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Snowline further south on gfs but precipiation band around the same northward extent!!

Also low slightly further south and more cold undercut across central england with an easterly element!!again 5mb less deep!!

Edited by shaky
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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm not convinced the models are right re: Thursdays now. As we know these systems have a tendency to move Southwards as we get closer to the time. A few days ago it was a North Midlands event, today it's a central/South Midlands event with the ICON even bringing London into the risk zone, too. 

I think the sweet spot will be Wales/South Midlands area, perhaps just N of the M4 corridor, wouldn't take much to bring Southern areas into the mix again though..

This model ICON everyone quotes, what did it used to be known as? Sounds new to me?

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23 minutes ago, IDO said:

The ICON much weaker band for Thursday compared with the 0z at the same time:

iconeu_uk1-1-75-0.thumb.png.2556a3fef6567e15e8b5e505c2ec4bf0.pngiconeu_uk1-1-81-0.thumb.png.79e1dd22385738df7480980d55830947.png

Peps up 3 hours later:

2119045865_iconeu_uk1-1-81-0(1).thumb.png.5a981aebbd854e0f0d8c817a014e18ac.png

I think when the precipitation comes into view on the day, If it reaches northern ireland, good news for the north.

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1 minute ago, gottolovethisweather said:

This model ICON everyone quotes, what did it used to be known as? Sounds new to me?

It used to at one point be DWD/GME I believe, but its had a rather large upgrade since those days. It was always seen ads a bit of a sister model to the ECM as they'd often spot similar things at the same time.

Edited by kold weather
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definite signs of a north/south divide here......members north of Brum ..."I think the north looks the sweet spot, GFS et al always correct this way".....members south of Brum...."I think the south and midlands look the sweet spot, GFS et al always correct southwards this way".......Me?.....why can't the GFS et al ever have a sweet spot approximately 3 miles south of the M4, just to the south of Swindon....lol

but getting back on topic, for us snow starved members, the variances of current modelling has us treading on eggshells, just a small change to track and orientation on the incoming weather systems will have a huge difference in what falls out of the sky!

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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Being disruptive on netweather never leads to a happy conclusion but disruptive snow does!!..the models show a wintry week ahead..enjoy!??❄️:cold-emoji::gathering:☃️

Let the meteorological version of snakes & ladders continue, karl...Hope the 'stonker of all stonkers' shows up soon!:cold:

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4 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

GFS 78h still looks good for more northern areas. Also bbc had the snow on thursday night reaching as far north as southern scotland!

image.thumb.png.afb9e5afdaa91f132337b4df86fda225.png

I hope so,although from this mornings posts with folk stating that it's edging south on each run,us snow starved Yorkshire peeps look like missing out all week!..???

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2 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Oooo infact gfs 06z does correct a tad south, I hope this doesn't become a trend. A few crucial runs yet to come 

image.thumb.png.d0f4b62b59e2347428e25b80972147e2.png

What is more interesting to note is it forms a little feature to the east.

The ECM and its ensembles (ICON as well) has this feature as well and in a lot of cases that actually slants the winds ESE for the south which is linits the higher dew points right to the coastal areas.

The GFS doesn't quite get there and the angle of approach is dreadful for us down here, however wouldn't take a whole lot to change the 06z GFS into the 06z ICON snow distribution wise!

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10 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

So it seems the Icon against most other models in extent of the northwards extent of the heavy/meaningful precipitation thursday

How accurate is this model? GFS at <80h should shawly have a good grasp on this. 

It corrected North for the Tuesday event by about 50-100 miles or so.

(shhh, don't tell anyone. I don't think they noticed.....)

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3 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Oooo infact gfs 06z does correct a tad south, I hope this doesn't become a trend. A few crucial runs yet to come 

image.thumb.png.d0f4b62b59e2347428e25b80972147e2.png

I think it is best to be realistic about the situation tbf, the one in Dec 2017 was about the same position at this lead time, and at a similar tilt, that ended up as a midlands Jackpot, it didn't even reach here despite the council saying they were expecting 20cm.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think it is best to be realistic about the situation tbf, the one in Dec 2017 was about the same position at this lead time, and at a similar tilt, that ended up as a midlands Jackpot, it didn't even reach here despite the council saying they were expecting 20cm.

Correct, remember the NW being in the firing line with severe weather warnings. The system stayed further south with Wales, the Midlands, EA & northern parts of SE England seeing the most snow. Had 3-4 inches of snow here in north London. Spoke to a client of mine based near Widnes the next day and they said all they had were on and off snow flurries with a slight dusting. 

Shows how much these situations become a nowcasting event. 

Edited by danm
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I think it is best to be realistic about the situation tbf, the one in Dec 2017 was about the same position at this lead time, and at a similar tilt, that ended up as a midlands Jackpot, it didn't even reach here despite the council saying they were expecting 20cm.

Yeah your probably right mate. I've lost count over the years how many times these type of set-ups shift further south nearer the time! 

Deep down I'm kind of anticipating the southward  corrections but live in hope lol. Was pleasantly suprised this morning when checking the charts though, were still well in the game.

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On the GFS 06z there may be an amber alert in the SE for flooding from rain, very active!

The sweet spot, maybe two days of near-continuous snow is the East & West Midlands, S Yorkshire and close by!

anim_aen8.gif

Click for giff...

Edited by IDO
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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a different model altogether.

Really? I seem to remember the NAE becoming the EURO4 too.. in any event, EURO4 is one of the best short range models out there, Met office often using a blend of EURO4/UKV

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

On the GFS 06z there may be an amber alert in the SE for flooding from rain, very active!

The sweet spot, maybe two days of near-continuous snow is the East & West Midlands, S Yorkshire and close by!

anim_aen8.gif

VERY different from most models though it has to be said. IF the 06z GFS is right, then somewhere gets a 1ft almost certainly.

GEM, UKMO, ECM and ICON all rather rapidly weaken the front once it gets around Liverpool-Hull.

Think that is probably the GFS doing its normal bias of pushing these systems too far and fast to the NE.

PS, also those models have the snow boundary a fair way south of where the GFS has it.

Edited by kold weather
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6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

After having a little browse through

Icon gfs 

The sweetspot is right over by back garden in north london

Bit of a surprise im in shock ?

 

Look at the actual snow on the ground images and you wont be so excited .......

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