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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Well that woke the werewolves up lol, and given team one liner more to one line about haha..........but definitely NOT the thread to be discussing, whatever your views!

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

It could be worse the 18z has euro heights and a long fetch westerly but without the warm upppers

Stop dragging the thread off topic!  🤣

FWIW nonsense aside I think the models are still struggling at the moment and I am expecting some kind of height rise to our North Or North East (wedge if you like) to pop up in the next 7 to 10 days.  The 0z runs have been toying with this idea?

Just a hunch nothing more before I get shot down....

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

So this is my last look in FI of the pub run, you can clearly see the amplification of heights rising over Greenland pushing the low spinning off Eastern CONUS more southerly. A very typical downwelling pressure rise (if you ask me, but you're probably not!)

 

Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.27.13.png

Fair point ....the 12z just looked too compact. 

this current cold spell with its two heightened risk periods for snowfall were well signposted on the extended eps.....currently there is nothing obvious but perhaps that’s to do with higher heights taking more control as we go through feb 

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2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

So this is my last look in FI of the pub run, you can clearly see the amplification of heights rising over Greenland pushing the low spinning off Eastern CONUS more southerly. A very typical downwelling pressure rise (if you ask me, but you're probably not!)

 

Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.27.13.png

Certainly scope for growth of those heights.

 

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7 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing  🧐  - some evidence (for you to deny):

 

I'm so glad I studied astronomy as an undergraduate!

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E945571F-ED87-4358-8F3C-160140E8F1E4.thumb.png.9fdb583af466b44f62301c5fa43aa94a.png

not seen to many long fetch south westerlies with sub zero 850’s

domthing isn’t sitting right with these outputs atm

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

domthing isn’t sitting right with these outputs atm

Domthing isn't right with your spelling!!

And yes, I did proof read this before posting!

As I said before, no expert, but I've seen downwelling heights before and they look just like that!!! Out of nowhere!!!

Dammit, I'm getting my hopes up again!!!

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Time to bring out the Barbecues :oldrofl:

GFSOPEU18_384_1.thumb.png.0b3f0f3128cf97396dd8c85406b8de2a.png

In all seriousness hopefully something appears soon as others have been saying maybe these 'odd' outputs are about to lead to something interesting and they are sniffing something out then again that's been said before. 

Edited by Summerstorm
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2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Time to bring out the Barbecues :oldrofl:

GFSOPEU18_384_1.thumb.png.0b3f0f3128cf97396dd8c85406b8de2a.png

That would end up as Northern blocking if it went out further, watch the evolution from 372 to 384.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That would end up as Northern blocking if it went out further, watch the evolution from 372 to 384.

Was thinking that too the evolution just looks a bit odd and thought it was going to create some HLB at 324/336 hrs but obviously this all academic at this range of course. At least we are seeing something to look though as the last few model runs haven't been great to say the least. 

Edited by Summerstorm

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Only a few members on here now pointing to cold.

image.thumb.png.5a9bb8f8e11db9b6e0137425498f8b91.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

And Dean from the Met on twitter posted that the SSW was so severe in its impacts on the trop that it was blocking the MJO signal. I’m lost on that one - it’s an interesting view and probably reveals my lack of understanding....but conceptually I don’t understand what he means by that, and it feels a bit contentious.

 

 

I think sometimes an SSW may work against us? If we get a split vortex then the lobes may fall into the wrong place? If one happens to fall into NE Canada than that may well just power up the jet. The temperature anomaly patterns certainly suggest that there has been an increase in cold air spilling from the arctic into mid-high latitudes

image.thumb.png.538eae18fcc8c1a5043a78df4bd78d21.png

Perhaps we were just in the wrong place?

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1 minute ago, Summerstorm said:

Was thinking that too the evolution just looks a bit odd and thought it was going to create some HLB at 324/336 hrs but obviously this all academic at this range of course.

Oh yes, totally academic, i would rather see 3 or 4 GEFS members than the GFS op suggesting cold.

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36 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

no problem - that is a usual reaction to facts that are hard to swallow 🧐

Indeed, and not knowing the difference between an earthquake and a volcanic eruption nullifies all that has gone before.

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Not been in here much last couple of days, snow issues!   ❄️

Nothing in the operational runs tonight suggests to me they have got any idea beyond day 5,  so it is very much all to watch for.  JMA T264 certainly looks interesting:

image.thumb.jpg.9a055634f1aa2896380525f3929376d0.jpg

NH now primed for blocking following the downwelling from the SSW and will be for weeks, just need to get the vagaries of the jet stream give a chance in the vicinity of the UK and a suitable block will result.  I make it sound so easy, maybe I'm snow day drunk! 🍺 

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there...and your claims about climate go against what 97% of the scientific community think... I know who I'd rather trust. However maybe the moon and earthquakes will make our winters great again!

Not sure about earthquakes but a good point about volcanic eruptions, whenmt krakatoa erupted in 1883, Northern hemisphere temperatures fell by over 1 degree and weather patterns were chaotic for years!! 

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52 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing  🧐  - some evidence (for you to deny):

 

Could you please post your highly intelligent wisdom in the numerous Climate Change threads. 

Edited by parrotingfantasist
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Ridiculous output, the same old gfs garbage spewed out week after week, 2 weeks ago literally all the models showed mega cold and easterlies and snow from every angle! With in 24 hours after icon latched on to something all the models backtracked. Now 2 weeks on we have bloody bartlett scenarios showing up, what's stopping another drastic flip back in the next few days, absolutely nothing, you can go on all night about what the extended EPS are showing, or not showing, all the positive signs of the other week were undone in 24 hours. Anyway rant over, I've noticed my girlfriends horses are eating more hay and drinking much more water, they did this last year prior to the beast!! And like she said to me they no more than the models, so there you have it, strait from the horses mouth. All of those who had snow send me a pic, I'm snow starved I need cheering up. 🙄😏

 

Edited by Mattwolves
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It is strange how the predicted HLB has failed to materialise. Even more so when you consider the ease at which it did so in 2009--2010. Bit of an enigma really this weather lark.

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Ridiculous output, the same old gfs garbage spewed out week after week, 2 weeks ago literally all the models showed mega cold and easterlies and snow from every angle! With in 24 hours after icon latched on to something all the models backtracked. Now 2 weeks on we have bloody bartlett scenarios showing up, what's stopping another drastic flip back in the next few days, absolutely nothing, you can go on all night about what the extended EPS are showing, or not showing, all the positive signs of the other week were undone in 24 hours. Anyway rant over, I've noticed my girlfriends horses are eating more hay and drinking much more water, they did this last year prior to the beast!! And like she said to me they no more than the models, so there you have it, strait from the horses mouth. All of those who had snow send me a pic, I'm snow starved I need cheering up. 🙄😏

 

Love from Cornwall

IMG_20190201_091257_944.jpg

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Think it might be best to not bother with this thread tonight and leave the knee-jerk reactionaries to burn themselves out. Mid-Feb looks very interesting. No doubt things will start looking interesting very soon.

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9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Think it might be best to not bother with this thread tonight and leave the knee-jerk reactionaries to burn themselves out. Mid-Feb looks very interesting. No doubt things will start looking interesting very soon.

I agree, i think I'm going to give the models a rest for a while as the output is just depressing at the moment. Just as I start thinking to myself "-4 uppers, could be worse, at least it'll feel wintry", the models hit me back with raging southwesterlies. Hopefully by next weekend we should start seeing some clearer signals in the right direction. 

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Poor euro tonight with the Atlantic too strong and tilted positively. The single crumb of comfort is that we keep the Russian High and it is further west at day 10 than day 5.

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