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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

12z UKMO barely gets the frontal system on Thursday into the Midlands, and when it does its already weakening fairly quickly as this point. Main heavy precipitation reserved for southern counties. I think though the UKMO is probably underdoing the northward motion of the front now, in much the same way as ICON did last night.

Jeez , are you on shakys ignore list? Dont let him see that post ..:-)

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Any chance the cold air will advect westwards, in time for the August bank holiday, Nick?🤔

Well I think twelve inch in June would be a punt!!!

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Just now, kold weather said:

12z UKMO barely gets the frontal system on Thursday into the Midlands, and when it does its already weakening fairly quickly as this point. Main heavy precipitation reserved for southern counties.

Just a quick question. Do you and Shaky have a couple of ex wives further north than the Midlands??

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Clearly all the seasonal models have been a bust- there is absolutely no doubting that-

Canadian PV has destroyed any hope of northern blocking winter 2018/2019, Feb may deliver but its looking unlikely IMHO, FWIW i hope my net weather friends in the midlands/wales and the SE get some good action thurs..

Its not a moan BTW, its just the reality, iv'e kind of given up hope if i'm honest- yet again a north westerly provides about an inch of slush at 200 m in the north west..as useful as a barbers shop on the steps of the guillotine ..

I do long for an easterly!

 

Yes I echo that; I’m longing for true cold. In my opinion, and I’ve been banging on about this for the past month is that piece of vortex being where it is, whilst it’s there you can kiss goodbye to proper blocking, we must see this weakening in the reliable timeframe as put simply all winter that wretched lobe of death (yes I said it) has scuppered our chances, along with its demonic minion the Azores heights it’s a match made in HELL.

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Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Edited by Summer Sun
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6 hours ago, TEITS said:

Plenty more drama mate. I know some may call it hopecasting but I remain convinced we could see a sudden shift from a mild, flat, zonal outlook to a cold/Very cold E,ly. All of which developing at +144 to +168 and not +300plus. I spotted this a couple of days ago and believe it remains possible.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

Hi teits are you still convinced we could possible develop an easterly flow +144 to + 168 I’m not giving up on any hope just yet..🙂

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37 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Hasn’t seen that feb .... suspect the latest 46 clusters are less than enthusiastic about a reversal affecting nw Europe favourably for us and they have adjusted their wording accordingly 

if glosea has backed off a bit then expect that wording to change again ove reached the course of the week - the further outlook was still mentioning the small chance of an easterly by the end of week 2. I wonder if they have simply decided that being out on a limb re very cold isn’t a good place to be 

anyway, models seem keen to extend the cold into next week with the mild (less cold) pushed back for the time being 

If thee 30 dayer had stayed the same, even forgetting about strat / teleconnections etc, i would be now looking at some of these GEFS suites thinking we really could be in business particularly as we don't really need mega background signals in the second half of feb, there is at least the chance to have a scandi high far enough west and robust enough to have 'proper' battleground setups rather than these half baked sliders and even genuine frigid air at a push, but there doesn't seem much appetite from the eps, 

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Here's the precipitation from 12z UKMO

6am Thursday to 12:00 Saturday

ezgif.com-gif-maker.thumb.gif.919ce8eedde494ce5b83af8ca1c17ef5.gif

Pants comes to mind. If that verified the warnings would be deleted nearly.

Edited by winterof79
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Do I see height rises over scandy! And a march westwards of that Eastern cold! Anything is possible, perhaps even a link up of the azores high into Greenland 

gem-0-240.png

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FWIW, in the more medium term here is a day 12 GEFS 500 Mb Heights anomaly chart.

gensnh-21-5-288.png

 

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Is there a little low forming just off the Hebrides? Looks like circulation on the radar...? 

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6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pants comes to mind.

Winter wonderland comes to my mind! 

 

Edited by Leon1
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Building blocks are in place, chaps and chappesses.. Ignore the 850 temp ensembles.. Cold blasts of old had warmer upper air preceding blocks to our NE. I've seen enough over the last 12 hours to be very optimistic about.. 

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GEFS shows a mean SE flow at 336, albeit without overwhelming support for robust Northern blocking.

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4 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pants comes to mind. If that verified the warnings would be deleted nearly.

It wouldn’t be great up north but it looks quite good down south. 😁

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The Para is looking quite interesting. Anyone for a bit of trough disruption

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

It wouldn’t be great up north but it looks quite good down south. 😁

To be fair in certain places yes,but what was on offer for most of Central Southern England has gone.

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5 minutes ago, Selliso said:

Is there a little low forming just off the Hebrides? Looks like circulation on the radar...? 

Definitely a circulation there over 4hrs

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7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Pants comes to mind. If that verified the warnings would be deleted nearly.

Don't think so considering that would still cause disruption for Wales, SE England, SW England and some of the Midlands?

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gfsnh-0-204.png?12

Hmmm. Looking a bit easterly I must say.

 

Edited by Snowman.
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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

To be fair in certain places yes,but what was on offer for most of Central Southern England has gone.

Precipitation arrived to early in the day for the Southwest, temp dropping now but main bad passed through...all eyes to Thursday's event for the Southwest.. 🤞 Could we get a classic channel low bumping into all that cold air... ?

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3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The Para is looking quite interesting. Anyone for a bit of trough disruption

Great chart looks spot on

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