thread!! I'm quite surprised by the lack of cold this season especially as the jet as been meandering about so much, I suppose a positive for upcoming winters could be a weaker jet due to low solar activity. Still got til the final third for things to make a big uturn folk. And in the short term if you wanna cheer yourselfs up try visiting one of the Eastern seaboard forums across the pond, they even more depressed than us. Already lots of em stating winter is over and where is all the snow. Keep the faith folks, if things show no sign of change by 21st, then perhaps frosty could be right, let's look for spring warm, as much as that peevs me off. ?

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

     

    We can still  get much colder then average temperatures as parts of Canada/US in recent days has shown (and parts of Eurasia in December). However it seems like more impressive synoptics are required nowadays to pull off such feats (such as a beast from the east) as the cold pools available to tap into are smaller..

    Last week was cold but nothing unusual.

    Yet in the last 10 years we have had the 2nd coldest December in 350+ years of records, a March that was ranked 14th coldest which puts it up with historic cold months and one of the coldest 7 days in Feb/March 18. 

    Also though you say the cold is nothing unusual, we have just had the 2nd coldest Jan 31st since 1972, with only 87 beating it out by 0.1c...so whilst not severe, that maybe underselling it a little.

    Anyway models are grim but not without potential. There are certainly solutions to evolve into cold again but it may require a week or two of more spring like conditions. Also an outside chance of record mildness if it all lines up.

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    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    16 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I don't think it's the lack of cold but the strength of the jet stream that has got stronger over the years making it harder for any ridges to build favourable for our benefit..  It's harder for any Scandinavian ridges to back West like it used to.

    I think somebody posted some anomaly charts of the jet stream over past decades which showed how much it's strengthened.  

    And the reason for this is obviously linked to climate change IMHO as the temp gradient from the poles to the tropics is greater thus creating a stronger and more meandering jet stream. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The MJO forecasts all agree with entering phase 8. 

    Still disagreements though on how they get there in terms of amplitude of the signal .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    The MJO forecasts all agree with entering phase 8. 

    Still disagreements though on how they get there in terms of amplitude of the signal .

     

    We had a favourable MJO phase a few weeks ago that didn't deliver a proper high latitude block.

    Didn't I read somewhere that some other teleconnection was over riding/muting the MJO signal?

    Also, the GWO has been in apparent helpful phases but not delivering the goods either.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The MJO forecasts all agree with entering phase 8. 

    Still disagreements though on how they get there in terms of amplitude of the signal .

     

    Is that good or bad?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    7 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Yet in the last 10 years we have had the 2nd coldest December in 350+ years of records, a March that was ranked 14th coldest which puts it up with historic cold months and one of the coldest 7 days in Feb/March 18. 

    Also though you say the cold is nothing unusual, we have just had the 2nd coldest Jan 31st since 1972, with only 87 beating it out by 0.1c...so whilst not severe, that maybe underselling it a little.

    Anyway models are grim but not without potential. There are certainly solutions to evolve into cold again but it may require a week or two of more spring like conditions. Also an outside chance of record mildness if it all lines up.

    But like I say those months required exceptional synoptics to deliver that cold. The mean SLP for March 2013 had by far the strongest easterly flow for this region going back to 1851, so we would expect a much below average temperature. Yet 1883 was still a good deal colder with less impressive synoptics.

    December 2010 had that really persistent NE wind building into December and then that huge Greenland High around the middle of the month. February last year had the huge Scandinavian high in the right place.

    Look at the synoptics of months like December 1874, January 1880 or February 1929 or even December 1981... there aren't anywhere near as impressive as the months you have mentioned, yet they were just as cold or colder. We can still get major cold spells but it takes more impressive synoptics to achieve them because the cold pools aren't as big as they used to be.

    Anyway that's the last of my thoughts on the matter as it will drag the thread off topic.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The GFS 12 hrs run is looking an improvement upstream compared to the earlier 06 hrs run at T84 hours .

    Its also much better than the ICON at the same time . The key thing is to get the low as far to the se as possible around day 5 and hold back the upstream troughing .

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    Is that good or bad?

    That’s good but we need other things to play ball aswell . But certainly we’d take any help going .

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    Just now, bluearmy said:

    Ukmo not only staying amplified but heading beg tilted 

    Indeed so, a nice looking chart at 144

    image.thumb.png.8e050148e2f0c44dbf87d0e661a87e0b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

    UKMO will raise a few eyebrows, sticks with its more amplified solution. The 168 hrs chart will get worth a look later

    Screenshot_20190204-160145.png

    Edited by seabreeze86
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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    Note the polar profile on ukmo day 6 - the Alaskan ridge is preventing the easy passage of an Asian vortex chunk back to Canada ..... all the modelling I have seen completes  this movement  so I remain sceptical but watching for signs of this on other nwp - if it fails we have a big chance of a NH split - cold would  follow ........

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Hmmmm if I had a penny for every UKM 144 chart this winter that was stacked with potential

    228EECFE-8543-4A5C-8138-77514B7D2072.gif

    We’d still like to see that low pressure further se and a bit weaker with a bigger gap between it and the upstream troughing but it’s not bad .

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    The UKMO 144 not a million miles away from a cross polar flow. 

    That sizzling noise you hear is me salivating onto the keyboard.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Kirby,Wirral 1m ASL
  • Location: West Kirby,Wirral 1m ASL
    54 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    I don't think it's the lack of cold but the strength of the jet stream that has got stronger over the years making it harder for any ridges to build favourable for our benefit..  It's harder for any Scandinavian ridges to back West like it used to.

    I think somebody posted some anomaly charts of the jet stream over past decades which showed how much it's strengthened.  

    Would a strengthened jet stream be connected with higher sea temps? 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Note the polar profile on ukmo day 6 - the Alaskan ridge is preventing the easy passage of an Asian vortex chunk back to Canada ..... all the modelling I have seen completes  this movement  so I remain sceptical but watching for signs of this on other nwp - if it fails we have a big chance of a NH split - cold would  follow ........

    The GEM holds back that vortex passage at day 6 . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    GFS is no mans land, can’t help but think the UKMO is just over amplifying the pattern again as it’s done quite often at day 6 this year

    D6D532F5-94E9-4966-9783-C6F88537CB9B.png

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The GEM holds back that vortex passage at day 6 . 

    image.thumb.png.ad60a2bb98b8774501ed2573be09133b.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    I'm still hoping that even if this Winter fails to deliver (bearing in mind there is still time) that it becomes nothing more than an anomaly in the general theme of colder and snowier Winters started in 2017/18, headed towards solar minimum. Based on the last period of colder and snowier Winters though and last Winter I do believe it's still too premature to be be writing off this Winter prematurely in terms of what's possible. I wouldn't be too surprised if March ends up delivering in the end been as there's countless examples of months in annual succession displaying similar sypnotics.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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