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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z UKMO barely gets the frontal system on Thursday into the Midlands, and when it does its already weakening fairly quickly as this point. Main heavy precipitation reserved for southern counties. I think though the UKMO is probably underdoing the northward motion of the front now, in much the same way as ICON did last night.

Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Any chance the cold air will advect westwards, in time for the August bank holiday, Nick??

Well I think twelve inch in June would be a punt!!!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly all the seasonal models have been a bust- there is absolutely no doubting that-

Canadian PV has destroyed any hope of northern blocking winter 2018/2019, Feb may deliver but its looking unlikely IMHO, FWIW i hope my net weather friends in the midlands/wales and the SE get some good action thurs..

Its not a moan BTW, its just the reality, iv'e kind of given up hope if i'm honest- yet again a north westerly provides about an inch of slush at 200 m in the north west..as useful as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine ..

I do long for an easterly!

 

Yes I echo that; I’m longing for true cold. In my opinion, and I’ve been banging on about this for the past month is that piece of vortex being where it is, whilst it’s there you can kiss goodbye to proper blocking, we must see this weakening in the reliable timeframe as put simply all winter that wretched lobe of death (yes I said it) has scuppered our chances, along with its demonic minion the Azores heights it’s a match made in HELL.

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6 hours ago, TEITS said:

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Hi teits are you still convinced we could possible develop an easterly flow +144 to + 168 I’m not giving up on any hope just yet..?

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37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Hasn’t seen that feb .... suspect the latest 46 clusters are less than enthusiastic about a reversal affecting nw Europe favourably for us and they have adjusted their wording accordingly 

if glosea has backed off a bit then expect that wording to change again ove reached the course of the week - the further outlook was still mentioning the small chance of an easterly by the end of week 2. I wonder if they have simply decided that being out on a limb re very cold isn’t a good place to be 

anyway, models seem keen to extend the cold into next week with the mild (less cold) pushed back for the time being 

If thee 30 dayer had stayed the same, even forgetting about strat / teleconnections etc, i would be now looking at some of these GEFS suites thinking we really could be in business particularly as we don't really need mega background signals in the second half of feb, there is at least the chance to have a scandi high far enough west and robust enough to have 'proper' battleground setups rather than these half baked sliders and even genuine frigid air at a push, but there doesn't seem much appetite from the eps, 

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Pants comes to mind. If that verified the warnings would be deleted nearly.

Edited by winterof79
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Building blocks are in place, chaps and chappesses.. Ignore the 850 temp ensembles.. Cold blasts of old had warmer upper air preceding blocks to our NE. I've seen enough over the last 12 hours to be very optimistic about.. 

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

It wouldn’t be great up north but it looks quite good down south. ?

To be fair in certain places yes,but what was on offer for most of Central Southern England has gone.

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

To be fair in certain places yes,but what was on offer for most of Central Southern England has gone.

Precipitation arrived to early in the day for the Southwest, temp dropping now but main bad passed through...all eyes to Thursday's event for the Southwest.. ? Could we get a classic channel low bumping into all that cold air... ?

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