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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Heat, Ice, Freezing Fog. Etc
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

    Obviously people in the SW are now going to rate this winter as epic due to yesterday’s snow, but it was a fairly localised event and on the whole it’s been pretty poor country wise thus far.

    Not seeing anything too exciting in the offing for the next couple of weeks sadly. Wet and windy order of the day. 

    Not sure Cornwall to Hampshire (West to East) and up to Gloucestershire to the North is that ‘localised’. That’s a good chunk of England! And a few days previous Yorkshire was on the news for snow. And Aberdeenshire was a bit chilly? And Sennybridge. What counts as cold spell these days? Sure it’s been short and not everyone’s had a foot of snow, and it’s not been the Day After Tomorrow everyone’s been hoping for since the SSW, but come on it has been pretty good in different ways for very different areas of the country as far as a cold spell goes.. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Some excellent posts in here this evening..........

    icon 18z takes the jet further south than previous run .....

    good start 

    So is the pub run out to 114. More amplified. I'll post the 120 when it's out and compare it to the 126 from the 12z....

    Edited by Rocheydub
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    36 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    The heat is on its way winter is over!! ??

    If I had a quid for everytime I've heard that I would now have had enough money to spend some time in a country where winter is not over! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Here we are the 12z 126 and the Pub Run 120hr picture. Definitely better heights to the NW. Not a seismic change, but again, enough to pique the interest for me. 

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.07.17.png

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.07.28.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    Again the 18z 150 chart and the equiv chart from the 12z. Marginally better heights again... A trend? Time will tell. 

     

     

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.16.36.png

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.16.54.png

    Edited by Rocheydub
    Wrong charts
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    Just now, Rocheydub said:

    Again the 18z 144 chart and the equiv chart from the 12z. Marginally better heights again... A trend? Time will tell. 

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.13.35.png

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.14.05.png

    I would say a wedge of height at 96 hours is a pretty big change the jet is about 500 miles further south and the Atlantic is being squeezed 

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    A changeable spell ahead, mild yes, but not exceptionally so, some incursions of colder conditions in the north at times, and in the longer term signs the jet could buckle and take a much more southerly course..

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, damianslaw said:

    A changeable spell ahead, mild yes, but not exceptionally so, some incursions of colder conditions in the north at times, and in the longer term signs the jet could buckle and take a much more southerly course..

    Yes, its one of those situations where we are all looking for a big height rise somewhere to the North because its near the end so time running out, but it could be that a PM or even what we have just had - slider events are actually the route to the next cold spell we go down.

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl
  • Weather Preferences: See if you can guess
  • Location: Somerset/Devon border, 220masl

    In my experience these 'bleak' periods of model watching usually don't last that long before a new rainbow to chase is sighted on the horizon.

    Edited by Bruegelian
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    12 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Here we are the 12z 126 and the Pub Run 120hr picture. Definitely better heights to the NW. Not a seismic change, but again, enough to pique the interest for me. 

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.07.17.png

    Screenshot 2019-02-02 at 22.07.28.png

    I mention this a day are so ago about a wedge of heights developing between the 2 lows one to watch..

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Output poor. I know, but Batman is on the way to rescue the UK winter, pub run T132:

    image.thumb.jpg.e2ba9d19771247821d9987bda2972794.jpg

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    Up to T 120 is a step in the right direction, beyond that isn't bad with heights 5 to 10 mbna higher to our NW up to 168 beyond that I'll ignore as fantasy, but after a mild late Monday into Tuesday cold zonal for the north which could creep back south if the jet is forced further south 

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    F3B04FE8-F5EE-4D23-906C-591DABCBBD68.thumb.png.298de82538732d4a74cab41e6e21ed5c.png

    that could be a crazy storm

     

    the uppers aren’t mild either

    A cold south westerly. The jet stream looks really strong there and is doing a good job at pulling cold air from the US (so to answer my question earlier, it is possible)

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    6 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

    Temperatures back into double digits by the middle of the month. The route to cold looks a long way off. ?

    Nahhh, mid month onwards when things start to become interesting, you must be reading the tea leafs again! ?

    cfs-0-264.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    13 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

    Temperatures back into double digits by the middle of the month. The route to cold looks a long way off. ?

    Thankfully thats all conjecture, so dont need to worry until nearer the time (if indeed there is a need to worry)

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    25 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    F3B04FE8-F5EE-4D23-906C-591DABCBBD68.thumb.png.298de82538732d4a74cab41e6e21ed5c.png

    that could be a crazy storm

     

    the uppers aren’t mild either

    USA cold exiting westward? Feasible...

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent

    18z offers an FI that would be anything but mild.

    Not exceptional cold and nothing that would offer anything but a transient cold snap but it better than previous output and whilst close to 0% chance of verifying, does show that there are other options than just mild zonal type set ups.

    Notable that recent output blast the jet through into western Russia, so we can probably forget the siberian high coming into play (which would be fairly rare anyway) so any easterly would need to come from a toppling Greenland high or a wedge of  heights establishing itself from the north. The 18z operational wouldn't need to evolve that differently for either scenario to come into play.

    For those bemoaning this winter, I have witnessed 3 separate (albeit minor and non-disruptive) snow events this week which is about the same as I witnessed between when I moved to the south east in 1992 to about 2002.

     

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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