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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Next Winter has great potential.  Solar minimum,  declining wQBO. …

Yes do you have any charts to back this up ECM T6960🤣🤣🤣

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Just now, Tog said:

I’m new to all this. What exactly is FI? I see it mentioned in posts everywhere, I can manage most terms or work them out and understand them, on a basic level but that one is a mystery! 

It’s a term used to described weather in the unreliable timeframe. 

Fantasy Island (I think)

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18 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM says NO to the BEAST ... YET !

Tidied for you. 😀

Edited by Purga
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Not a bad ecm run  the siberian high still their, needs to back west in the next few runs. 

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

At first glance but is it as clear as that?

 

wedge of heights over Scandinavia with the Siberian high backing it up

 

only think missing an undercut

34AA2D0C-1ED7-4C27-B94A-7E4C4CF3EAF3.thumb.png.bffdf80354d7acba3bde56d862b38d08.png

Love it Day 10 potential buckling my seat belt🚅🚄

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Many thanks 😁. Never thought FI meant that, I expected it to be some technical term.

 

Edited by Tog
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10 minutes ago, Tog said:

Many thanks 😁. Never thought FI meant that, I expected it to be some technical term.

 

 

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24 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Not a bad ecm run  the siberian high still their, needs to back west in the next few runs. 

What like we've been hoping all this January :oldrofl:

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2 hours ago, Stonethecrows said:

Wow. I think Sweep himself could manage better grammar and punctuation!

Edd stones wasnt much better,  but he escaped the backlash!!! 😅😉

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Not much to say really so I'll leave it to Batman & Robin!👍:whistling:

216_thickuk.png

216_mslp850.png

2rh5x2.jpg

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30 minutes ago, booferking said:

Love it Day 10 potential buckling my seat belt🚅🚄

O look more sarcasm in the model thread 

someone explain why people that have no interest in the actual models just come here to make sarcastic replies to people that wish to discuss what they see without expecting it to verify all the time.

 

the banter in this thread is mostly snide remarks 

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

O look more sarcasm in the model thread 

someone explain why people that have no interest in the actual models just come here to make sarcastic replies to people that wish to discuss what they see without expecting it to verify all the time.

 

the banter in this thread is mostly snide remarks 

I think most of it comes from frustration and disappointment.

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The less said about the ext EPS, the better.  Let's hope for better tomorrow!

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1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

I think most of it comes from frustration and disappointment.

Its not just that though is it?? The same people who constantly belittle charts at 10 days plus are usually the same ones that keep posting them! If everyone has little faith in FI charts then what is the point in posting them! They ain't ever gonna verify, so why bother, what next? A new model that can post Day 100 charts, then we can all have a good laugh about how crap summer is goona be! 

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UKMO extended getting close to a north-westerly

ukm2.2019020712_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.78f8120c1395f8ad1ca5a1d9862e176b.png

 

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9 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The less said about the ext EPS, the better.  Let's hope for better tomorrow!

Maybe there are a lot of varied solutions ?????

thats the hope I suppose 

funnily enough, I’m expecting  to see a decent greeny high anomoly week 3 on the 46 later 

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23 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

O look more sarcasm in the model thread 

the banter in this thread is mostly snide remarks 

It's not sarcasm it's good humour and it helps to have a sense of humour with an ecm run like that.

PS..for those coldies lucky enough to be getting snow tonight..you deserve it!👍😉❄️

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe there are a lot of varied solutions ?????

thats the hope I suppose 

funnily enough, I’m expecting  to see a decent greeny high anomoly week 3 on the 46 later 

So am i - hints of it at the end week 2 on the GEFS lately - don't see it verifying though.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

So am i - hints of it at the end week 2 on the GEFS lately - don't see it verifying though.

I do actually .........whether it is ens up as a west based neg NAO I don’t know 

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Actually i should moderate that last comment to - i am not over confident of it verifying.

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38 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

O look more sarcasm in the model thread 

someone explain why people that have no interest in the actual models just come here to make sarcastic replies to people that wish to discuss what they see without expecting it to verify all the time.

 

the banter in this thread is mostly snide remarks 

Most certainly not Sir you have me wrong.

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ECM 12z mean and op closer than they were on the 00z. Not difficult I suppose given how much of a cold outlier it was at t192

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.77fc1af6079a73beda7357f60a17d8c6.png

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9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM 12z mean and op closer than they were on the 00z. Not difficult I suppose given how much of a cold outlier it was at t192

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.77fc1af6079a73beda7357f60a17d8c6.png

I'm hoping march will deliver like last year..surely the background signals will have made it into the foreground by then, I will keep an eye on the sky for unusual seagull activity!!👍😉

Edited by Frosty.
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Who needs the Wednesday 10 day met office trend when we have the vastly improved netweather 7 days a week 247 10 day trend! Much better value, keep them great posts coming, things may look bleak at present, but as we saw the other week, trends can flip suddenly, this time next week the beast 2 maybe incoming 🙏😂

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So the models for the past week that have been widely discussed on this thread have suggested a snow event in the south albeit marginal at times and also caution south coast for rain/sleet. From 18:00 it has been dumping snow in the west IOW with a continued forecast for rain until the early hours! I guess this evidences the immaturity of weather predictions within the immediate time frame of a potential event?  I gain more informed forecasting from the well known frequent visitors of this forum than elsewhere 👍

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