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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The GFS tics another shift of around 50 miles south on Thurs Eve, so with each passing run the stall out point looks like being just East of London- ATM its Norfolk but theres more gas in the tanks im afraid... note the change highlighted in the 850s position on Friday 1pm

18z first

D947AC0A-4228-4E7B-9416-D0AABDBF411E.thumb.png.e84b3c97275fac3dc05570cfcf3da00b.png26D90CA0-0CDA-4552-A62D-FA665BF05AAA.thumb.png.323d0ad174640b64f0c15bd7282bf940.png

 FWIW I havent posted in here much for a few days- however the day 6/ day 7 atlantic profiles look to flat to me

Expext upgrades for day 5/6 & 7 over the next 24-48 hours for a better Atlantic high & diving jet

The south west moors are coming in to play more and more at this rate

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GFS is going to have a go at an E'ly down the line here

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UKMO also very interesting at 144

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That Atlantic troughing will be pincered from both sides- pressure rises over Greenland between days 5 and 6

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6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp furtherst south yet. Going to be a south coast event at this rate ! 

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I know this often gets asked half-jokingly but in all seriousness, given how often we see events like this correct southwards where snow is concerned, do they not re-programme the models to take account of such an evident northward starting bias? It seems like it would improve accuracy to do so? 

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17 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

I know this often gets asked half-jokingly but in all seriousness, given how often we see events like this correct southwards where snow is concerned, do they not re-programme the models to take account of such an evident northward starting bias? It seems like it would improve accuracy to do so? 

Even if you added bias correction into the mix, it'd still edge S on subsequent runs. The models correct as new initialising data is fed into them.

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Blimey, quiet this morning...not too much on offer mid to long term...ukmo, illustrates the latest frustration for the UK as potentially our last chance of a potent easterly mid month, the arctic high , as mentioned yesterday is stopped in it's tracks and tilted unfavourable by the low pressure system hitting our shores tomorrow...as it happens I'm off to Finland next week, wonder if I can get a good dollop of snow from the same system 4 days apart! ?

 

UKMOPEU00_144_1-9.png

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Obv there is a lot of focus for thur but look at UKMO 144, does that look loaded with potential ?

image.thumb.png.637b761a4a8a63775c6d1c2bb9f9e802.png

It looks pretty good to me NW.only problem I have is were nearly in Feb and haven't moved on from early December!!!

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52 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Obv there is a lot of focus for thur but look at UKMO 144, does that look loaded with potential ?

image.thumb.png.637b761a4a8a63775c6d1c2bb9f9e802.png

Same general direction of travel as ecm I reckon. Europe poised to be flooded with cold from the East.

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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Even if you added bias correction into the mix, it'd still edge S on subsequent runs. The models correct as new initialising data is fed into them.

That shows why the Human element is essential in forecasting still. Steve M, myself and a few others have been saying these systems correct south 8/10 times and sure enough, that has happened.

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Shortwave drama !

Around day 5 is where that begins . That needs to go se not ne and eject cleanly that will allow some ridging to back west over the top and hold up the upstream troughing from advancing too far east.

The ECM op once again  from the 4th February becomes the mildest solution for several days.

The ensembles aren’t bullish upto day ten about backing deeper cold west but the earlier timeframe is important because it helps to set up a more favourable start point to get that after that point .

 

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14 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

Well my goaty friend, the reason is in the thread title. For the here and now people tend to use the regional threads, for the 'cold hunt' further afield they use this one. Don't let it wind you up, not worth the stress. Just enjoy the madness of the forum.

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11 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

He's talking about real potential, the type of potential that those who cannot be named are still indicating longer term..not the 2cm on low ground potential this week!??..ps..not everyone has 3 inches to play with!:shok:

ooh-matron-kenneth-williams-carry-on-bouvier-des-flandres-puppies-for-sale-uk.jpg

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15 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Oh look. Mountain Shadow with the usual morning WUM. (Wind Up Merchant). I'm not sure you understand and why you are looking in the future for 'Potential', we have 3" of snow here right now, and it's still snowing. We have Thursday where it WILL snow in places. Its cold all week, beyond that, nobody knows, not you, not the models, not tinybill, why people are so fixated on what happens in 10 days time is beyond me. 

 

Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end. 

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39 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I like the direction of travel between 216 and 240 on the eps mean.

Heads the way of the gefs in the extended .....getting there but pulling teeth on the way ! 

hopefully it will accelerate 

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