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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

People in the east do much better for snow in easterlies but meanwhile us in the west are left with nothing. A NW flow (polar maritime i think) often gives us westerners a turn for some beefy snow showers.

I don't disagree the extremities of the UK will always miss out depending on where the ppn is coming from

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ECH1-216 (3).gifecm also taking resonpces on board..

and has ..latter or otherwise..aligned 2 the gfs model.

With just a slight variation on the theme.

Canadian lobe miss firing..

And a set cast TRI-PV..

again decent ..if cold is your apply.

Edited by tight isobar
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Interesting. If drivers are nothing other than noise, then what in your opinion drives the weather? And if you see nothing but noise, then what is your interest on this forum? There are a few in here who have differing views on the relative significance of specific factors, but all share a common desire to try and make sense of the patterns we get via interpretation of drivers. Where do you sit?

My point is, what does the term 'background signals' actually mean? We might as well say 'dark arts' which due to our general lack of understanding of the complexities of the atmosphere, is more apt. How can you say that? I hear you ask; well, the fact that we have been hearing about these signals since November, and despite a well above average December, a benign, largely HP dominated January, with the majority of the UK still not having seen a flake of snow, the Scottish ski resorts desperate for a decent fall, you have to ask the uncomfortable question, what does the term actually mean? 

It's all well and good some now wanting to rewrite the many many volumous pages on this forum of the last 8 weeks and start to talk about a backloaded winter instead - just for fun or otherwise, but sometimes, to suit their bias, people can just try too hard to will something that wasn't really there in the first place.

None of us are sure what February will bring, but remember, it's only the weather after all.

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It’s so frustrating we just can’t get a block to stick . Just toppling at day 10 to much energy in the NW . 

F590FA6B-305D-44F4-8124-7724E34A6982.png

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Well boring it aint  very good ECM  cold north westerlies  and chance of  a elusive snow flake  seen worse runs 

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That LOOKS like a cold and snowy run nationwide on the ecm!!!only milder day is at 120 hours even then at the surface it will.probably be cold before even colder air and snow sweep south at 144 hours!!

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Please let us do the moderating. We don’t need discussion on what should or shouldn’t be in the thread. Thank you

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4 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I keep reading since December we missed the first bite of the Cherry🍒, I'm sure we've missed about 10 bites of that cherry🍒.. I'm surprised theres any of that cherry left.. 🍒🍒🙈

Maybe THAT cherry will come to bite us next😁

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Just now, weirpig said:

Well boring it aint  very good ECM  cold north westerlies  and chance of  a elusive snow flake  seen worse runs 

Yes it is a great run if your in Scotland or High Ground. We aren't all living in the Scottish mountains. Anywhere else if just gonna get transient sleet off a pm shot

 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s so frustrating we just can’t get a block to stick . Just toppling at day 10 to much energy in the NW . 

F590FA6B-305D-44F4-8124-7724E34A6982.png

Thats an amazing chart..!!!??,

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

ECH1-216 (3).gif

have you lost your decipherous tongue TI😜

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s so frustrating we just can’t get a block to stick . Just toppling at day 10 to much energy in the NW . 

F590FA6B-305D-44F4-8124-7724E34A6982.png

That’s what the charts where showing before the failed easterly showed up no reason why we won’t get another go after 10-14 days but in the mean time plenty of weather with lots of interest to get through 

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3 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

My point is, what does the term 'background signals' actually mean? We might as well say 'dark arts' which due to our general lack of understanding of the complexities of the atmosphere, is more apt. How can you say that? I hear you ask; well, the fact that we have been hearing about these signals since November, and despite a well above average December, a benign, largely HP dominated January, with the majority of the UK still not having seen a flake of snow, the Scottish ski resorts desperate for a decent fall, you have to ask the uncomfortable question, what does the term actually mean? 

It's all well and good some now wanting to rewrite the many many volumous pages on this forum of the last 8 weeks and start to talk about a backloaded winter instead - just for fun or otherwise, but sometimes, to suit their bias, people can just try too hard to will something that wasn't really there in the first place.

None of us are sure what February will bring, but remember, it's only the weather after all.

A back loaded winter was always talked about not just to suit any bias - if you looked at GP's seasonal model winter forecast ( 6 to 7 weeks ago) many models went for J F M with blocking and a stronger signal in mid way through that period , its always been there , its not just made up , clearly this was linked ( rightly or wrongly ) to any SSW that may occur .

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At this stage my opinion is the strat warming is a bust as regards influencing the next few weeks. For me it happened quickly when Austria and Germany got so much snow last week.

Will February deliver? Quite possible that we'll get a wintry 4 to 5 days. It would be extraordinary poor Winter if we got nothing. My location here we got 1 nights frost so far and the grass hasn't stopped growing lol

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21 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

 

Good EC at day ten .yep it's in fi I know😙

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Well boring it aint  very good ECM  cold north westerlies  and chance of  a elusive snow flake  seen worse runs 

Your in a good location nearly 700 ft up, no wonder its good to you 😂.

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Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend. 🤢

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3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes it is a great run if your in Scotland or High Ground. We aren't all living in the Scottish mountains. Anywhere else if just gonna get transient sleet off a pm shot

 

That run will bring snow to more locations than you suggest 

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The briefest of slightly `midler` blips Fri/Sat and back to -6/-8 uppers on Sunday. Can`t grumble at this EC run.

 

ECH0-168.png

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Just now, terrier said:

Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend. 🤢

yes the models show LESS  cold weather for weekend then much colder again.

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1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend. 🤢

Which is what the 12z charts show, its no surprise 

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13 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Decent ECM with a snow storm at day 9 

A6679A62-11B1-41B6-A5F1-145C83519453.gif

0D1B013D-7767-4288-92CD-D81011332937.gif

3C8A5106-81CA-4897-9C58-2251026134DF.gif

still 00Z, 12Z to me looks pants, gonna get squashed isn't it?

ECM1-240.GIF?20-0

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1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Thats an amazing chart..!!!??,

It is a good chart mate but it’s toppling , I’m looking for it to stay further NW and holding . There still to much energy to the NW sinking the high . Maybe I’m just a little frustrated with all the fails so far this winter . 🙁

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