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Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    The output is not looking great at the min but there’s no agreement at T120 on gfs and UKMO96DBF178-054C-45F9-98E4-A3CD9C09299B.thumb.gif.5175e141e0372f232208a86cd2ecba9b.gif52713852-6B65-4820-832A-9291B13687FD.thumb.png.9d8e38615535376d914a0a6a1994bf5c.png

    The gfs has more energy around the NW and deeper lows ( not a surprise) . The UKMO has less energy and the lows a lot weaker . That makes them even more apart at T144 . 6370530B-A3C1-4325-854C-2A3030F2A266.thumb.png.94d09bab577b5e8da993d9386163ce9f.pngB0E58200-8608-4B8B-B630-2C0FBDC12BE3.thumb.gif.b8f7839daaf96d479c323add5f0b02d2.gif

    The gfs has a deep low  to are north but the UKMO doesn’t . Don’t know why I’ve bothered explaining all this but there’s not a lot else to say really lol ?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    The dross continues this evening .

    Utterly loathsome outputs so far from a cold perspective. The PV lobe of death remains limpeted to ne Canada .???

    The UKMO wouldn’t be so bad if it shifted about 600 miles further south with the jet at day 6 ! 

    The GEFS upto day 8 are dreadful bar one straggler.

    It can’t get much worse , barring a miracle the next ten days look like a write off for any meaningful cold.

    We await the ECM to see what sort of  dross it  delivers! 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    There was a bit of improvement in the GEFS on the 6z suite, they're back to dross again now.

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    Posted
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Proper winter/Proper summer
  • Location: County Londonderry 36m ASL
    3 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

    I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it!  I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest.  I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5.   Fits with the SSW impacts too.

    Yep

    I’m a winter and summer fan myself. Can’t be arsed with autumn and spring. They’re neither one thing nor the other.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Glad I made the most of the snow during this cold spell, which looks to disappear tomorrow/Monday.  2nd half of February it is, or not!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    The dross continues this evening .

    Utterly loathsome outputs so far from a cold perspective. The PV lobe of death remains limpeted to ne Canada .???

    The UKMO wouldn’t be so bad if it shifted about 600 miles further south with the jet at day 6 ! 

    The GEFS upto day 8 are dreadful bar one straggler.

    It can’t get much worse , barring a miracle the next ten days look like a write off for any meaningful cold.

    We await the ECM to see what sort of  dross it  delivers! 

     

    No wonder met office downgraded their outlook. Just hope they don't get it right for once lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    3 minutes ago, Don said:

    Glad I made the most of the snow during this cold spell, which looks to disappear tomorrow/Monday.  2nd half of February it is, or not!

    Yoire lucky you had that. It never settled here.. Heart breaking. 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    17 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    There was a bit of improvement in the GEFS on the 6z suite, they're back to dross again now.

    They had a go but those runs that amplify are always under pressure from upstream which means we see a mid lat ridge about the best result, possibly a bit more latitude. Not worth the analysis at the moment 

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    I don’t remember the MJO forecasts struggling as much in the Pacific sector as they have this year. All model forecasts constantly at odds with each other, if not in direction of travel, then definitely in intensity.

    GEFS 2FE1E24F-1DA0-4483-8BE3-E43FDA3D81AA.thumb.gif.474faf93c8486912053ee16dbde75dbd.gif

    ECM DCBC26D9-2D5B-4E3B-BF08-F0B89808E593.thumb.gif.3d1543904a713a8b4f51c939a4e41fdc.gif

    JMA 4C131D0B-94BE-4502-8252-E292EDD1DFEE.thumb.gif.78465058d69888f7adbe38636e9336dd.gif

    Same back in early January as well.

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    Posted
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
  • Location: Arklow on the East coast of Ireland
    2 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

    No wonder met office downgraded their outlook. Just hope they don't get it right for once lol

    Tbh,they haven't a clue

    Forecasts from met services  beyond 7 days are a waste of time due to being right as often as the proverbial stopped clock

    Learned this year that less is known about strat influence than ever and less still about other teleconnections 

    Certainly not enough for forecasts

    Even Roger Smith's seasonal forecast depended on winds from the north or east and MUCH colder than this last week

    Its not going to happen as planned but of course could still in the wasteland dregs of winter

    So yeah a lot of dishwashing I think

    Back to science and 7 days out only we go (or anyone with sense goes and I don't mean disrespect there because I'll still look too)

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    They had a go but those runs that amplify are always under pressure from upstream which means we see a mid lat ridge about the best result, possibly a bit more latitude. Not worth the analysis at the moment 

    Yes, they were a little bit better than i thought, and some were gaining latitude at the end, i do think its worth analysing though, however slim our last chance is, it is our last chance so we need to see some big ridges being thrown up so worthy of the analysis based on desperation and the op runs being the apropos of Jack Onions.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Just when we could do the the cold hunt hotting-up it goes cold...And I need be careful, lest I get an unfortunate attack of Trump Finger!?

    Shaky'll just love these new emoji‼️⁉️‼️?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Para thrown up a very good N'ly, could be followed by NE then E flow, either way though, its a big T850 outlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    An fi tease from the para ......

    Straw to clutch is we have seen the GFS Ops show a similiar trend at this timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Para thrown up a very good N'ly, could be followed by NE then E flow, either way though, its a big T850 outlier.

    Just eye candy for now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    An fi tease from the para ......

    Yep nice run in FI at least there’s something to discuss lol . 

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    87C6E912-C582-4FEC-B540-08BA32863C56.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    An fi tease from the para ......

    image.thumb.png.d6bc9078d25e5d0ea9168b60b7b720fa.png

    Don't blame you though....?

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Now we’ve just gotta count this down . It shouldn’t be to much drama ?

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    F9936546-57CD-475B-86E4-769C2B4C50DA.png

    5A7512D2-F2B0-4E11-85DE-34EFBE42CCD8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

    What could possibly go wrong

    at least the para is a start 

    something’s gotta start surely

    15th feb I feel is the date we could be in luck

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Seen as it’s the word of the day. DROSS

    A979BFDF-4886-4877-AA25-C5280ECD70F9.png

    Yep, no escaping it!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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