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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Still expect where I am in London to see snow ?

I wouldn't. Need further corrections south to see something substantial at that latitude. Perhaps transient snow/rain looks like the present order. Still plenty of time for the models to show something different between now and then though.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Just now, MP-R said:

I wouldn't. Need further corrections south to see something substantial at that latitude. Perhaps transient snow/rain looks like the present order. Still plenty of time for the models to show something different between now and then though.

Gathering from the fax chart, certainly looks likely... Also, I suspect this low true path will be slight south ?

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes I think plenty of surprises coming up. Forget not how on normal rainy charts, you can wake up seeing no rain forecast (or plenty) and go to bed having seen plenty (or none)! 

Another little twist I see - the normally generous HIRLAM sees Tuesday's event as a predominantly midlands one. Hmmm

Yes HIRLAM doesn't have snow for the south on the front, certainly interesting!

However I suspect the front would turn to snow very rapidly from the point onwards that the HIRLAM leaves us at. I think the reason is it develops a new LP which does make a difference I feel.

Still, worth a watch just in case.

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1 minute ago, Steve Thexton said:

Think some of the posters on here need to get real. There is nothing like cold enough temperatures in place for any real or lasting snow event. Its getting on for 3 degrees at 80m in  south Cumbria at the moment and no chance of snow below 750m in the foreseeable future. get off the happy pills and give yourselves a break- its not going to happen for most!

Well.. Looks like MOST will be seeing a surprise then, because I can see quite a few places seeing snow.

Don't be a Doobie Downer

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Pub run T144:

image.thumb.jpg.ea9d101b5dfd40bd2fb8439368bc66a7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.7bb0646df8df4bc176ff24864498cdbc.jpg

Uppers a bit warm but you can see the pattern,  get the northern blocking in first and the cold will come, then get the cold in first and the snow will come,  And plenty of winter left to enjoy!  All good on planet Poole!

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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Gathering from the fax chart, certainly looks likely... Also, I suspect this low true path will be slight south ?

Just keeping expectations low lol. The M4 is rearing its head yet again so I guess the further north in the London area the better. It's fascinating to watch but only really an enjoyable experience if something delivers in the end. 

These setups tend to correct south with time with a more sluggish Atlantic, and vice versa when not so all to play for still methinks.

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From a uk POV,this week is prime time for some good dumpings of snow because whilst we are north of the PJF then we stay on the cool/cold side and any moisture layden systems that come into these cold uppers will provide some fun and games,not to mention troughs into the flow too of which can pop up at short times

here is my prep for this week

1,camera fully charged?

2,car full of fuel?

3,snow shovel

4,prozac?

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1 minute ago, MP-R said:

Just keeping expectations low lol. The M4 is rearing its head yet again so I guess the further north in the London area the better. It's fascinating to watch but only really an enjoyable experience if something delivers in the end. 

These setups tend to correct south with time with a more sluggish Atlantic, and vice versa when not so all to play for still methinks.

I am not in central London, I am in Wembley - So outskirts,

Most people expect it to correct south, I'd expect that to be honest - Historically speaking 9/10 a low likes to go south

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Perhaps an apt time to create a short-term snow prospect thread - alas my earlier post not to clog up this thread with speculation about snow and depths and position has gone unheard.

The short - term snow prospect thread could then be used to discuss models with respect to whether they are showing snow for said region..

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Looking at the ICON charts for Tuesday.

850hPa plot looks very borderline for SE areas but probably on the right side of marginal for more northern and western areas. 

image.thumb.png.370910e350fd7aba94d81c7e2ae9c1b2.png

2m Dewpoints reveal a similar picture. Not good for the southern and eastern areas but better for northern and western areas. Dew points do look to drop ahead of the front though, particularly for SE areas.

image.thumb.png.ea5e5760d7720be4381dfb3e881e518d.png

Nothing particularly different in regards to 2m temperature either

image.thumb.png.7e9980410d451080ae47c97a1531642c.png

Perhaps snow for northern and western areas. Rain to sleet and maybe snow to finish of for the south and east. Not expecting much out of this anywhere away from high ground. (>150m)

Edited by Optimus Prime
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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh well, that settles it then. It's not like weather conditions can change or that we have colder air spreading south over the next few days. The snow risks showing on various computer models must be a figment of our imagination.

Well we'll see and no one more than i would like to see you all right, but at at the moment there is nothing like enough embedded cold for a decent snow event without altitude. Of course ... this may just be the start of greater things but the way ALL models have been modelling synoptics beyond around 120hrs no one can reliably say at present.  It is good model watching though!!

 

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2 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Looking at the ICON charts for Tuesday.

850hPa plot looks very borderline for SE areas but probably on the right side of marginal for more northern and western areas. 

image.thumb.png.370910e350fd7aba94d81c7e2ae9c1b2.png

2m Dewpoints tell a similar picture. Not good for the southern and eastern areas but better for northern and western areas. Dew points do look to drop ahead of the front though, particularly for SE areas.

image.thumb.png.ea5e5760d7720be4381dfb3e881e518d.png

Nothing particularly different in regards to 2m temperature either

image.thumb.png.7e9980410d451080ae47c97a1531642c.png

Perhaps snow for northern and western areas. Rain to sleet and maybe snow to finish of for the south and east. Not expecting much out of this anywhere away from high ground. (>150m)

The front wouldn't reach south eastern areas for several more hours, by which time dew points and temperatures would be lower.

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

LOL at that Canadian vortex, still throwing too much energy into the Atlantic ..

Yes - worst thing is its still throwing energy into the Atlantic when it doesn't even exist!!

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9 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Oh well, that settles it then. It's not like weather conditions can change or that we have colder air spreading south over the next few days. The snow risks showing on various computer models must be a figment of our imagination.

Well said, comments like that are the reason I stopped reading the other forum site, I fail to see what the current temperature in any location as got to do with a snow risk in a few days, 

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