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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

Still not updated from what I can see showing yesterday's 12z

Yes thought so, because i tried E as well, its always behind on Internetexplorer and google chrome. so to cut a long story short, others get it before me (particularly you usually, like you do the 30 dayer.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes thought so, because i tried E as well, its always behind on Internetexplorer and google chrome. so to cut a long story short, others get it before me (particularly you usually, like you do the 30 dayer.

Looking at the meteologix ones, I wouldn’t be too bothered to see them  

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Looking at the meteologix ones, I wouldn’t be too bothered to see them  

Just have to hope the GEFS are ahead of the game then because they go out further (a big ask i know)

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1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

Morning!!..

The big deviant for our part (telecon)..

=PNA.

the signal atm is clear and notable 2 see why we have rapidly converted and lost the desirable blocking formats!!!

Look @how the pacific placement has leaned away and for now scuppered/and thrown the positive teleconect signal into chaos..

We no longer (for now) have a desirable punch of angle @/around the pacific mid/western seaboard...its an angle of misery-placing pressure on the canadian/american lobe..yet unfavourably..again-for now, and aligns the jet (as modeled) with a steep run into the nirthern americas-and a sharp forcing of an-atlantic boom jet...rite across the atlantic...and YES at us!!

The PNA has been particularly stubborn This season and has thrown many a medium to longer range forecast out of the window.

The feeling was that the developing EN+ would create more of a negative pattern and this would then allow tropical forcing to deliver more northern blocking.

This hasn't happened, so that is one of the questions that will be asked.

@TEITS makes a fair point about how do we know if the questions asked about what happened this year are the correct ones and how the answers will be correct. The answer is that we don't. It's about gathering informational and unfortunately the weather obviously doesn't allow us to run controlled experiments! 

I think one are of focus is the combination of descending Westerly QBO and SSW. No doubt there will be analysis done on this over the next year and it all adds to existing information.

If longer range forecasting was easy it would be dull. The interest lies in trying to crack the code!

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1 hour ago, Team Jo said:

Thanks. I’m pretty well versed in sun angles. Fairly sure we have had significant heat in August, though so not sure what your point is aside from trying to pick an argument? 🤷🏻‍♀️

The problem is that many people are in denial here about what's normally average weather in march and seems to expect it to save the winter every year which is not the case. Statistics shows that the coldest period is between 15 Jan- 15 Feb so something should/must  happen now if we want real winter to arrive for a longer period

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47 minutes ago, Jason M said:

GEFS have a bias towards Greenland heights at very long range so that needs to be factored in. The amount of times you see greens and yellows over Greenland post 300 hours is ridiculous. They rarely amount to anything though.

Strong southern euro heights is pretty much nailed on out to mid month I'd have thought. 

It could be that the push of extra cold air from North America is enough to change the pattern to one that allows heights to build across southern Europe as you say, but I don't think it's nailed on.

The Siberian high, although it may not directly affect us, can certainly ridge far enough west to slow the Atlantic and leave us in the middle.

Worth keeping an eye o. n

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2 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

The problem is that many people are in denial here about what's normally average weather in march and seems to expect it to save the winter every year which is not the case. Statistics shows that the coldest period is between 15 Jan- 15 Feb so something should/must  happen now if we want real winter to arrive for a longer period

The same can be said about cold periods in average winters. Long cold spells are rare and particularly cold spells such as last year are rarer. Spells like we've just had are more common. But, February tends to be more blocked on average so chances are greater for a cold spell.

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Looking at the GEFS 6z, there are a few much colder runs with -10 850's..not as vile looking as the 00z. the mean is a touch colder overall but I would be lying if I said there isn't plenty of mild as well.

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4 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

The problem is that many people are in denial here about what's normally average weather in march and seems to expect it to save the winter every year which is not the case. Statistics shows that the coldest period is between 15 Jan- 15 Feb so something should/must  happen now if we want real winter to arrive for a longer period

Your statistics are right enough, FS...But, your assertion about peeps being 'in denial', about March' is utter tosh!

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Here is my thoughts for the snowfall situation in Europe. You can assume that a -NAO setup will be ideal for a snow lover in the U.K.

https://longrangesnowcenter.blogspot.com/2019/02/europe-on-long-term-2nd-feb.html

"All and all, the models show a increasingly snowy Northern Alps. But I expect a -NAO setup in the last two weeks of the month and into the early days of March, that tends to support the Southern Alps (and the UK) in terms of snowfall and building troughing scenarios. In the medium term, we should see an atmosphere conducive to snowfall across the Northern Alps, and perhaps as we move forward, more so towards Austria, at least expect more cold there if anything."

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The longer term cold signal (second half of feb) looks to have perked up a bit and still a large carrot being dangled for late feb / early march..similar to last year actually!!..in the meantime, it looks predominantly unsettled with alternating mild / cold zonality with a broadly westerly upper flow..still a risk of hill snow at times, especially further north and occasional quieter interludes with widespread frosts..could be worse.😉👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Next week could be very wet in some spots if GFS is right as the Atlantic kicks into gear NE Scotland and SE England see the least rain

Some areas which had snow this week could end up with flooding next week

1111135345_DyZ3NtJW0AERxrZ.jpglarge.thumb.jpg.2fccd80be7a28510faacd453715f1af1.jpg

Snow mainly reserved for the high ground in Scotland

 

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I've only given the models a cursory glance today, but my opinion is that if we are to get a substantially blocked pattern later in February,  and I think there's a good chance of that, we will probably experience a period of much milder weather in between times, so it's a question now of looking for the first signs of that blocking taking hold in the latter stages of GFS, FV3 and the ensembles.

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3 hours ago, TEITS said:

I agree with the rest of your post. However my argument with the above is if we struggle to use the signals to make a forecast then how can we be sure we are correct in analysing how it went wrong. For example even last years beast from the east seems to cause some debate whether it was caused by the SSW or MJO or both? Even when I look back at the incredible Greenland High during Dec 2009,2010 I am not sure what allowed such blocking for Dec.

Love the puddycat TEITS 😍  i wouldn't know where to start with any of it but I'm sure all you good folk on here with so much knowledge will make a good attempt to decipher it.  I wonder whether it's like having all your ducks sitting pretty in a row and along comes an eagle and takes them all out.  I'm sure it's not that simple but is it a case of you can have so many positive variables working towards a cold pattern but along comes a negative variable, which is so influential, it over rides the other positive ones.

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I think another thing to consider is just how dry it has been for quite some time, especially in the SE. Some brief wetter interludes, but it has generally been below average rainfall for most of the past year. 

If we have another dry summer then water shortages seem almost certain at some point. Might as well get some rain in now!

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10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it!  I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest.  I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5.   Fits with the SSW impacts too.

Goto to agree Mike, straight from winter to summer suits me just fine. And Yeh there are still signals for a back end winter, not sure it will be as severe as last year, but perhaps more extended! 2013 springs to mind.

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25 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I agree with most of this, but take issue with the bit in bold, last year was brilliant in that we didn't have a spring, straight from winter to summer, that's how I like it!  I love both the extreme seasons and don't get enthused by either spring or autumn to be honest.  I think we may be looking at an extension of winter into March given the long range models such as CFS and GloSea5.   Fits with the SSW impacts too.

Are these the same SSW impacts that we've all been waiting on since xmas/new year? 

I can't help but think that we have seen the last of the snowy weather for this winter. 

It simply wasn't 'our turn' this time.

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4 hours ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

en on this dire run there is a chance for snow up north in Scotland 

untitled.png

that’s nothing unusual about Scotland getting snow even in those dire runs they get snow in most average winters anyway. 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
Syed’s reply appeared inside the quote box

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5 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Are these the same SSW impacts that we've all been waiting on since xmas/new year? 

I can't help but think that we have seen the last of the snowy weather for this winter. 

It simply wasn't 'our turn' this time.

Its been one hell of a slow downwelling, Europe got the starter course, USA have just had the main course, and wiat for it blighty is about to get there just deserts!! The fat lady may be in rehearsals, but I ain't heard her sing yet! 😉

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2 hours ago, WhiteFox said:

The same can be said about cold periods in average winters. Long cold spells are rare and particularly cold spells such as last year are rarer. Spells like we've just had are more common. But, February tends to be more blocked on average so chances are greater for a cold spell.

very true as febuary moves on the pv starts to loose its grip with the days getting longer and  the sun stronger we have a far greater chance of some blocking highs we just need a bit of luck for any to be in a favorable postion 

Edited by igloo

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Ukmo days 5/6 showing a wedge of sorts around greeny .....very weak but could keep the jet flatter and potentially more se with some luck ! 

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