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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL at that Canadian vortex, still throwing too much energy into the Atlantic ..

That spells undercut!!!

lets see where we go on that😁

Edited by Allseasons-si

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22 minutes ago, Cheese Rice said:

The 18z ironically pushes snow cover further north than the 12z no lying snow for the far South 

 

uksnowdepth.png

That's ok for once I'm in the one area of the South East with snow cover according to this chart that little green slit covering NW Kent/S London 😂

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes - worst thing is its still throwing energy into the Atlantic when it doesn't even exist!!

It’s actually going in reverse after 192h. That 960 low being literally squeezed out of existence.

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I think it's going  to be impossible to avoid a spell of milder uppers prior to the next cold spell, as ridging from the Azores kicks in.

We'll then need to wait for another round of amplification to our West and this time hope it can link across to the north east.

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6 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Have to disagree on this - there is cold air penetrating the UK tonight, widespread frost expected, with lows -3 degrees. There is snow at 500 metres on the Cumbrian fells today. Last week delivered snowfall to here, this week will see colder uppers and thicknesses mid week than last. Evaporative cooling effect, favourable dewpoints, frontal activity rather than convection - all enhance the risk of snow down to very low levels for many.

Whilst I don't agree with Steve Thexton's post about needing to be 750m I do feel his general apprehension about snow prospects. 

The conditions are not favourable for widespread snow on Tuesday. Also evaporative cooling only really starts to become apparent when there is moderate-heavy precipitation. There might be some squalls embedded locally within the frontal band that might form some sort of evaporative cooling locally but for the majority this variable probably won't show up.

Edited by Optimus Prime
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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Have to disagree on this - there is cold air penetrating the UK tonight, widespread frost expected, with lows -3 degrees. There is snow at 500 metres on the Cumbrian fells today. Last week delivered snowfall to here, this week will see colder uppers and thicknesses mid week than last. Evaporative cooling effect, favourable dewpoints, frontal activity rather than convection - all enhance the risk of snow down to very low levels for many.

Was on the fells this afternnoon. freezing level much nearer 750metres by end of day with one hell of a wind chill . Evaporative cooling is great.... but then as soon as percipitation eases it all melts in 20 mins!

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11 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Looking at the ICON charts for Tuesday.

850hPa plot looks very borderline for SE areas but probably on the right side of marginal for more northern and western areas. 

image.thumb.png.370910e350fd7aba94d81c7e2ae9c1b2.png

2m Dewpoints reveal a similar picture. Not good for the southern and eastern areas but better for northern and western areas. Dew points do look to drop ahead of the front though, particularly for SE areas.

image.thumb.png.ea5e5760d7720be4381dfb3e881e518d.png

Nothing particularly different in regards to 2m temperature either

image.thumb.png.7e9980410d451080ae47c97a1531642c.png

Perhaps snow for northern and western areas. Rain to sleet and maybe snow to finish of for the south and east. Not expecting much out of this anywhere away from high ground. (>150m)

Having looked at most of the output, then unless the UKMO is correct this is how I am seeing it too. I suspect that many areas will not have enough settled snow to make a snowman, but that changes the further north you are or with elevation. It’s a big test of a sliding low from the northwest entering a fairly cold airmass, but not severely so.

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GFS is hideous further on,there can surely be no doubt unless we see something soon Exteter will surely revise their outook?

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33 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

MetO 72hr fax chart - Deffo snow maker I see there 🙂

Dx80L7EX4AAIMXU.jpg

That and the one before are superb for the South and SE.  I would take note of these rather than anything else at this stage.  Very nowcasting required as the models shift this LP about.

I won’t be commenting/deciding now until the 12z tomorrow ...

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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So where from here then GFS T240:

image.thumb.jpg.d28d4ab88d605318e4863432d3c9d403.jpg

Vortex has already lost the battle, but we haven't won, yet! Might take a week to get the cold air to us,  maybe that's what we should now watch for.

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1 minute ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That and the one before are superb for the South and SE.  I would take note of these rather than anything else at this stage.  Very nowcasting required as the models shift this LP about.

I won’t be commenting/deciding now until the 12z tomorrow ...

BFTP

Thats what I thought, Thank you for clarifying!


Also, GFS(p) has the low further south to 18z

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GFS(p) has the low further south instead of the north like the GFS18z was showing - More risk wales, and South and some central areas and E/A and S/E

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13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That spells undercut!!!

lets see where we go on that😁

Indeed - not sure where people expect the sliders to come from without it doing that ....

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2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

That and the one before are superb for the South and SE.  I would take note of these rather than anything else at this stage.  Very nowcasting required as the models shift this LP about.

I won’t be commenting/deciding now until the 12z tomorrow ...

BFTP

What is interesting is it has very little support from any other model. The only one that was somewhat close was the EURO4, which it has to be said is not a bad model to have support from at this range.

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I have to say I completely disagree with many who say that Tuesday evening will not bring significant snow. I am not too bothered if every model is against the met office if at any point that was the case I would always back METO. They have proved to be right in the past and will continue to be in the future. 

I said this about the last event and many were moaning about how nothing will fall 'unless over hills' and yet many places saw some snow.

People may well be surprised waking up Wednesday morning to in my opinion some significant snow. 

I could be proven wrong of course..but last time my estimate was correct despite it being an unpopular opinion!😁

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Just now, kold weather said:

What is interesting is it has very little support from any other model. The only one that was somewhat close was the EURO4, which it has to be said is not a bad model to have support from at this range.

Think I would trust a fax chart more than a model to be completly honest 🙂

 

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2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

GFS(p) has the low further south instead of the north like the GFS18z was showing - More risk wales, and South and some central areas and E/A and S/E

All depends on the angle of the low. The latitude only makes a smallish amount of difference, the angle of approach will determine how much the milder air comes up.

Wouldn't be too surprised to see this evolve like Jan 13 which also did shift south only a few days, but hard to say.

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Just now, kold weather said:

All depends on the angle of the low. The latitude only makes a smallish amount of difference, the angle of approach will determine how much the milder air comes up.

Wouldn't be too surprised to see this evolve like Jan 13 which also did shift south only a few days, but hard to say.

Think you could be on to something there,

Like the GFS(p) has corrected it further south slightly

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Northwesternsnow you say this literally daily, why would the met office revise there update based on a soon to be discarded gfs18z run, you do realize they have just a little bit more data at there disposal! The gfs for me goes from narnia charts to heatwave charts over the course of 24hours, they really must be having a good laugh if they ever get to read these posts 

Its not just GFS in isolation though Matt- GEFS and EC meanss are trending away from cold..

I didn't base my post on one GFS op-

We'll see, hopefully we will begin to see something more appealing in the coming days..

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Indeed - not sure where people expect the sliders to come from without it doing that ....

Yep

trough digging downstream with height's up stream into Scandi

beats a west>east jet flow.

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not just GFS in isolation though Matt- GEFS are trending away from cold..

I didn't base my post on one GFS op-

We'll see, hopefully we will begin to see something more appealing in the coming days..

 

I have to agree based on the models at our disposal. 1-3cms Tuesday most likely which will possibly melt before any transient snowfall for those south of Birmingham Thursday. Of course there's a lot of fine margin weather next week so small improvements could see a significant difference but at this stage upgrades required.

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The two interacting lows and the pivot point on Thursday’s event is going to be an interesting one, the 18z runs are having them meet slightly earlier, which is pushing the PPN towards Scotland as they start to swing around.

Edited by ukpaul

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