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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CMON 18z - throw one out.

I'm not overly expectant on the 18z to deliver much - think if we're going to get something cold wise it'll be more of a gradual thing with lots of twists and turns along the way - we have to start something though - 
How about that 240 day 10 chart for the 1000 time this Winter? ?

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This cold spell ! if we get one

I believe is not gonna show in the op till the last minute

its a case of reading the ensembles

clusters don’t lie 

ops do

Edited by snowbob
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20 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

We are just about to endure the classic mild spell before an easterly. The goods are coming.

Is that a good thing or do you have evidence to back up this statement.  Sorry dude but this is exactly why this thread has gone downhill ever since the mods split it

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6 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

Is that a good thing or do you have evidence to back up this statement.  Sorry dude but this is exactly why this thread has gone downhill ever since the mods split it

Bit of an ironic statement,don’t you think?

Edited by snowbob
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Just now, snowbob said:

Bit of an ironic statement don’t you think

That’s true but this forum is been ruined with statements like the one I’ve quoted.  Some of you may not like me for what I’m saying BUT I’m only stating what all of the more experienced members are thinking.  It’s a model thread and we having to sift through hundreds of statements like this just to get an idea of what the weather going to be like.  I’m only stating THE TRUTSh.  Enough is enough now.  This thread has gone downhill big time recently 

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13 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

Is that a good thing or do you have evidence to back up this statement.  Sorry dude but this is exactly why this thread has gone downhill ever since the mods split it

Have to agree with this it's been very hard to follow

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5 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

That’s true but this forum is been ruined with statements like the one I’ve quoted.  Some of you may not like me for what I’m saying BUT I’m only stating what all of the more experienced members are thinking.  It’s a model thread and we having to sift through hundreds of statements like this just to get an idea of what the weather going to be like.  I’m only stating THE TRUTSh.  Enough is enough now.  This thread has gone downhill big time recently 

Well if you call some of the most knowledgeable and best posters in the business as going downhill, I'm somewhat bemused! Personally I think we have the best of both worlds, namely some astute weather and climate experts, and with a bit of light hearted banter threw in for good measure. Hell I would say netweather forum is amongst the best out there, certainly nothing else as good in this country ?

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Out to 120 on the pub run, and it looks like the GFS has been on the orange juice. No amplification increase, in fact, it's less amplification north of our locality. Early doors, no improvement, if anything just an inter-run disimprovement!

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Gfs is like an old grand national horse

it needs to be put out of it misery 

and laid to pasture

bless 

gfsp is what we should be taking seriously 

consider gfs as an old hat now

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Out to 120 on the pub run, and it looks like the GFS has been on the orange juice. No amplification increase, in fact, it's less amplification north of our locality. Early doors, no improvement, if anything just an inter-run disimprovement!

I would not agree marked improvement with that low in Atlantic not phasing.

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1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Gfs is like an old grand national horse

it needs to be put out of it misery 

and laid to pasture

bless 

Yeh, good point, after spending quite a bit of time on American forums, it's blatantly obvious they hate it to. Literally everyone says it over blows everything, from dartboard lows to massive amounts of snow, to non at all. ECM has far more credentials, which is why I'm so bemused as to why so many seem to rate it on here, especially as the 18 and 6z have far less data input into it ?

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would not agree marked improvement with that low in Atlantic not phasing.

Aware of that, but it's no use without amplification north of us! Of that, there is none! 

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image.thumb.png.02f913b62238ed598c304d7bbd94c825.png

GFS 18z shows us a way of getting some cold Euopean/arctic air. A backstop high forms to the west of Ireland but it needs to develop quickly and get the the low stuck to the West of Greenland. A high would then build and set the way to a cold spell from there.

A massive ask but the 18z is at least a little more interesting then recent woeful runs. Lets hope we can get some cold European air.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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11 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would not agree marked improvement with that low in Atlantic not phasing.

This is where grammar and punctuation are crucial. Your words could mean two completely opposite sentiments, and I have no idea which.

Please clarify.

 

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6 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Aware of that, but it's no use without amplification north of us! Of that, there is none! 

The amplification happens after the low slides this is the area to watch FV3 slides the low quicker net result more amplified run.

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