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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well that was traumatic! Despite all the northward, southward, eastward and westward 'corrections', I'm still none-the-wiser...?

And, as if rubbing salt into the wound, the hopes of a sustained blast of Siberian cold are also starting to fade a little!

'Morning Shaky!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!??????????????******!?

To make things worse am sure icon has gone further north again?

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Icon has shifted a little north, again similar to the 00z ECM and 00z Ukmo, for the south at least. This run looks more reasonable to me in terms of where it is placing the LPs, not quite as super elongated.

Better run for everyone as front is also a little slower so less marginal in the south.

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Icon has shifted a little north, again similar to the 00z ECM and 00z Ukmo, for the south at least. This run looks more reasonable to me in terms of where it is placing the LPs, not quite as super elongated.

Better run for everyone as front is also a little slower so less marginal in the south.

Cant wait for your snow depth updates on latest icon and ecm06z!icon looks midlands bullseye on icon 06z!!

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Just now, kold weather said:

Icon has shifted a little north, again similar to the 00z ECM and 00z Ukmo, for the south at least. This run looks more reasonable to me in terms of where it is placing the LPs, not quite as super elongated.

Better run for everyone as front is also a little slower so less marginal in the south.

Icon aligns again on amore southerly Drop.

The gfs will befair Game now @ Hrs out/away...On our 1st LPS-

Watch 4 the oxford/southerly hit!!!

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I take it you get these charts because you are a professional forecaster and they are not available to anyone.

These charts are free to view on tameteo, a French weather site, though I worry posting these they will take the ppn charts away! 

https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm

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1 hour ago, Day_10 said:

GEFS has the prolonged cold for February ending on the 3rd Feb.

yes, cold snow for some over the next couple of days but not a noteable event and certainly not the arctic freezer type conditons many yearn.

lessons?  Models are just that, and they have all failed big time this winter.  Everything of interest is always at T240 with a 48 hour climbdown on every event......

 

how does gfs vs ecm look on verification stats this week?

Ahem, we have an imposter.

Day 16 is available. ?

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The 06z ICON still roughly maintains that Hull-Liverpool northern extent fairly well on the initial thrust northwards, though some very light snow does indeed push through to Yorkshire briefly.

What IS interesting for you guys further north though is on this run there is abit of wrap around drops in. Maybe something to watch.

It is ironically a better run even for the south though, because the timing ensures the band is nearly total snow, and the band is more intense with a noteable wave of energy working along the south coast.

So UKMO/ECM/ICON all broadly agree on the LP placement and angle of attack of the frontal system. Just need the GFS to shift a little and we'd have very strong agreement. As it is, I'd back ICON/ECm/UK to have the general shape and location broadly right now.

 

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, BlackburnChris said:

Thanks, was looking in the ECM website for it and its forecaster only there.

 

1 minute ago, Nick F said:

These charts are free to view on tameteo, a French weather site, though I worry posting these they will take the ppn charts away! 

https://www.tameteo.com/modeles/en-royaume+uni-ecmwf-94.htm

Thanks, was looking in the ECM website for it and its forecaster only there.

Not sure why they are so stingy with these charts yet allow other sites to let people use them.

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7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Here’s what you could have won tonight ? for those wondering why everyone was excited about tonight a week ago when it first came into view! 

4C948121-B908-4E41-A42B-4950D0783536.png

I think if the low was heading east further north across UK rather than France it would have been rain for much of southern Britain as it is for western France. Because the low moving into France is bumping into cold continental air towards the east of the country it is turning to snow. 

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Just might be worth watching a little area of additional energy working on up the frontal system into the early evening on Thursday, the UKMO/GFS and ICON all have this area working eastwards along the front as a weak secondary feature forms. This could help to pep up the precipitation over S.England for a time.

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Thanks, was looking in the ECM website for it and its forecaster only there.

Not sure why they are so stingy with these charts yet allow other sites to let people use them.

All to do with licensing, a lot of EC data is not freely available, a company may have to pay £1000s to view their charts for commercial basis, such as precipitation type, but I believe it varies country to country how much you pay, hence we see the French, Icelandic  and US websites showing them for free.

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Yes Nick, the company I'm paying for has access to the top level of data (and they are VERY strict with regards to images of the ECM) has the 06z and 18z as well, its a considerable amount of money though for sure.

ICON really goes for a big snowfall in Cs England this run on Thursday evening. Snowfall rates about an 1-1.5 inches an hour which is pretty decent rate! Doesn't last too long however before plusing eastwards. Rough figures overall are around 5-10cms for the south, similar levels for S.Midlands and increasingly less from that point northwards.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yes Nick, the company I'm paying for has access to the top level of data (and they are VERY strict with regards to images of the ECM) has the 06z and 18z as well, its a considerable amount of money though for sure.

ICON really goes for a big snowfall in Cs England this run on Thursday evening. Snowfall rates about an 1-1.5 inches an hour which is pretty decent rate!

Good for anywhere south of birmingham/tamworth

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1 minute ago, shezale said:

Good for anywhere south of birmingham/tamworth

Rough snow line at least through 81hrs is just south of Liverpool-Hull again. UKMo/ECM/ICON has been pretty consistent with that snow line for the last 24-36hrs, even if the ICON briefly has flirted with going further south.

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3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Rough snow line at least through 81hrs is just south of Liverpool-Hull again. UKMo/ECM/ICON has been pretty consistent with that snow line for the last 24-36hrs, even if the ICON briefly has flirted with going further south.

Yeah it has been strangely consistent for a few days think the midlands wales and even southern central parts could do very well..

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It's interesting to analyse actually precipitation forecasts up to Friday, because this might give a general idea of the falls that could be possible on high ground in particular. FWIW I see these precipitation charts not as a forecast but as a ballpark figure (e.g. a prediction of 30mm could be, very roughly, anywhere between 15mm and 45mm when the counting is done).

Here's ARPEGE 00Z and 12Z from yesterday:

arpegeuk-25-102-0.png?29-05  arpegeuk-25-103-0.png?28-17

First, you can see this is not likely to be Scotland's turn except in areas exposed to a westerly (though of course more features could be picked up at just 36 hours notice).

If one assumes anywhere above 200 metres will be all snow, then there's a good chance areas such as the South Downs, North Downs, chilterns, cotswolds, Welsh mountains, Malverns, even parts of Dartmoor/Exmoor, southern Peak District, and all higher ground between Birmingham and Manchester could all clock in at over a foot of snow, depending on whether Thursday's front goes north or south.

But I think even lowland areas could see a significant fall, especially if the front is further north. You'd have to think 6 inches is the least you'd expect for midland areas based on the 12Z chart of yesterday.

Running through the precip charts, it is clear that most of this precipitation falls Thursday/Friday.

It is genuinely shaping up to be a significant snow event for the southern half of the UK.

Edited by Man With Beard
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