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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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25 minutes ago, Ydoj said:

Just been reading pages 10-20 thinking they were the latest updates ?

Probably best you keep reading from there, things were looking much more promising!! Made me laugh though ?

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What about the extended please?

The best for a while - strong heights over the Greenland locale with low heights centred in both the mid-Atlantic and western Russia.  By day 15 link is made between the two low height centres (could do with that link being stronger and the intensity of the low heights in mid-Atlantic being less intense, but progress!)

Edited by mulzy
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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The best for a while - strong heights over the Greenland locale with low heights centred in both the mid-Atlantic and western Russia.  By day 15 link is made between the two low height centres (could do with that link being stronger and the intensity of the low heights in mid-Atlantic being less intense, but progress!)

Thank you sir.

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I'm seeing some fair cross model agreement for an attempted push up of High Pressure from the South in around 7-9 days time.

ECM below actually makes a good deal of it and stretches it right over the country

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More subdued and unsure on GFS 

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But nonetheless I do occasionally like to see this when there's nothing in the way of cold standing out - it's far better than low pressure pumping in from the West and there's a chance any HP pushing up in 7 days+ time may end up in a position we all want it to end up.

Yes, there's probably a better chance it won't get up to much but at least there's 'something' going on.  

Edited by StretfordEnd1996
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All I can see in the days ahead, is a strong jet stream, firing up against the sub tropical high as we know it as the Azores high, deep cold in the North east of the United States often brings us some potential stormy weather, Although , there is still plenty of time for Winter....:yahoo:PS don't throw all the Toys out of the Pram for Winter Weather just yet:oldrofl:

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jet.png

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I'm looking forward to the 18z tonight, The 12z today started the changes nice and early in the run, more steps towards higher amplification from 72 onwards and I'll dip in here and update. The changes early on were quite significant. Let's hope the pub run is on the sherry tonight and amplifies like the lunatic we know it can be! Seriously though, I'm hoping this is a trend and that the 18z improves further again tonight.

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3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

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In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! :oldgrin:)

   well it may not be the best output but it could so easily change now to see gnarlier chart on the model I think we should carry out the ritual light the blue fire and then we can call the white which to get rid of the Canadian PV and give us the Narnia charge we desire 

 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles are very interesting tonight at D8: pretty much a 50/50 split between the GFS op and GFS parallel scenario.

 

WOW - so 50% clusters then and one is a stonker.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM ensembles are very interesting tonight at D8: pretty much a 50/50 split between the GFS op and GFS parallel scenario.

 

As mulzy mentioned, seeing the mean euro high anoms dispensed with by day 14 is a step forward. Assume clusters will show some euro low anoms and in conjunction with a trend to higher anoms to our north we may be onto something - let’s hope whatever it is accelerates as would rather see cod arrive by 15/20th. Last years BFTE has uppers and thicknesses that were  pretty extreme and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat. the earlier the better as the month progresses.....

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As mulzy mentioned, seeing the mean euro high anoms dispensed with by day 14 is a step forward. Assume clusters will show some euro low anoms and in conjunction with a trend to higher anoms to our north we may be onto something - let’s hope whatever it is accelerates as would rather see cod arrive by 15/20th. Last years BFTE has uppers and thicknesses that were  pretty extreme and I wouldn’t expect that to repeat. the earlier the better as the month progresses.....

Last year's 2nd bfteast appeared at very short notice. Im expecting the same before the end of feb.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

CMON 18z - throw one out.

I'm not overly expectant on the 18z to deliver much - think if we're going to get something cold wise it'll be more of a gradual thing with lots of twists and turns along the way - we have to start something though - 
How about that 240 day 10 chart for the 1000 time this Winter? ?

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