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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe something a bit more typical for a UK winter next week with an alternating pattern between some cooler and milder days

12z ECM

ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.03d2377719fe9375c85a84596f5c42c4.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.e0fdb43344801a7e0f77ec6cd15530f6.png

ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.33eadf3bb8e116db30d73b7c099579fa.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.07bc90141bd6442db2097407e7f64507.png

ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.da910f1fab27387401478d545cd4499b.png

Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter. 

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What does the atmosphere have to do  to  the Canadian lobe to get it to pish off

anim_rvc4.gif

Edited by winterof79

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7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What does the atmosphere have to do  to  the Canadian lobe to get it to pish off

anim_rvc4.gif

Yep - disappointing 12z ECM.  Let’s see where it sits within the ensemble suite.

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yep - disappointing 12z ECM.  Let’s see where it sits within the ensemble suite.

Can the Scandi ridge repel the attack.

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An unsettled picture from UKMO extended with plenty of precipitation about

ukm2.2019020612_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4d3e30aacccf264d2582c6d01e36d05e.png

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    9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:  Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter.   you no when things look grim when we expect the siberian hp to somehow march 2000 miles west we get this discussion every year on this topic  and every year it delivers nothing

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32 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Tbf-the ssw has been a little of a delayed deport..(in part)..

But i'll stake..the ramifications 4 our part will soon be felt..

Its a wait n, win m8..trust me..😉

 

More later 

I hope your right mate because I for one can’t handle another fail lol

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17 minutes ago, igloo said:

    9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:  Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter.   you no when things look grim when we expect the siberian hp to somehow march 2000 miles west we get this discussion every year on this topic  and every year it delivers nothing

You mean one run showed a link up and now you think that’s the only way of pressure rising to our north east

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A pretty blocked looking ECM mean, especially from the NH perspective.

image.thumb.png.9149204d59f2e1e205fb11a7d81c9bca.png

Plenty of interest still, I would wager 😉

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5 minutes ago, Purga said:

A pretty blocked looking ECM mean, especially from the NH perspective.

image.thumb.png.9149204d59f2e1e205fb11a7d81c9bca.png

Plenty of interest still, I would wager 😉

Ext EPS also pretty interesting.  The mean doesn’t quite give the perfect configuration for us but Greenland heights evident again.  Clusters will be worth viewing.

Edited by mulzy

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Is this polar vortex going to become more common and could we see more larger ones.  Day After Tomorrow comes to mind

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24 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

Is this polar vortex going to become more common and could we see more larger ones.  Day After Tomorrow comes to mind

Worse.....much worse.....the day after yesterday...

 

BFTP 

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Well after a much snaw starved period for the east coast of Scotland it is excellent to see a surprise trough pointing right at us on the fax. Hopefully the flow is stong enough to push some hefty showers inland and give us the snaw we crave. Its a bad show when London has had more than Perth. 

20190130.webp

Edited by edo

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If we get blocking in and around the uk, watch for a developing Iberian trough moving northeast against it in the 10/12 day period 

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25 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

What amazes me with this thread, is when somebody posts a comment promising perfect conditions, then they receive loads of 'likes'. In reality though, very little wintry weather has actually occured and yet the promises continue. 

Seriously, some people read these threads both to learn from more knowledgable members and to also read realistic comments.

Yeh fair point but when some of our my knowledgeable posters spend their time saying what they think, based on their assessment, if it reads logically, I’m happy to give it a like, 

doesnt mean I think it will come true but it’s a kind of thanks for their input.

of course saying it will snow 12 feet in Carlisle guarantees results, so come on Carlisle, like this post...

 

In all seriousness the South of England looks great tomorrow, so I hope those below this M4 boundary enjoy what is coming

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8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

Some juicy showers making inroads on the north eastern coast there too so something for northern areas perhaps?

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1 minute ago, P-M said:

Some juicy showers making inroads on the north eastern coast there too so something for northern areas perhaps?

They have marked the Northen extent of the low, but of course during the day tomorrow it may still change!

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3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

ECM continues the trend to something a bit less cold as we go through next week. It'll probably be mid week before the milder air gets to all parts

ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.90b96a5a86961e9077fc9100c12d4e7e.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.59f9d470cc09c4618875c63e6e239b58.png

 

If at all. But yes, sadly for the cold hunters who seem to have had to hunt proper cold all winter long, next week will likely see a return to westerlies and some rain around, complete with near to average temperatures. Ho hum but at least travel disruption will be much less of an issue.

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33 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

What about no flakes?....asking for a friend 

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37 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

Your black line goes through my house, I am asking to push it north please.

Thank you.

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3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

What about no flakes?....asking for a friend 

This is where the BBC have the snow by tomorrow night Tim . Still think we’re get a good covering again . 

1CA8F5D1-56AF-4555-B79F-EB33638CCA2B.png

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