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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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looking good - *BUT* lets move on from todays UKMO 12z!!

 

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24 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UK 120 interesting, almost no PV left in NA

Is that technically correct ?

3DCCFA36-F4B6-4402-8B6B-7B901F8D78D7.thumb.jpeg.cbab9924f79b7753a00ea2a3f3735dc1.jpeg

be v surprised if ec fi repeats itself 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Is that technically correct ?

3DCCFA36-F4B6-4402-8B6B-7B901F8D78D7.thumb.jpeg.cbab9924f79b7753a00ea2a3f3735dc1.jpeg

be v surprised if ec fi repeats itself 

What's that undated chart with no key showing?

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2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS is trying again

image.thumb.png.055f62fe2ee8e36a40598da5a41e6b5a.png
It's not like the Jet is blasting it's way across the Atlantic 

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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

What's that undated chart with no key showing?

B*gger off - it’s between me and warren 😊

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35 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UK 120 interesting, almost no PV left in NA

I'm afraid there is, what is more evident is the complete lack of proper beneficial Northerly blocking. 

image.thumb.png.e62039c3b18c3bb7a3d79db86b643076.png

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Is that technically correct ?

3DCCFA36-F4B6-4402-8B6B-7B901F8D78D7.thumb.jpeg.cbab9924f79b7753a00ea2a3f3735dc1.jpeg

be v surprised if ec fi repeats itself 

The ECM op from a smaller cluster, as was the GFS ops yesterday, but GFS seemingly moved on, at least in the medium term, with another chunk from the Canadian PV overwhelming any wedges in HL. Big chunks are good for further attempts at NE blocks, however, the breakage of the PV, as a whole, remains elusive, and if the downwelling is needed, it is to accelerate its demise.

Very little warmth heading even into mid-latitudes on the GFS out to D16, so no forcing upstream. The W Pacific Hadley cell driving a wave train of HP systems west to east, five noted on the 06z run, the type of pattern that will recycle the Canadian vortex and without a strong SSW push, we are looking at getting lucky with short cold flows.

All in all its just waiting out for a reboot to the NH profile, as the current one is rather underwhelming, relying on wedges of heights to manufacture a cold block. Looking at beyond D10 for hope now unless the background signals come to life.

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm afraid there is, what is more evident is the complete lack of proper beneficial Northerly blocking. 

image.thumb.png.e62039c3b18c3bb7a3d79db86b643076.png

gfsnh-0-120.png?12
GFS for the same time scale. 

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Is that technically correct ?

3DCCFA36-F4B6-4402-8B6B-7B901F8D78D7.thumb.jpeg.cbab9924f79b7753a00ea2a3f3735dc1.jpeg

be v surprised if ec fi repeats itself 

after a breif warm up for the next few days it looks very likely  they will be hit with round 2 of this mega cold i can only put it down to this ssw event we had with its inpact now bein felt in north america but sadly europe missed the boat this time round thats the way it goes sometimes just pot luck maybe we will get a small dose next time round 

Edited by igloo

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I did say almost no PV. Compare to GFS and you can see that it is completely different. Anyway GFS hits lower resolution and the conveyor belt starts.

Edited by warrenb

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A few posts have been hidden.Let's keep the chat about the model charts please chaps,ta.

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

B*gger off - it’s between me and warren 😊

I suppose the majority of the lobe is western based but it still shows a lobe yes

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The most used word of 2019 ladies and gentlemen goes to DOWNWELLING.🤣

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

The most used word of 2019 ladies and gentlemen goes to DOWNWELLING.🤣

I disagree, potential is the winner by, potentially a long way.

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20 minutes ago, igloo said:

after a breif warm up for the next few days it looks very likely  they will be hit with round 2 of this mega cold i can only put it down to this ssw event we had with its inpact now bein felt in north america but sadly europe missed the boat this time round thats the way it goes sometimes just pot luck maybe we will get a small dose next time round 

Europe didn't miss the boat though really. The UK did. Much of Eastern Europe has experienced exceptional snow even for them. 

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Looks familiar 🤔 This week proves you don’t need significant northern blocking at this time of year for snow events 

95F4BE01-2FFA-4301-BE28-28E8623A5D52.png

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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks familiar 🤔 This week proves you don’t need significant northern blocking at this time of year for snow events 

95F4BE01-2FFA-4301-BE28-28E8623A5D52.png

I don't know about you though but I was expecting a little more than a brief flurry of snow this Winter. 

Without proper blocking any snow events are short lived.

If the ECM ditches it 'potential ' and favourable 'downwelling' from the 0z op. we can right off the first two weeks of February. 

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5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I don't know about you though but I was expecting a little more than a brief flurry of snow this Winter. 

Without proper blocking any snow events are short lived.

If the ECM ditches it 'potential ' and favourable 'downwelling' from the 0z op. we can right off the first two weeks of February. 

I’m sure thiose in Devon, Cornwall and South Wales would be happy with a repeat of today! I love snow, not great Synoptics so I’ll take it wherever / however it forms. 2 snow events so far here and another this evening / tomorrow morning. It’s been a Winter wonderland in this part of the world last few days. Drove from the snow cover of Herts through thick freezing fog which coated everything up to Kings Lynn. Up on the Norfolk coast it was light snow from the fog lifting which gave a covering. 

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As far as potential goes, this must the best year ever, and we've now even got potential downwelling - a double whammy if ever there as one!🤔😄

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Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

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3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

OK

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3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

Wow. I think Sweep himself could manage better grammar and punctuation!

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5 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

Please provide proof to back this up!!

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7 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

Meanwhile snow is falling over a large part of the country and I have -5 over the snowfields!

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