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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! The long-feared return of Old Man Bartlett?

image.thumb.png.db4246e8213fdd954b416e435275d3ac.png

Welcome back, Old Chap...You miserable old git!:help:

Yes ed I'd forgotten about that cretin!!! Looks good for med tho.🙄

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Might be a stupid question, but considering how cold the US is across the Atlantic, shouldn't the strong western winds bring some of that cold along with them? I know we have the atlantic in between, but with ground temperatures in the US below -20 (or even -30), isn't it strange how it isn't even going to be remotely cold over here in the western flow?

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1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Might be a stupid question, but considering how cold the US is across the Atlantic, shouldn't the strong western winds bring some of that cold along with them? I know we have the atlantic in between, but with ground temperatures in the US below -20 (or even -30), isn't it strange how it isn't even going to be remotely cold over here in the western flow?

Not a stupid question.the cold spell is diminishing over there but the distance is too great ie temp moderation.greenland gets extremely cold and even that gets quite modified on its route to the UK.

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Morning!!..

The big deviant for our part (telecon)..

=PNA.

the signal atm is clear and notable 2 see why we have rapidly converted and lost the desirable blocking formats!!!

Look @how the pacific placement has leaned away and for now scuppered/and thrown the positive teleconect signal into chaos..

We no longer (for now) have a desirable punch of angle @/around the pacific mid/western seaboard...its an angle of misery-placing pressure on the canadian/american lobe..yet unfavourably..again-for now, and aligns the jet (as modeled) with a steep run into the nirthern americas-and a sharp forcing of an-atlantic boom jet...rite across the atlantic...and YES at us!!

Obviously at this point(4 now) shutting the door firmly on any decent chances for pockets off waa..2 develop into a block situ.

HOWEVER!!!

again this response is 1 with a little time can rapidly change..

As momentum gains..

And as have HINTED here and there throughout-some latest data...then the foe quickly becomes friend again..especialy with some eye catching russian warmth which looks a stubborn plot...

Although-atm via mods an unlikely scenario...keep a firm eye on the geographical points...and look for an engagement of the pair (psrtial or otherwise...across the polar field...

My humble pie-remains on the shelf @marks and sparks STILL..

have a good day people.

 

TI..

Thanks for a good post...

I understood it 100% and I agree with it.

I am sure I agree with most of your posts, but I am never certain.

Keep it up.😁

MIA 

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23 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Might be a stupid question, but considering how cold the US is across the Atlantic, shouldn't the strong western winds bring some of that cold along with them? I know we have the atlantic in between, but with ground temperatures in the US below -20 (or even -30), isn't it strange how it isn't even going to be remotely cold over here in the western flow?

If we had a direct strong feed across the Atlantic as per a week or two ago, then those cold uppers would arrive at around -8c around nw Scotland. But we don’t so it gets modified for a long time and mixed out. 

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1 hour ago, noonoo418 said:

I have to admit as a lurker and long time reader of these forums, I am delighted that things look woeful.....it seems more often than not that when all seems lost, a couple of days later one of the models picks up a new signal and the hunt starts again. We have seen it time and time again....fingers crossed the next signal will be the one we're all looking for....in the meantime, enjoy the remnants of what we've had and hopefully come the new working week, things will look far more promising!

Absolutely agree. It's a bit like tears they hurt and make you look stupid but afterwards you feel refreshed and ready to start again. And yes, it can act like a restart button to better things. Agreed

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GFS control is dire. That said, GEFS are not quite as bad as I thought they would be. It would be a stretch to say they are good but there remains just a glimmer of hope as still some uncertainty in the mid term.

A few runs do bring heights at more northerly latitudes. Looking across the output this morning though I do wonder if we could see some exceptional warmth as we approach mid month if heights raise over Iberia as currently look odds on. Maybe post that a brief window for an easterly? 

 

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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

GFS control is dire. That said, GEFS are not quite as bad as I thought they would be. It would be a stretch to say they are good but there remains just a glimmer of hope as still some uncertainty in the mid term.

A few runs do bring heights at more northerly latitudes. Looking across the output this morning though I do wonder if we could see some exceptional warmth as we approach mid month if heights raise over Iberia as currently look odds on. Maybe post that a brief window for an easterly? 

 

They are actually very good at D16, maybe not in graph form, thats because at D16 some are transitioning towards a HLB from a MLB, even a few of the bad ones would go on to give NW winds with decent uppers, the graph would look good at D20 in my opinion, a step in the right direction, if maintained for the next 24-48 hours then a big step.

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Nothing good about today's 06Z...But, hey, it's weather; and trying make a forecast (based on a single model-run) is akin to repairing a chocolate teapot with non-stick glue...?👍

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They are actually very good at D16, maybe not in graph form, thats because at D16 some are transitioning towards a HLB from a MLB, even a few of the bad ones would go on to give NW winds with decent uppers, the graph would look good at D20 in my opinion, a step in the right direction, if maintained for the next 24-48 hours then a big step.

Indeed - this is the kind of set-up we wish every winter...

gensnh-21-5-384.png

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Just now, mulzy said:

Indeed - this is the kind of set-up we wish every winter...

gensnh-21-5-384.png

Not a great Euro profile looking at that but as i say, they were in transition, a good few would have dropped a trough into Europe within 3 days.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not a great Euro profile looking at that but as i say, they were in transition, a good few would have dropped a trough into Europe within 3 days.

Agreed - The EPS has much stronger Euro heights.  Maybe the GEFS ahead of the game here?

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Just now, mulzy said:

Agreed - The EPS has much stronger Euro heights.  Maybe the GEFS ahead of the game here?

Didn't know the eps was still crap, can't get the london graph, it won't update.

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If the 12z gefs have as many reversing members as the 06z then my attention is aroused ..........

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Agreed - The EPS has much stronger Euro heights.  Maybe the GEFS ahead of the game here?

GEFS have a bias towards Greenland heights at very long range so that needs to be factored in. The amount of times you see greens and yellows over Greenland post 300 hours is ridiculous. They rarely amount to anything though.

Strong southern euro heights is pretty much nailed on out to mid month I'd have thought. 

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^^

Even more so aroused if the EPS have likewise.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

^^

Even more so aroused if the EPS have likewise.

That's far too much information for a Saturday morning 😱

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1 minute ago, Jason M said:

That's far too much information for a Saturday morning 😱

Sorry - i meant it in response to BA's post.

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Can anyone get the weathercast London ECM ens graph please?

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Good morning.

Well it looks as though neither the wolves, moon nor earthquakes were able to turn the 06z output around. A South westerly flow still looks very likely on the 10th of February, although how mild it will be is still up for question. Hopefully P13 will be picking up on something none of the others are yet!

image.thumb.png.624235548064fcaaac50ea578f248fd9.pngimage.thumb.png.28d250ea5cca21cb3f4cce691e9eafc6.png  

Later on many of the runs go for mild anticyclonic, so nothing much to highlight here really.

image.thumb.png.2940cbf42a1bd4712df90d2927e3267c.png

I've mentioned in previous days that we want to avoid a warm eastern USA and cold NE Canada and the global temperature anomalies show how this can power up the North Atlantic. We can see cold temperature anomalies to the south of Greenland and warm anomalies just to the south of them. The active Atlantic shouldn't be much of a surprise....

image.thumb.png.7adb1d619e2e022f0c725128fc09d577.png

Come on  P13!

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Can anyone get the weathercast London ECM ens graph please?

Still not updated from what I can see showing yesterday's 12z

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