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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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I wouldn't rule out a double SSW season (very rare) - i know the QBO has returned W'ly, but the vortex is not going to strengthen to the usual December / Nov levels, its likely to be weak even for a late season vortex, with AAM increasing, an active MJO and further Mountain torque events likely...........................    Freezing cold spring anyone?

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

The pv is just gonna be built back up  in 24 hours . It can take weeks . Not worry about that yet . I’m sure there meto oulook is based around this . 

Agreed. Hopefully we will have some change in the charts soon. 

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well this ECM run is a thriller isn’t 😌The high pressure in the atlantic going nowhere it seems 

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How did it come to this, 3 days ago beast from the east and now bog standard winter fair, back to chasing Fl surely we can't keep getting this unlucky 

Screenshot_20190120-183703.png

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I think those nesh men over there are going to need one of these🤣

gfsnh-0-138.thumb.png.1aed0be1da2b709dbf0d6f173f9f9278.pngindex.jpg.55602d68431762f25327e886d45f8e15.jpg

...and on a more serious note,ok we missed the first bite at the cherry and we loose the easterly next week but this protracted northerly looks more realistic in terms of getting those height's hopefully up into Greenland.

cpc days 6-10/8-14 and eps at day ten

610day_03.thumb.gif.665c63fcd3aad90b302a53c84ccd9bc1.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.eae8eece812e801c820e617497c0528d.gifecmwf-ens_z500a_nhem_11.thumb.png.fb23891d51fbdb068d58fa1fa0420447.png

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2018111712&fh=264

AO still looks to tank into neg  prob due to the downwelling of the wind reversal from strat to trop as i mentioned the other day but i would like to see the NAO do the same

ao.sprd2.thumb.gif.8f11cfcfa50f5870ec219dc40d394233.gifnao.sprd2.thumb.gif.7867ed81c26c671e49917ff771a90522.gif

ecm/gefs means look good at day 10 to me

EDH1-240.thumb.GIF.d40aec40c65dfd51f0a3fdcf987b7109.GIFgensnh-21-1-240.thumb.png.ccebaf194ad8fe4f91ddcc8a5b51901d.png

we may have to suffer a slightly milder blip but the outlook looks cold after that.

graphe_ens3_uqy7.thumb.png.d72418c633fc082d8b4257e0e78b829b.pnggraphe_ens3_xkg0.thumb.gif.977197b62c972e083bd14df03273b465.gif

 

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

well this ECM run is a thriller isn’t 😌The high pressure in the atlantic going nowhere it seems 

It's an upgrade!!!

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3 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

How did it come to this, 3 days ago beast from the east and now bog standard winter fair, back to chasing Fl surely we can't keep getting this unlucky 

Screenshot_20190120-183703.png

Didn’t realise low pressure over Italy was standard stuff

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I thought this ECM was pretty good actually, depends on where you live I guess I’m in probably the worst possible place for that setup but cold pulses coming from all directions after 144 with snow chances for many, expectations are unrealistic now tbh

3AFF2517-9B98-4757-A6DF-1486B540D8A7.png

C054064F-6A22-4BA7-8ECF-DF8A0CEAF1DC.png

Edited by Weathizard
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Just now, SLEETY said:

not to what we were seeing a few days ago,now it’s Atlantic driven weather ,cold Zonal if you like.Hopeless for the majority on low ground

That’s gone and it’s not coming back for at least two weeks just enjoy the ride

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Didn’t realise low pressure over Italy was standard stuff

That low is too far South.

A Genoa low sits over northern Italy. A Sicilian one is going to give us sod all.

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6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

well this ECM run is a thriller isn’t 😌The high pressure in the atlantic going nowhere it seems 

You where saying!!!

ECH1-192.thumb.GIF.bdcde4f701465c626ae670244005b316.GIF

give the model a chance first before making a prediction.🙂

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2 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I've given up searching FI.

Ive seem pretty graphs since mid November showing the next cold spell at 10 days.

Here I am, yet to see a snowflake. 

Couldn’t agree more. 

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Ok, Victor Meldrew has arrived! haha.  I need to vent my frustrations at the current/failed easterly. Cold opportunities come and go every winter but this last one looked more 'on' than ever. Not all the models were on board but the vast were (and so the ensembles...then to see it just fade in 24 hours is beyond frustrating once again. It always seems to be the same thing that stops it...little short waves south of Greenland, they aren't picked up until the very last min... E.g...this chart from today...

image.thumb.png.02bdfb3bb6e0b1428be4a429e6a07a4f.png

 

This is what that will probably morph into... the black ovals being a shortwave/low and then we're back to the Mid Atlantic Block and dull cloudy weather...

image.thumb.png.7918fb3ee67cd93510c35d0f41af0a3a.png

 

So seeing charts at ever 144hrs away makes me roll my eyes at the present time! I think I need a few days recovery from the easterly fail hahahah. I know it's a total 1st World problem but it always seems to happen, maybe there is less reports from that area so they don't get sensed until last min.  I shall leave this thread now haha and come back in a few days when my grump has left. #VictorMicDrop

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ECM is very good - people are obsessed with having an Easterly 

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11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I wouldn't rule out a double SSW season (very rare) - i know the QBO has returned W'ly, but the vortex is not going to strengthen to the usual December / Nov levels, its likely to be weak even for a late season vortex, with AAM increasing, an active MJO and further Mountain torque events likely...........................    Freezing cold spring anyone?

No thank you, some heavy snow soon, and then the lovely warmth of the spring as the days get longer.

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Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

That low is too far South.

A Genoa low sits over northern Italy. A Sicilian one is going to give us sod all.

Thank you not sure why I need to know that information my comment was inrealation to the position of that low and it’s not your normal winter setup

 

AC4BDDC2-0653-4D66-BF1B-07B4FFD570DA.thumb.gif.96f7cd9558311dff7c3fa02211f6fe18.gif

take that chart every day of the week would like to see the transition from 168 to 192 thou how quickly did that mild sector get squeezed out

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Good NW blast coming in at 192hrs, probably cold enough for widespread snow showers, though obviously a lot more further north and west you go. Decent run so far, even if it is in the main a set-up to  a cold spell coming up.

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Well the Easterly may have gone but what we have predicted is lots of cold air and ppn in the mix - it is only a matter of time before someone gets a dumping of snow,

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1 minute ago, Banbury said:

ECM is very good - people are obsessed with having an Easterly 

People in the east do much better for snow in easterlies but meanwhile us in the west are left with nothing. A NW flow (polar maritime i think) often gives us westerners a turn for some beefy snow showers.

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Decent ECM with a snow storm at day 9 

A6679A62-11B1-41B6-A5F1-145C83519453.gif

0D1B013D-7767-4288-92CD-D81011332937.gif

3C8A5106-81CA-4897-9C58-2251026134DF.gif

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Bet the scots will be buried on that one . 

C778CE61-2D5C-455F-902C-089B2489763F.png

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Bet the scots will be buried on that one . 

C778CE61-2D5C-455F-902C-089B2489763F.png

Everyone will as it travels south 

 

 

F116A6B6-EE4C-4008-97D8-5178EB1C96A2.gif

Edited by Tim Bland
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