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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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5 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Mate from the start of the winter Iv been telling family members about the really good looking background signals for a cold winter and possibly quite a bit of snow and so far that hasn’t happened and I look like a complete muppet. This winter so far has been a very long chase from the start and I’m pretty much ready to give up and start chasing thunderstorms again.

I've been doing likewise since backend of December, to the point the local authorities are asking why there is such a short fall of bread and salt in the shops! And guess who there pointing the finger at! I'm praying we see a big shift this month otherwise my credentials are shot already, which would be a shame as I'm only just starting out ?

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I've been doing likewise since backend of December, to the point the local authorities are asking why there is such a short fall of bread and salt in the shops! And guess who there pointing the finger at! I'm praying we see a big shift this month otherwise my credentials are shot already, which would be a shame as I'm only just starting out ?

Lol when the cold high was over us before the first cold spell, it was cold in the se at any rate. There was no bread or milk when I went shopping.

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22 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Mate from the start of the winter Iv been telling family members about the really good looking background signals for a cold winter and possibly quite a bit of snow and so far that hasn’t happened and I look like a complete muppet. This winter so far has been a very long chase from the start and I’m pretty much ready to give up and start chasing thunderstorms again.

? That's exact my standing by now ?

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4 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month. 

Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”?

The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather?

Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!?

i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not. 

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1 hour ago, Vikos said:

What makes me so currios is the fact, that a couple of days ago there where severe easterly outbreaks predicted by GFS, later EC...both discarted them and turned to an active atlantic within only few runs. The thing I can't catch is: why is this (still only predicted) pre-spring'ish weather seen as final, but winter'ly conditions are completly out of reach? Isn't it possible to see this swingaround in a couple of days again?

I grabbed in a big pile of sh***t when I told near people (friends, family) AGAIN that there will be freezing cold conditions by mid-Feb,

I learnded that I shouldn't predict something for sure these days... this jet is wibbely-wobbely...

The answer to your first question is climatology: on average we have west to east progression of Atlantic systems. Yes, we could see a flip as the NWP models have struggled beyond five days all season. I don't think we will have a locked in period of high pressure over Iberia for an extended period, and there are likely to be some surprises cropping up at short notice. I think the combination of the negative PNA and uncertainty over SSW impacts on the Arctic profile will continue to cause problems.

Throw in some bizarre MJO forecasts and the ingredients are there for flip-flopping. I still think that until we see a more favourable Pacific pattern and consequent shifting of the PV from Canada, we are looking at occasional hints of Scandi blocking or small wedges of high pressure.

 

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3 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”?

The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather?

Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!?

i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not. 

Ha ha!

I have an email group of some family and friends who are interested in the weather where I post my musings. Always very careful to point out what could go wrong and add estimated probabilities. Never tell those who are not interested in the weather until you are 90% sure! It may seem that it would be great to be seen as a sage for forecasting bitterly cold weather weeks out, but your credibility will bust fairly quickly!

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11 minutes ago, Danielvn said:

Can we stop using phrases like “I think we deserve it”?

The weather doesn’t respond to what people deserve or not. I mean how does one come to deserve cold weather?

Also, what kind of person goes around telling their family about what the weather’s going to be like based on background signals?!?!?!?

i sometimes tell my wife about possible snow events up to a week out and I end up with egg on my face more often than not. 

We in the UK are probably more passionate about the weather than anybody in the world. Having seen some great winters during the 80s, just think it would be nice to see some of the younger members get something of that potency!! People been asking me all winter how's it looking for cold and snow this winter, and I've pointed out on numerous occasions background signals looking good, but folk seem to hold you to it, others just say he ain't got a clue. The missus for instance has horses, so everytime I tell her, I will get nahhhh, the horses ain't having any of it, she is convinced they sense these things long before we or computers do!! And I don't think it's wrong so say we deserve best roll of the dice, apart from 5 days end of last Feb, and a cold December 2010, we ain't had that much to get excited about! 

Edited by Mattwolves
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3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Interesting start to the runs tonight ?

Icon and UKMO looking much more high pressure oriented.

Yes definitely better heights to our north at 96, wouldn't take much of a tweak with those 2 anti cyclones either way to make it a very very good chart. For now, let's just use the P word and see how the rest of the run develops!

 

Edit, at 102 very close to being great.

 

Screenshot 2019-02-03 at 16.02.30.png

Edited by Rocheydub
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11 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Yes definitely better heights to our north at 96, wouldn't take much of a tweak with those 2 anti cyclones either way to make it a very very good chart. For now, let's just use the P word and see how the rest of the run develops!

 

Edit, at 102 very close to being great.

 

Screenshot 2019-02-03 at 16.02.30.png

Is it close though realistically? We’d need that low at the southern tip of Greenland to disappear completely or be effected enough by the small ridge of higher pressure in front of it, realistically it’s just not going to happen especially at day 4 range IMO, I don’t see any wiggle room in it... the low can’t breeze through east and the ridge can’t go north from the Russian side to get possible linkage so it’s like a stagnant pattern.

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The difference at 144 between the 12z and 6 z at the same time frame, is absolutely huge. There is something afoot. If we can get slightly better amplification to our north west it could be (as The Donald says) "Huge"! Massive differences and for a change, it's for the better. Hopefully it's a trend! ECM 12z will give us a better idea.

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21 hours ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Models are clueless right now....expecting a more negative Nao to start showing after weekends model runs, Def scandy high potential post mid month.

00z

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12z

image.png

Will be excellent to see another come good...Scandinavia high form horse mid Feb....Jma and Mogreps signatures.

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26 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GEM back on track,  here T186

image.thumb.jpg.73966d7e9d180b3d61ab825d7323389b.jpg

Big upgrades on the 12s so far, and we draw breath....and the chase is so on again!

Of note is that GEM and NAVGEM are virtually identical at this time frame and not often you see that. Certainly a good development.

Edited by Jason M
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19 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Of note is that GEM and NAVGEM are virtually identical at this time frame and not often you see that. Certainly a good development.

Lots of support in the GEFS at the same time frame. Positive developments this evening ?

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