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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

  As @knocker says there is so much information to learn from this winter, the background signals etc that did or didn't come together favourably for the UK and all these variables will absolutely add to the body of knowledge for the future.  

I agree with the rest of your post. However my argument with the above is if we struggle to use the signals to make a forecast then how can we be sure we are correct in analysing how it went wrong. For example even last years beast from the east seems to cause some debate whether it was caused by the SSW or MJO or both? Even when I look back at the incredible Greenland High during Dec 2009,2010 I am not sure what allowed such blocking for Dec.

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13 minutes ago, Supacell said:

March 18th last year ... just saying 😋20180318_070710.thumb.jpg.1fc03de373e415c72735d91286190d37.jpg

20180318_084300.thumb.jpg.9b1e00bf2ef2d53430dd516653f730fc.jpg

Those photo's are clearly fabricated. We never ever get any snow after the end of feb, meteorological winter is finished remember 😛

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Medium-term and seasonal forecasting has come a long way.  Yes, there is still a long way to go and for now and maybe for the foreseeable,  these forecasts will be probabilistic but to say these forecasts should be dismissed out of hand is rather Luddite in thinking.  

The current NWP (remember NWP is not the panacea in the medium term too) has most likely over-reacted to the strength of the westerly signal.  Expect that to be pared back over the next few days.

Edited by mulzy
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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Medium-term and seasonal forecasting has come a long way.  Yes, there is still a long way to go and for now and maybe for the foreseeable,  these forecasts will be probabilistic but to say these forecasts should be dismissed out of hand is rather Luddite in thinking.  

The current NWP (remember NWP is not the panacea in the medium term too) has most likely over-reacted to the strength of the westerly signal.  Expect that to be pared back over the next few days.

6z GFS already much different at day 6.

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45 minutes ago, Supacell said:

March 18th last year ... just saying 😋20180318_070710.thumb.jpg.1fc03de373e415c72735d91286190d37.jpg

20180318_084300.thumb.jpg.9b1e00bf2ef2d53430dd516653f730fc.jpg

Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March. Last March in Exeter was an epic snowfall.

Edited by West is Best
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8 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

It is Groundhog day today. I wonder what Punxsutawney Phil will say later.

Looking at the output so far today..he won't see his shadow..:whistling:

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40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm quite simply baffled by the current model output with weather being modelled the opposite of what I feel should be occurring. 

All very strange.

 

Totally agree something is having a major influence over our weather going against alot of background signals. I'm wondering if the EARTH'S magnetic North Pole that is dramatically shifting by as much as 30 miles per year is actually having an influence in all this? Even in January there was an emergency gps update. Has there been any study in the earth magnetic field during extreme weather events in the past? 

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41 minutes ago, Supacell said:

The hottest day ever recorded in the UK occurred in August 🤔

What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

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Just now, West is Best said:

Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March.

Totally agree I think we will have a bit of a faux spring period in the next week or so then maybe one short sharp last blast of winter by the end of Feb? 

 

As for the amateurs who do the long range forecasts much kudos for doing them , but we should be able to comment on them good or bad - if they had been correct the plaudits would have rightly been going to them but the opposite holds also? 

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8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

6z GFS already much different at day 6.

Good, bad or ugly??

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if the weather in this country was predictable this forum wouldn't exist in the way it does now....

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Just now, fromey said:

Good, bad or ugly??

A bit better so far... at least we seem to be keeping negative upper temperatures for most of the first 180h

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2 minutes ago, fromey said:

Good, bad or ugly??

Better, but maybe just delaying the dross!

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12 hours ago, Devonshire said:

In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

 

That’s the mother of ‘day ten’ potential 😄👏🏻

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43 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

The enquiring mind seeks to understand things like we have ended up with the pattern we have.

The cynic seeks nothing but to ridicule everyone else. 

I’d love to learn why things turned out like this. I think being cynical stems from so many disappointments. But ridicule - don’t see any of that - not from me anyway. I actually said that I enjoy reading posts from the more enthusiastic cold posters.

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6z gfs following the 0z . generally west to east jet so all in all standard set up and temps altho above average 

Edited by swfc
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1AM temperatures... ouch! Even looking towards Russia and eastern Europe, looks unseasonably warm there

untitled.png

Edited by edinburgh_1992
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Oh dear! The long-feared return of Old Man Bartlett?

image.thumb.png.db4246e8213fdd954b416e435275d3ac.png

Welcome back, Old Chap...You miserable old git!:help:

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20 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

Average July CET 16.6

Average August CET 16.3

So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?

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Ignore the models, they are luring you into a false sense of security, any day now, they will flip, showing charts akin to the day after tomorrow, and 3hrs later, bruce willis will appear in snowmegeddon

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16 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

Although I do not want to derail the thread, my point is that it is absurd to write off winter at the beginning of Feb and likewise to assume summer is over at the beginning of August, although I am aware some choose to. The sun is getting lower in the sky by August as compared to June but on average August is warmer than June in the UK.

20190202_104609.thumb.jpg.1d13453b0db64620c07a66ed9671fbfe.jpg

 

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1 hour ago, kold weather said:

 

At the moment I'm getting a distinctive Feb 1998 feeling from the models. I suspect it won't look anywhere near that bad 

February 1998 was a pretty decent month it has to be said, IMO, at least away from western Scotland. Yes it was excepionally mild but it was very dry overall and there were a couple absolutely gorgeous gentle sunny days. If you can't get the snow and cold, I would rather have that than another February 1997 and 2014.

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1 minute ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

Average July CET 16.6

Average August CET 16.3

So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?

Here it differs 2,5 degrees average high temperature between July and august and i did not mention about february but march. You are grasping at straws here 

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