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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    29 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Add to that GFS does actually increase the ridge potential compared to yesterday.

    Yesterday GF06z mean

    GFSAVGEU06_174_1.png

    Today's 0z mean for same time

    GFSAVGEU00_156_1.png

    I would say the trend seems to be toward anticyclonicity by the looks of it.

    Indeed and running through the gefs the majority in t plus 300 build a strong high over or near us. Depending on where that sat would mean big differences to us. What isn’t the theme is a strong westerly flow with low pressure to our north and highs to our south. Hence why the professionals have little confidence moving forward. 

    Edited by That ECM
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    25 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    Any potential from the t144 chart on Ukmo ?

    A6141145-744C-4835-AA65-172C7B7E4133.gif

    The most amplified out there and therefore least likely ......

    ec looks about right I think .....hope for more ampl but upstream very strong 

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Difficult to see next weekend's Atlantic ridging attempt not being flattened. Nothing looks likely to be getting underneath any ridiging for the next 10 days. A couple of coldish transient days but predominately Atlantic weather.

    After that though, maybe the Control shows the way forward... ?

    gensnh-0-1-324.thumb.png.f31c3d0b18adc4c7bb5b895bb617fc0f.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    2 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Difficult to see next weekend's Atlantic ridging attempt not being flattened. Nothing looks likely to be getting underneath any ridiging for the next 10 days. A couple of coldish transient days but predominately Atlantic weather.

    After that though, maybe the Control shows the way forward... ?

    gensnh-0-1-324.thumb.png.f31c3d0b18adc4c7bb5b895bb617fc0f.png

     

    I’m favouring over or to our ne but I’ve been favouring that all winter????

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Disappointed this morning after better runs last night , we just can’t build any momentum it’s Been the same all winter . That lobe of death as it’s called just won’t Tut off .  

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    16 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

    Difficult to see next weekend's Atlantic ridging attempt not being flattened. Nothing looks likely to be getting underneath any ridiging for the next 10 days. A couple of coldish transient days but predominately Atlantic weather.

    After that though, maybe the Control shows the way forward... ?

    gensnh-0-1-324.thumb.png.f31c3d0b18adc4c7bb5b895bb617fc0f.png

     

    At that timescale the eps show a mean scandi ridge but alas it’s more sceuro after yesterday’s noon run showed a propensity to lower heights up there (against previous guidance). The mean does look like it hides some varied clusters though but much less Euro low anoms than the previous suite 

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Disappointed this morning after better runs last night , we just can’t build any momentum it’s Been the same all winter . That lobe of death as it’s called just won’t Tut off .  

    Let's give the 06z a go maybe missing data because of the super bowl.?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    57 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Disappointed this morning after better runs last night , we just can’t build any momentum it’s Been the same all winter . That lobe of death as it’s called just won’t Tut off .  

    At least some of us saw some lying snow  in the end but because we can’t get any sustained HLB it’s all been washed away quickly.

    The ec46 and whatever seasonal models the met office use ,well at least they have proven that in the U.K. you CANNOT forecast with any accuracy weeks or months in advance,not even close to it,although I’ve never believed you can.So maybe the Met and European Centre should stop using them,maybe ?

    Best thing to do is just ignore them from now on,and concentrate in the shorter term,5-6d ahead,anything even  beyond that timeframe,seems to very rarely verify.

    A most frustrating winter,still think one mega cold blast will happen though,don’t expect the models to pick upon it though,what with their poor performance throughput the winter season ??

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire

    Have to be honest im not sure what to make of the models at the moment as we have seen everything from S,lys via Africa and biting E,lys from Siberia.

    One thing I will mention is if the UKMO is right along with some of the output yesterday then an intial E,ly is unlikely to be the beast but at best a NE,ly with around -8 to -9C uppers. For a decent chance of a real cold blast would require movement of this high towards Greenland. Simple reason we need to pull some cold arctic air on the eastern flank of the high.

    My heart is saying we could yet see this evolve into something more special as its always good to have the UKMO as the most promising output. My head says something along the lines of the ECM i.e UK controlled by high pressure but neither a very cold E,ly or the dreaded mild S,lys.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    An improved ICON at day 5.

    A bit slower with the upstream low . The key thing is we really only have one chance to develop a decent wedge of heights to the n ne .

    The modelling is solid that the upstream troughing will edge east. If we can get those heights to the ne then we could get some trough  disruption upstream .

    PS very nice day 7 UKMO

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    if the ec46 was abolished nobody would actually miss it.It seems to fail every winter,or perhaps it’s fed garbage in ,so it throws garbage out ?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    if the ec46 was abolished nobody would actually miss it.It seems to fail every winter,or perhaps it’s fed garbage in ,so it throws garbage out ?

    Have I imagined the last two weeks ??

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    if the ec46 was abolished nobody would actually miss it.It seems to fail every winter,or perhaps it’s fed garbage in ,so it throws garbage out ?

    Have I imagined the last two weeks ??

    All you are doing is backing up my last post ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Have I imagined the last two weeks ??

    All you are doing is backing up my last post ....

    While i do agree broadly and understand what you are getting at, with those anomalies over Greenland, however mobile the individual members / clusters were, you would still have expected better wedges and more frequent and perhaps longer lasting IMO.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    I think the problem is a few weeks ago the EC46 for last week and the next couple weeks were indicating higher than average heights to the north of us (more so nw of us) and with that people assume Greenland high and coldmagedden!!Sadly Northern arm of jet hasn’t allowed that with just a few wedges of heights developing but that has been enough for last week to have provided heavy snowfalls for some.In some ways it makes you think what could have it been like if heights had of gone up to Greenland-then a real cold spell could have really developed.I would have shown some EC46s from a few weeks ago to show this but alas technology is not my thing and don’t know how to do it lol!!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    19 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Have I imagined the last two weeks ??

    it was throwing up a huge block over greenland lasting weeks and weeks with bitter easterlies was it not,or maybe i read the charts wrong.

    And what did we end up with,one decent snowfall ,especially over high ground,with drifting snow,that has rapidly melted now,because we haven’t had High latitude blocking like the ec46 showed to keep the cold going.Only thing it got right was the slight negative anamoly temp wise.

    Its credibility was already bust anyway from  poor performances over the winter months in previous winters.

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Meanwhile better wedging on the 6z than the 0z in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    image.thumb.png.d40da68410d6b2621d5b6646de558488.pngimage.thumb.png.7c798929a0484d8b6503b8f2767063c8.png

    A better dig of the trough as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

    it was throwing up a huge block over greenland lasting weeks and weeks with bitter easterlies was it not,or maybe i read the charts wrong.

    And what did we end up with,one decent snowfall ,especially over high ground,with drifting snow,that has rapidly melted now,because we haven’t had High latitude blocking like the ec46 showed to keep the cold going.Only thing it got right was the slight negative anamoly temp wise.

    Its credibility was already bust anyway from  poor performances over the winter months in previous winters.

    Where do I start .........

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Where do I start .........

    lol show me,whilst i’m waiting for metociel to work,gfs is stuck on 96 ,but I notice the 06gfs is always too flat compared to the other 3 runs a day it outpits

    Edited by SLEETY
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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