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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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And now gfs takes the band further south and now lies across the midlands at 66 hours!!

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Interesting as the cat is thrown amongst the flying rats

anim_qbv1.gif

Edited by winterof79
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1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

  so where do we go from here now the background signals didn’t work out as many hoped it would what do you think of the ECMWF 46 outlook from today 

These background signals were barely mentioned 20 or so years ago, Yeh perhaps they was less understood, but many a great cold snap back in the day wasnt always a result of ssw and other background signals, sometimes things just settle into place like the perfect roll of dice, and even takes many by surprise!! 87 springs to mind 

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

And now gfs takes the band further south and now lies across the midlands at 66 hours!!

Looks further north covering west yorkshire and Greater Manchester unless you were not good at Geography....let it run

gfs-2-66.png

Edited by winterof79

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28 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Did a quick mockup of possible solutions re: Thursdays system

NEW.thumb.png.dfe7f8b823f322d5e6041214a7ae818c.png

Based on a blend of all models including the GFS ensembles. UKMO/ECM/ blend suggests a more central risk (scenario 1) whilst ICON/ARPEGE suggests a more Southerly central risk (scenario 2) which leaves GFS + GEFS further North as per scenario 3, though we know how the GFS likes to massively over-do Northerly extent.

Thanks Daniel, GFS looks like a mix of Option 1 & 3. It's certainly consistent with placing the snow further North.

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

And now gfs takes the band further south and now lies across the midlands at 66 hours!!

GFS is not further South compared to its 6z run, it's consistent in being further North than the ECM and UKM

Edited by mountain shadow
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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks further north covering west yorkshire and Greater Manchester unless you were not good at Geography....let it run

gfs-2-66.png

Nope compare that chart to the 72 hour chart from 06z and there a slight shift south together with the snowline!!u need to start comparing charts buddy first from the 78 hours this morning then the 72 from 06z then now to the 66 on 12z then maybe you will understand!!lol

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8 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks further north covering west yorkshire and Greater Manchester unless you were not good at Geography....let it run

gfs-2-66.png

Here you go mate 78 hours chart from the morning...

Screenshot_20190129-160426.png

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Nope compare that chart to the 72 hour chart from 06z and there a slight shift south together with the snowline!!u need to start comparing charts buddy first from the 78 hours this morning then the 72 from 06z then now to the 66 on 12z then maybe you will understand!!lol

You said the band lies accross the Midlands as if that was northern extent...that is wrong.I am well versed in chart reading.

It covers a vast area

Still good for many?

Edited by winterof79
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9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Looks further north covering west yorkshire and Greater Manchester unless you were not good at Geography....let it run

gfs-2-66.png

Definitely a correction  north on the 12z so far. Like the look of that pivot on Saturday.

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I think it's only a matter of time before one of the operationals gives us a beast from the east - that Siberian high gets stronger and better aligned each day in the day 6 range.

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

You said the band lies accross the Midlands as if that was northern extent...that is wrong.I am well versed in chart reading.

It covers a vast area

Well ive just edited the post and you will understand what im talking about!!take a look again!!its moved further south and the southern extent of the snow aswell compares to the 00z run!!

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Anyone noticed some trends from the ukmo and now gfs (not sure if that will handle the split flow well) ?

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Just now, bluearmy said:

Anyone noticed some trends from the ukmo and now gfs (not sure if that will handle the split flow well) ?

Is it similar thinking to my post just now?

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Well ive just edited the post and you will understand what im talking about!!take a look again!!its moved further south and the southern extent of the snow aswell compares to the 00z run!!

Ok Shakes we'll move on pal.?

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Anyone noticed some trends from the ukmo and now gfs (not sure if that will handle the split flow well) ?

Yes - noticed the ridge being thrown up further West, more neutrally tilted rather than positively tilted like it was a few days ago but unfortunately i have also noticed the worst trend of all, the 30 dayer much more muted about proper cold (GLOSEA based?)

image.png

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Just now, winterof79 said:

Ok Shakes we'll move on pal.?

Is this the most talked about low in net weather history?its bordering on ocd!!!!??

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So at 144 UKM has low pressure over us and GFS has High pressure over us

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Surprised there hasn’t been any comment about the UKMO as that looks a lot further south for Thursday 

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3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

So at 144 UKM has low pressure over us and GFS has High pressure over us

Considering it’s t144 they are similar 

7F1F2B09-F629-432F-AA25-A1E10F8924C4.png

987674E1-2730-4D62-BD5D-D3F3FB2B5785.png

Edited by That ECM

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People really need to stop using the ultra low res GFS PPN charts, they show the PPN far more North than the high resolution charts do..

FYI cropping into the UK from a low res chart doesn't make it hi-res..

Edited by Daniel Smith
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At t48 UKM and GFS have the centre of the low in the same position, but UKM extends it further East, almost with a secondary low nr SW England. 
Could be interesting... subtle differences even at short range 

UKM:
UW48-21.GIF?29-17

GFS:
gfs-0-48.png?12

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The 12 z Gem has now also back down from its previous position and is elongating the low pressure as it moves towards the south west of England. Gfs operational nearly completely on its own now with how it involves the low I suspect it's going to have to fall in line pretty soon. Indeed hints from the 12 z that the gfs is starting to show signs of elongating the low pressure but they're only just signs.

Edited by kold weather
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Stuck between a rock and a hard place? Monster Siberian high and monster Atlantic low...

8323CC16-ADCD-4AD9-BAB8-9B8BC4050DC8.png

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