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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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28 minutes ago, nobble said:

Even in the very poor winter of 15/16

i got falling and a partial covering of snow twice in early April !!

This has been a great winter, it's completely redeemed itself since 7:57pm last night! 18cm here

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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I have the pig .....anyone have any lipstick ??

euro high signal grows by the run ....... we can hope that there are some confusing upstream signals .....

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, kold weather said:

By the way, if you've never heard of a Bartlett, here is it in all of its glory:

CFSR_1_1998021200_1.png

Looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS at 348hrs, though not quite as textbook as that! That is the mild fans version of the beast, and equally as rare!

Oh mister Bartlett, what can I do...I wanted seventy-feet of snow, and I don't know what to do...?

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh mister Bartlett, what can I do...I wanted seventy-feet of snow, and I don't know what to do...?

Bit of an eyeopener but then again more so when I realised it was the CFS. What are we yanking those charts out for?

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Based on the evidence you have seen in the last 45 minutes, how long can we rule out a decent UK cold spell for?

best I can see is a uk ridge by day 10. However, ec is progging the MJO into a strong phase 8 by the 5th which should be euro trough and high anoms to the nw - so perhaps a week of zonal flow followed by a nw euro high taking us to mid month ......and then something might emerge .......I haven’t had much faith in the MJO analogues this season though ...........

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

best I can see is a uk ridge by day 10. However, ec is progging the MJO into a strong phase 8 by the 5th which should be euro trough and high anoms to the nw - so perhaps a week of zonal flow followed by a nw euro high taking us to mid month ......and then something might emerge .......I haven’t had much faith in the MJO analogues this season though ...........

I tell you something Nick, it'll be fascinating doing the analysis on this winter come March. Catacol summed it up perfectly earlier. 

For whatever reason, we've been thwarted time and again by the N jet arm barrelling over any fledgling blocking. 

Looking at the output as things stand, one gets the feeling we'll ascend into an early spring BUT we still have hope of seeing one more cold spell IMO. We have to hope we see the operationals latch on to something over the coming days to give us all something to follow and 'hunt' 

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Unusual weather to say the least.  Thursday in Toronto it was the coldest day on record -35c with heavy snow and now it +8c on Saturday and they are scared of flooding due to a fast thaw!!

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I don't pretend to know much about the weather or the computer models.but I don't like this time of the year when people start putting winter's over/ sun getting stronger/mild for weeks plus all the bickering that is now going on it's really off putting nobody can say winters over you only have to look at last year 27th February here on the Isle of Sheppey north kent we had a week of school closures and snow with a night low of - 10 yes it doesn't happen that often but it can back to the models just question I was looking at bret Andersons Canadian monthly update for Feb and he said he thinks the worst of the extreme cold is over for Eastern Canada now over not saying it won't still be cold there but would this have any help for us and blocking in the weeks to come? Hopefully we might see some more seens like this that we got here last year.?

IMG-20180301-WA0003.jpg

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Maybe the cold SST's in the Greenland/Iceland vicinity has aided some cyclogenesis in that area, we have certainly seen low pressure development at a higher latitude from the Canadian PV lobe in that area this January? I remember Gav P mentioning this before the winter and somebody else bringing up recent years Atlantic anomalies (2013 to now) and the cold anomaly continuing in the northern part of the North Atlantic.

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Edited by Froze were the Days
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OK, eyes down for the pub run. Any time I've done this in recent weeks, I've picked up changes in the run early on that have huge effects to the global picture... Here's hoping the same can be said for tonight!!! Crossing fingers, toes, legs and arms.... Well, maybe not my fingers, I need them to type!

Edited by Rocheydub
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Hello Folks! A recap on the last 24 hours , Computer models got it right , for southern uk  for snow, but got it Horribly wrong today with a forecast which gave a decaying front , and instead the front intensified and gave many places in central southern England many inches of snow.! So a Bust from the models today and the met office etc! As regards extreme weather , the Planet is very used to that , have a look back in history books, and the solar and lunar activity will bring us to more extreme weather and colder tempertures  not to mention some more Violent and increasing Volcanic and earthquake activity....! But anyway that's for a discussion for the ever growing Scientists , in for a cooling planet.... On to the Outlook, the jet stream is in charge Business as usual for the uk....?

m3.png

m3x.png

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37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

best I can see is a uk ridge by day 10. However, ec is progging the MJO into a strong phase 8 by the 5th which should be euro trough and high anoms to the nw - so perhaps a week of zonal flow followed by a nw euro high taking us to mid month ......and then something might emerge .......I haven’t had much faith in the MJO analogues this season though ...........

But there's a very mild set of EC Ensembles Nick.  to counterbalance this prognosis.

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No change of any significance on Icon 120 18z as opposed to 126 from 12z. Maybe a tad (just a smidgen) better heights in Greenland and towards Scandi, and the low to our west less strong and disrupting, but nothing to get excited about, just inter run variances.

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Total newbie, 1st post, so play nice! 

Started following this forum at the start of the year as I was curious as to the affects of the recent SSW, hoping for a repeat of last year. Boy did I not know what I was in for!! 

I feel like a crackhead on a rollercoaster trying to shoot up.......... serious hit and miss!! 

On a serious note, I have learnt much from all of you, the serious guys, the rampers, the nay-sayers and everyone inbetween. Reading the brilliant,witty posts has become almost as addictive as waiting for the runs to reveal the next "potential"   (+10 days out....obviously!)

My knowledge has increased massively following this forum, even if I am now further away from being close to understanding anything............. definitely enjoying the ride! 

Question 1: Does this forum switch to the Southern Hemisphere when Spring arrives?    

Question 2: "Cold Hunt - Models and Chat" Is it me, or does this forum name have a totally different meaning in Cockney Rhyming Slang???

Cheers.

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8 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

How can people have so much faith in the models beyond 5 days if they couldn't even predict a snow event in South England/Wales within 24 hours.

Micro/macro 

they predicted this week brilliantly well from two weeks out re a euro upper trough headed in  from the nw 

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23 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello Folks! A recap on the last 24 hours , Computer models got it right , for southern uk  for snow, but got it Horribly wrong today with a forecast which gave a decaying front , and instead the front intensified and gave many places in central southern England many inches of snow.! So a Bust from the models today and the met office etc! As regards extreme weather , the Planet is very used to that , have a look back in history books, and the solar and lunar activity will bring us to more extreme weather and colder tempertures  not to mention some more Violent and increasing Volcanic and earthquake activity....! But anyway that's for a discussion for the ever growing Scientists , in for a cooling planet.... On to the Outlook, the jet stream is in charge Business as usual for the uk....?

m3.png

m3x.png

Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there...and your claims about climate go against what 97% of the scientific community think... I know who I'd rather trust. However maybe the moon and earthquakes will make our winters great again!

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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