Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 12.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

A lot more uncertainty on the 18 run. GFS 12 had almost all members above average

gefsens850Edinburgh0.png

Operational among the coldest members, but not quite an outlier?

Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

Y201901.D3012.thumb.png.9e63995c0b06888bc389b22ec15cbb8b.png

and further out here

Y201901.D3012f.thumb.png.ee4447da53cecbf63712792c10433cbe.png

The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

 

All sounds very feasible to me.

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Peak of the milder air looks to be the 5th slight fall afterwards but nothing overly low the op was a cold outlier at D9

 

Mild outlier on day 8 ?

Edited by FreezingFog
Link to post
Share on other sites

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

Looks great to me..an early taste of spring!!..bring it??

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped quote.
  • Like 4
  • Thanks 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Shame we cannot get this sort of pattern in the Summer:

 anim_ssa3.gif  anim_oun1.gif

That is more in line with my expectations after D10, some sort of attempt at a rise in heights in the Atlantic region. On this run, it pumps the warmer air over the UK so a taste of Spring, but the eventual placement will likely be more to do with the Pacific MJO forcing interference, on the 0z it is not helpful.

The MJO forcing or lack of it can IMO be partly to blame as to why the trop/strat link is not getting us that downwelling signature quickly, rather more a drip-drip feed. A good MJO 7 cycle, maybe mid-month would allow a trop to strat, strat to trop forcing that could be more productive to a cold pattern:

ensplume_full.thumb.gif.a11aac39397cb1aba4a65c24888102a2.gif

I am more than hopeful that the pattern will change around mid-month from the current cold slack setup, maybe earlier, once the models have fed in the background changes. Where the sine wave upper air pattern sticks is another question?

  • Like 4
Link to post
Share on other sites

There seems to be a squashing of the low pressure towards the UK next weekend and it seems to the be the area around Greenland that is causing it

ECM mean 0z runs for next Saturday

image.thumb.png.81288f4f53c32e75eccf8311336e4289.png

Lol keep this up and it will to be the south of UK come Saturday.......??

Edited by Weather-history
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Penrith Snow said:

WARNING!

DO NOT look at this mornings GFS run.

So hideous is it that people will be referring to it in years to come as the worst example of a model run ever, it is the Devil opposite of 'That ECM' and will be used to scare snow and cold fans for decades to come.

It is the model output equivalent of a Snuff Movie, You Have Been Warned.

Andy

And as we all know every frame of the GFS verifies out to 384 doesn't it?

9FE92296-1556-420A-AEE4-40E9E9C1169F.png

Edited by Polar Maritime
Edited quote.
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

9FE92296-1556-420A-AEE4-40E9E9C1169F.thumb.png.09fefee8a146deb45986cf0908b5ccbb.png

  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

9FE92296-1556-420A-AEE4-40E9E9C1169F.thumb.png.09fefee8a146deb45986cf0908b5ccbb.png

The NWP has actually improved slightly this morning.  The UKMO is also better.  

  • Like 6
Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There seems to be a squashing of the low pressure towards the UK next weekend and it seems to the be the area around Greenland that is causing it

 

Lol keep this up and it will to be the south of UK come Saturday.......??

It maybe worth remembering what happened with the last low and how it trended further and further south and weaker. Would it be that surprising for that to happen again?

There isn't really the cold air aloft to have a repeat so it would likely be cool and wet for most except on the very highest ground.

It's also cool yo see the ensembles. A few have probably record breaking mild. But at this stage doesn't mean anything other than for giggles.

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, chris55 said:

ECM not without interest at 120!

complex trough with slider potential.....a small ridge between centres and some trough disruption out west. Could evolve a much colder pattern....one to watch.

9FE92296-1556-420A-AEE4-40E9E9C1169F.thumb.png.09fefee8a146deb45986cf0908b5ccbb.png

Very interesting tweet from Matt Hugo's a few minutes ago.  Apparently 51 ECM ensemble members building wedge of hieghts around Iceland sending low further south around 120hrs. Resulting in colder evolutions going forward.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
  • Like 8
Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Rambo said:

Thankfully thats all conjecture, so dont need to worry until nearer the time (if indeed there is a need to worry)

Well that makes every forecast 'conjecture'. However, looking at all the models and I would expect that temps will be in double figures by mid Feb.

Link to post
Share on other sites

At the moment the issue is more about the fella coming off the esb day 7 .......currently a very strong push of v low heights but time for that to be adjusted somewhat. eps spreads do have a cluster of lower heights headed se into Europe at day 10 (another diver?) so as others have already wondered, maybe best to keep a watching brief and not make too many definitive statements that you know what will happen over the next four weeks. 

  • Like 9
Link to post
Share on other sites

Tbh, the gfs AO/NAO and gefs AO /NAO forecasts have been pretty desperate recently beyond a week so that indicates how well they must be verifying on our side of the NH 

sadly, the ec/eps have been much better 

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Although the outlook is uncertain im not buying the medium range suggestion of the jet being orientated SW-NE, high pressure to our S, S,lys from Africa!

If I had to take a punt then more likely unsettled with the jet orientated W-E and at times NW-SE with colder NW,lys especially for Scotland. An unsetted outlook more akin to early winter than late winter when blocking is normally more prevelant. Could well be hopelessly wrong though!

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Netweather meets The Amityville Horror!?

image.thumb.png.249bcdf036367357bab745544a5b3155.png

I wouldn't worry about charts like that, as long as they are not still showing in 3 weeks time, as long as that Atlantic trough is quasi stationary and digging frame by frame, i have seen many an Easterly a week after charts like that, wrt mild to cold spell transitions, there is no correlation very mild and not quite cold enough, in fact the reverse is true sometimes as very mild can mean better WAA events attacking the PV.

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...