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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

The TPV will never get into that position across the  US in strat VI conditions. Amy Butler tweeted recently about the link to the strat warming , One event triggers another, so the wave train is all linked from ENSO state to strat

Thanks, yes all interlinked, just hard for me to get to grips with how it all works.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

graphe3_1000_249_31___.gif

Possibility of uppers staying below 0 beyond the weekend but no real cold spell is on the horizon with the exception of the ocisional Ensemble and operational. more support will be needed.

still with the Jet still heading NW/SE more cold outbreaks like this week can be expected. 

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Can see a few more chops and changes over the next 24  hrs regarding Thursdays snow, perhaps central, Eastern Wales in the line of 10-20cms, maybe nudging west and south west midlands, and thoughs of you in the southwest worrying a little bit, maybe another little troff moving into your area on Friday, one to watch for sure. And hopefully most of us can get on to some of the action ?

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1 hour ago, Woollymummy said:

It definitely won't snow that day, I can guarantee that.

  

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

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Probably in the minority but I've appreciated the short term updates by a few posters in here. Best chance of seeing the first snow of the winter for some.

If we get the beast at T24, do we continue hunting for cold in the longer term? Seems odd.

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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Can see a few more chops and changes over the next 24  hrs regarding Thursdays snow, perhaps central, Eastern Wales in the line of 10-20cms, maybe nudging west and south west midlands, and thoughs of you in the southwest worrying a little bit, maybe another little troff moving into your area on Friday, one to watch for sure. And hopefully most of us can get on to some of the action ?

I love how you leave out southern counties and S/E and parts of E/A also ..

Seems wales and parts of the midlands could see a nice dumping :)

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A clear 'outlier'..

6z @beast..

But for me a twitch in the  correct-around-about direct..

And watch for similar (although perhaps slightly weaker) signals as we gain and unfold.

 

MT8_London_ens (20).png

Edited by tight isobar
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2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I love how you leave out southern counties and S/E and parts of E/A also ..

Seems wales and parts of the midlands could see a nice dumping ?

Yeh them to UW, just noticed how the system seems to be grinding to a halt around the areas I mentioned, little features bound to crop up in next 48 hrs, so hopefully we all end up with a bit of fun ?

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17 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe3_1000_249_31___.gif

Possibility of uppers staying below 0 beyond the weekend but no real cold spell is on the horizon with the exception of the ocisional Ensemble and operational. more support will be needed.

still with the Jet still heading NW/SE more cold outbreaks like this week can be expected. 

Agree with this. Beyond that,  I just feel some are looking far too hard for something that isn't realistically there. 

Meanwhile the PV ravages North America. Like the ol' sayin' goes; we were just livin' on the wrong side of the tracks...

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36 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Outlier

Trend setter ?. The ens will follow , you heard it here first . I have faith in @TEITS thinking ??

@bluearmy we got quite a nice covering of snow from last nights system. Keep your hope casting up ?

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29 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

31st Feb? That’s my birthday!!!

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32 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

Your  clearly even more crackers than me -me old pal...???

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32 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

Thats a long long winter then. Is that like a double leap year?! 

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winter is technically 1st December to 31stFebruary

 

Well I guarantee you it won't snow for the last 3 days of Winter then this year

Edited by winterof79
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43 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

Post of the day deep snow, you hear that netweather folk, cancel summer this year, the hunt for cold continues till June at the earliest, love it. ?

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Now that's what I call a leap year!!!

A triple-jump year?

Anywho, I've been wondering no-one has posted much from the greatest trend-setter of them all, the FV3...I looked, I saw, and now I know!?

image.thumb.png.976c6d3790430636a32869db45be1b60.pngimage.thumb.png.1fb39ffbc8c0bb7619a1c7a8bf001a85.png    

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9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Post of the day deep snow, you hear that netweather folk, cancel summer this year, the hunt for cold continues till June at the earliest, love it. ?

And theres no immediate panic...coz- it all kicks off on 31st feb !!!

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Not sure if its been raised-

06z ECM another jump south

So much so Wales nearly missing out ( south wales v.good ) - big Depths for Devon & West Somerset !

 

Edited by Steve Murr
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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not sure if its been raised-

06z ECM another jump south

So much so Wales nearly missing out ( south wales v.good ) - big Depths for Devon & West Somerset !

 

Yes, it's gone South again, and looks good for high ground & Wales.

South Coast looks OK, SE Looks marginal at best. Band looks weak & fragmented. 

South Wales, Bristol, and South of the Midlands look favourable. 

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

Where are you seeing the 06 ECM? I saw somebody quoting the 18z ECM too and questioned that.

Paywall site -

SE lighter depths 1-5Cm ( not marginal - continental dewpoints )

The S/SE will really need a wave along tr front to pep it up...

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1 hour ago, Deep Snow please said:

Probably not but you miss the point. Whilst winter is technically 1st December to 31st February there is far more of the year in which there is potential for it to snow. Snow has been recorded at relatively low levels in June in the UK (2 June 1975) and, so giving it until April before giving up is only common sense if the output shows nothing wintry; if the output shows potential unseasonable weather it could be as late as June or July when I stop looking for cold. People writing winter off in January bemuses me.

June / July, usually down the beach by early May down here.....horrific thoughts snow that late in the year.....

Edited by Alderc
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