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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So here we have it, Day 16: a goat-shaped Euroslug and The Lobe of St Bartholomew, scalpel in hand and peeling-off members' skin - one piece at a time!

    image.thumb.png.286068c7284faf3879332c0c3439f1d5.pngimage.thumb.png.e5bf9e9e5a3fa3f7d576014d1da8ff2f.png  

    OUCH!?

     

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    With the GFSp showing some trough disruption at 144 and everything after that being FI I think the chances of a return to cold/snow as february progresses are quite high.worth reading Matt Hugo's tweet in the relevant thread

    . I,ve had 8cms snow here close to the south coast without a high latitude block in sight, 

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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    So here we have it, Day 16: a goat-shaped Euroslug and The Lobe of St Bartholomew, scalpel in hand and peeling-off members' skin - one piece at a time!

    image.thumb.png.286068c7284faf3879332c0c3439f1d5.pngimage.thumb.png.e5bf9e9e5a3fa3f7d576014d1da8ff2f.png  

    OUCH!?

     

    Where are you hunting for cold on that chart?Scandinavia....???

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    Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    So here we have it, Day 16: a goat-shaped Euroslug and The Lobe of St Bartholomew, scalpel in hand and peeling-off members' skin - one piece at a time!

    image.thumb.png.286068c7284faf3879332c0c3439f1d5.pngimage.thumb.png.e5bf9e9e5a3fa3f7d576014d1da8ff2f.png  

    OUCH!?

     

    At 16 days out that could be a lot worse. Cold pool to the northeast in place.

    Dig the trough a bit further south west - ridge the high further north - get rid of that monstrosity to our west and hey - it a chart full of potential ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    14 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

    Where are you hunting for cold on that chart?Scandinavia....???

    I hunted with both vigour and purpose, OP...but, alas, that was all I could come up with!?

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    Just now, Optimus Prime said:

    Impact it still very much on the table. Remember the SSW in 2013 didn't really impact things until 1-2 months later, Late Feb/March. In the same situation, we'd be feeling the effects middle Feb.

    Fair enough, but long range modelling is now out towards mid month and there is still no coherent signal for any meaningful HLB. If anything the trend is the opposite. With low pressure sitting in the north atlantic the logical response is for heights to build across SE Europe. Of course we are seeing odd runs (both opp and ens) that give hope but really its just natural variability in the output (albeit the fact there remains some variability does give a little hope). 

    Nothing can be ruled out completely long term but at present the balance of probabilities would be on a fairly benign Feb in our part of the world. Based on the starting point and plenty of years weather watching my thinking would be that the chance of deep cold during Feb is no more than 15% (but for the SSW I'd be at 10%). That doesn't preclude a few cold days here and there, but more kitten than beast ?.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
  • Location: Netherton, Black Country
    21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    So here we have it, Day 16: a goat-shaped Euroslug and The Lobe of St Bartholomew, scalpel in hand and peeling-off members' skin - one piece at a time!

    image.thumb.png.286068c7284faf3879332c0c3439f1d5.pngimage.thumb.png.e5bf9e9e5a3fa3f7d576014d1da8ff2f.png  

    OUCH!?

     

    A hunt the warmth thread is looking the form horse soon. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    52 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

     

    . I,ve had 8cms snow here close to the south coast without a high latitude block in sight, 

    That's not the point though is it? That could have easily have been me if the frontal zone was 300 miles further North and you would have had rain. Further, your local temps will be pushing 10 degrees by Tuesday.

    The point is, we will not get a more WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED cold and snowy spell without high latitude blocking.

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    51 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

    So you're throwing in the towel based on what? ...day 7 when a Scandinavian high pressure systems looks set to develop, still at low resolution. That could prove interesting. Oh and there are musings on the grapevine (twitter) from forecasters that the down welling from SSW and a favorable MJO phase bonding may well impact Europe as we head on through February.

    I'd be very cautious about cementing the idea that winter is over yet.

    Based on plenty of things, I think we can say a cold easterly / strong Scandi high looks unlikely by February 10th, we are coming up against what is likely to be a very strong North Atlantic due to things upstream as the anomaly chart showed.

    So we need a really strong Scandi high to fend it off and even then its not guaranteed to bring cold. It needs to allign correctly and by mid month the sun will be getting stronger, meaning we can get higher maximums under anticyclonic conditions, so something that may have been very cold in December may not be so much by mid-February.

    Even when things do fall into place the cold spell may not bring anything notable. February 2005 for example was poor here despite the excellent synoptics (the SE did better though I admit). I think its reasonable to say that if by the middle of the month the output remains poor then our chance of a really notable cold spell has passed.

    Yes we can get something exceptional like the beast from the east but that requires everything to fall into the right place which is rare. We heard the SSW and MJO being touted to bring cold in January and that didn't happen. That may change but any favourable factors may be overwhelmed by that huge cold pool over NE Canada fueling the North Atlantic. That is a reasonable assumption given it doesn't look like shifting.

    It may still change but its a warning that if the current output continues then the first half of February at least may need writing off. The 06z OP for example is awful and produces little of note. I was hoping yesterdays ECM 00z may appear more in the ensembles but it really isn't anywhere to be seen at the moment. Todays GFS 00z got a little close in its later stages but that is it.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    26 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    eWe heard the SSW and MJO being touted to bring cold in January and that didn't happen. 

     

    As mentioned you the MJO I thought I would have a look at the MJO and look at it... it is staying in the supposedly favourable phases of 7/8/1 for some time. Ok, not hugely amplified but not bad, but it kind of makes a mockery of any forecast based on the MJO. So we have a favourable MJO, a very strong SSW which has down whelled to the troposphere and we still cannot get any high latitude blocking.

    image.thumb.png.5e7205b50d08bafe36f99b7071a17d52.png

    Edited by mountain shadow
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    Posted
  • Location: Nottingham, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and sunny
  • Location: Nottingham, UK

    Didn't someone say this winter would be a winter of discontent? We'll we have certainly been discontented with the model output so far. This was a very good call! 

    I wouldn't like to make a call for the next 4 weeks. Looking at the latest output, it looks like a slow move back to westerlies of some form, but the way this winter has panned out, we could well see an imminent flip to something more favourable. The background signals are still currently in our favour, so we still could end up with something decent, but until the models have agreement at 5 days out for a cold spell, there is nothing to get excited about.(unless of course you like the emotional soap opera, the GFS that is aired 4 times a day. It's performance for best story line will beat anything eastenders comes up with, and no tv licence is required!)

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Anything out of the ordinary!
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    It’s safe to say prospects look as pants as they have for quite a while. That’s not me being pessimistic, but just looking at what’s in front of me. Persistent Canadian vortex ruining everything as usual.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

    That's not the point though is it? That could have easily have been me if the frontal zone was 300 miles further North and you would have had rain. Further, your local temps will be pushing 10 degrees by Tuesday.

    The point is, we will not get a more WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED cold and snowy spell without high latitude blocking.

    @ Mountain Shadow .Actually that is the point. the front was never ever going to be 300 miles further north.

    Do agree though for sustained cold/ snow some kind high level block or wedge is needed. But I always knew that the current southwest dumping would not be long lasting. Now we await the rest of February when the natural seasonal wavelength changes will actually aid high latitude blocking more than at any other time of the year. I,m with tight isobar on this one. and would not be surprised to see a worthwhile block, probably north or northeast appear in the modelling over the next three days or so.

     

    Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    33 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Bit harsh!!!! tis only weather pal

    Depends on your perspective. From here, looking at the model output, the  MJO, the other teleconnections, they've all made idiots out of all of us. For me, it's interesting how the models deal, or rather don't deal very well with the developments, hopefully these unpredicatbilities will be programmed into the model algorithms and a better understanding and forecasting platform will result. I don't think anyone is an idiot on here, I think it's just that everything should be right for a decent prolonged cold spell but we keep getting snookered.

    Edited by JeffC
    missing an e - story of my life!
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    Posted
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
  • Location: Exeter, Devon, UK. alt 10m asl
    46 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    As mentioned you the MJO I thought I would have a look at the MJO and look at it... it is staying in the supposedly favourable phases of 7/8/1 for some time. Ok, not hugely amplified but not bad, but it kind of makes a mockery of any forecast based on the MJO. So we have a favourable MJO, a very strong SSW which has down whelled to the troposphere and we still cannot get any high latitude blocking.

    image.thumb.png.5e7205b50d08bafe36f99b7071a17d52.png

    Hmmm, i'd be cautious about those MJO forecasts at the mo.

    When i checked a few days back the GFS was holding a high amplitude phase 7.

    The one you have posted is i think the ECM output based on the ones listed here http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

    The GFS is today showing a quick circuit through the COD back to phase 6/5 then back to high amplitude 7

    combphase_noCFSfull (1).gif

    Yet their discussion from a few days ago is more in keeping with the one i saw.

    Picture1.png

     

    And i have also read that tropical forcing is not having much impact on the global circulation.

    In short - a lot of variation therefore treat with caution.  May also mean some wild swings in the long range output for our neck of the woods.

    Edited by swebby
    to align charts to text
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    Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Based on plenty of things, I think we can say a cold easterly / strong Scandi high looks unlikely by February 10th, we are coming up against what is likely to be a very strong North Atlantic due to things upstream as the anomaly chart showed.

    So we need a really strong Scandi high to fend it off and even then its not guaranteed to bring cold. It needs to allign correctly and by mid month the sun will be getting stronger, meaning we can get higher maximums under anticyclonic conditions, so something that may have been very cold in December may not be so much by mid-February.

    Even when things do fall into place the cold spell may not bring anything notable. February 2005 for example was poor here despite the excellent synoptics (the SE did better though I admit). I think its reasonable to say that if by the middle of the month the output remains poor then our chance of a really notable cold spell has passed.

    Yes we can get something exceptional like the beast from the east but that requires everything to fall into the right place which is rare. We heard the SSW and MJO being touted to bring cold in January and that didn't happen. That may change but any favourable factors may be overwhelmed by that huge cold pool over NE Canada fueling the North Atlantic. That is a reasonable assumption given it doesn't look like shifting.

    It may still change but its a warning that if the current output continues then the first half of February at least may need writing off. The 06z OP for example is awful and produces little of note. I was hoping yesterdays ECM 00z may appear more in the ensembles but it really isn't anywhere to be seen at the moment. Todays GFS 00z got a little close in its later stages but that is it.

    Doesn't always have to equate severe cold. This cold spell hasn't been extreme at all but has produced fairly widespread snow from a NW'ly airstream and very low minima.

    Ultimately if the models are poor mid-month (they're not poor atm btw) then we have 22nd February > to produce a change and initiate the chase again. This rule works for every 6 or 7 days up to the last week of March. 

    Knee-jerk reactions based on hypothetical outcomes mixed with great volatility and uncertainty. I wouldn't like to be standing on either side of the fence right now. If I had to choose, would be standing on the cold side that's for sure.

    Edited by Optimus Prime
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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    1 minute ago, Optimus Prime said:

    Doesn't always have to equate severe cold. This cold spell hasn't been extreme at all but has produced fairly widespread snow from a NW'ly airstream and very low minima.

    Ultimately if the models are poor mid-month (they're not poor atm btw) then we have 22nd February > to produce a change and every 6 or 7 days up to the last week of March. 

    Knee-jerk reactions based on hypothetical outcomes mixed with great volatility and uncertainty. I wouldn't like to be standing on either side of the fence right now. If I had to choose, would be standing on the cold side that's for sure.

    But they are poor up until February 10th, just look at the ens for that date, like my swingometer did. Obviously the line chart for February 15th is more uncertain (as we may expect).

    March can still deliver further north (e.g. March 2006) but down south it becomes very difficult to sustain a prolonged cold spell which is what I chase (and I can imagine many others).

    I don't think writing off the first 10 days of February is that much of a knee jerk reaction given the output, there may still be a bit of uncertainty about the low crossing the UK next tuesday but that is it a little northern blocking.

    I'm happy to put my hands up and admit if my pessimism is misplaced but I can't see anything other then mild wet weather interspersed with the odd average day up until February 10th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
    7 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    There is no doubt that the background signals do have an affect on the atmospheric circulation but they are quite broad brush and the problem is people hear the words 'mjo phase 7/8/1 has good analogues for northern blocking' or SSW and straight away assume that the block will be in the right place with a long fetch easterly with our name on it. 

    People really need to look at a picture of the earth from space and look at the miniscule size of uk in global terms and then perhap they might understand  how hard it is to get anything to hit that target. Then look at the size of the united states/canada and one can see that the current 'polar vortex' hitting the midwest could have dropped south the best part of 1000 mile east or west of where it has and still brought deep life threatening cold to some part of the united states/canada  In our case we are so miniscule in global terms that 100 miles in any direction and we can miss out.

    We need to bear in mind as has been pointed out so many times that the default winter pattern for us is from the westerly quadrant. So an easterly is not just a small change from that pattern it is diametrically opposed to anything we should expect in winter, which is why they, like spells of  cold/and snow of more than a few days in the UK are rarer than rocking horse poo.

    The background signals do not guarantee sustained cold /snow for the UK but you can can also guarantee that NONE of our extended cold/snowy spells or severe winters would have happened without them being favourable.

    agree - more a case of managing expectations than betting the farm on one particular model verification.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge, Kent

    No idea where ICON is going with that run, shoves a low across at us then just dissolves it in situ just to our west over the course of 5 days.

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

     

    Yes an unusual winter so far.

     

    January was unusual, the very dry first half was milder than the more unsettled second half. The norm is that the anticyclonic periods in winter are colder than the Atlantic driven periods. This January about 5.2C for the first half and just 1mm whilst the second half was 2.8C and about 42mm 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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