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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Just now, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

Ecm could be a boom I hope lol

boom for summer sun when it shows wet and windy

just hope signs there at the end for high pressure, like the 00Z, and last few GFS runs, I will be bored of unsettled weather after a week

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2 minutes ago, Purga said:

I disagree, there are some peaches in there - e.g.

image.thumb.png.1aaf711e771e209954cd61419914f370.pngimage.thumb.png.4237e06efe2ec4c59d21eac065e234ab.png

Granted a minority but a resurgence nonetheless.

Fair enough, I did just have a quick scan through the ensembles and there’s some interest but there’s also a hell of a lot of runs that have an absolute monster vortex in the same old place as per usual. Time will tell, to be honest the GEFS have been absolutely useless all winter I’ve spent a lot of time combing them so I don’t trust them much anymore either way.

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10 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

boom for summer sun when it shows wet and windy

just hope signs there at the end for high pressure, like the 00Z, and last few GFS runs, I will be bored of unsettled weather after a week

Slight correction there, i think Summer Sun actually likes high pressure, its just that obviously you need some rain to avoid droughts and i think he would rather it fall in winter, so taking this out of the equation, he likes as mild as possible and as dry as possible.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Slight correction there, i think Summer Sun actually likes high pressure, its just that obviously you need some rain to avoid droughts and i think he would rather it fall in winter, so taking this out of the equation, he likes as mild as possible and as dry as possible.

Just wanted to add that another dry summer like 2018 will not be good for the country

This winter itself has been very dry and more high pressure 

A little top up coming in the coming week but yh thats all folk

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Quote

 

GEM only has about 25% support from its own ensembles. So, oddly we have GEM opp, GFSP opp, Navgem opp, and about 50% support from the GEFS. 

Encouraging but obviously its on a knife edge so great caution needed.

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Earlier phasing of north and south jets over the USA on the ECM producing a deeper low and more amplitude upstream .

It will evolve differently from the GFS because of that day 6 onwards .

Edited by nick sussex
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Yes I guess there are some straws to clutch.

potential for a ridge at day 4+ but the energy currently being modelled coming off the Atlantic looks a little too much for it to create any worthwhile blocking.

Of course if the models are overdoing the jet and we get some disruption then that could change.

If it does then there could be a big flip in the ensembles and very quick turnaround from the zonal forecast out to mid Feb but at the moment it is a big if.

At least it is something to look for and makes the model viewing a little more interesting since it all went TU for umpteenth time this Winter.

 

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EC 168

8210E433-F530-4C44-88C8-3B2211A16641.thumb.png.39223617a14252ee76bc983d7309f507.png

The potential is there for some height rises over Greenland/Iceland.

Regardless of how the run develops from here,  a  definite trend has been picked up over the last 24 hours for the mid term. The Atlantic onslaught is ‘questionable’.

Doesnt surprise me!

Sometimes I wish the models didn’t go past 168. Unless there is a very strong signal with cross model agreement, charts beyond this timescale are liable to wild changes. The models will always favour the default westerly pattern (as they should at that range) but it’s important to recognise (especially in this thread) charts tend to evolve from the earlier stages, effecting the longer term, rather than the longer term charts influencing the earlier timescales.

Edited by chris55
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7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye better again, signs that the unsettled crap, may only last a week, trouble is though FI, many times settled weather is downgraded

ECM1-216.GIF?03-0

You say that but it has been the form horse for nearly a year now . The models show a long unsettled spell ahead but in reality it only last for around a week before high pressure comes back on the scene . It’s happened time and time again ever since the ssw last feb/March . Let’s hope we can get high pressure in the right place for a cold spell this time . ??

Edited by ICE COLD
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28 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

You say that but it has been the form horse for nearly a year now . The models show a long unsettled spell ahead but in reality it only last for around a week before high pressure comes back on the scene . It’s happened time and time again ever since the ssw last feb/March . Let’s hope we can get high pressure in the right place for a cold spell this time . ??

I keep saying it, but it's the treacle effect! Time and again we see models throwing powerful systems towards us, only for them to downgrade once they get within the 5-6 day timeframe.

Looks possible this may be repeated which is a little surprising as I thought the ultra cold airmass from the US would push it through this time.

There has been a genuine lack of momentum from the Atlantic since last march; kind of reminiscent of the period in the mid-1990s which saw a prolonged dry spell (and some good summers to boot).

"If onlys" are meaningless, but if only that PV was somewhere else. Of course, it's all part of one pattern, so it is all linked.

Whatever happens, it does not look like we will be stuck under a mild high to the south for any length of time and we seem to keep seeing the jet tracking south.

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