Cold hunt - models and chat

[MATTWOLVES 3]

5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Icon has Tuesday's frontal system further north. More of the North Midlands into play.

Just for a bit of IMBYism 

18z vs 12z

  

Liking your style mattstoke, but hey ho, dose the entire country in it and I'll be as happy as a pig in........ A blanket

[Harsh Climate]

On the icon, just looks like a fast moving clipper from the west, Couple hours of snow producing maybe 1-3cm.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Thursdays low looks a bit north? less cold air into south? or not, maybe need a shift south for Midlands

[SMU]

The ICON moves closer to the UKMO but not close enough at this stage- 

NB the moisture plume in NW france on the 18z V 12z ( UKMO probs 75 miles further NW )

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

What’s interesting for coldies in the favoured areas on Thursday is the pivot and edging se .

Some areas could see an extended spell of snow but don’t ask me where yet!

C’mon where nick

take a punt

[Allseasons-Si]

Right!!!

lets have a look at some charts to see where we might be going at day ten+

the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day anomoly charts show an upper westerly flow into the uk(green lines) but show slp systems s of uk with +ve height's to our north,to me this shows lp systems tracking under the block to our north and still on the cool side of the pjf(polar jet front),all subject to change but this is what i am ilustrating now what could happen

the AO(Arctic Oscillation) still forcasted to trend neg into -4 but will it uptick like that afterwards?,stay tuned

the eps/gefs at day ten not too dissimilar to the cpc^

day 16 from gefs signals a retrogression west into Greenland

in the shorter term(this week),there are plenty of snow opertunities for just about everyone,be it N,S,E,or W,not to mention the SW,NW,NE,SE and places could see upto three feet of snow and this maybe your garden path come the end of the week

 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by Allseasons-si
spell correction

[Mike Poole]

ICON T120 gets the trough deep into Europe we have  been seeing a good synoptic pattern,  850's lagging  but should catch up, all output points to a colder spell initiating, if it's prolonged, issues over upper temperatures will quickly evaporate.  Good model output today!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

can't believe how much it reminds me of this! only day ever I've been sent home from school, 15cms snow

[damianslaw]

Quite a few posts creeping into this thread about snow prospects for different parts of the UK - this is a reminder that such posts should be placed in the regionals.. I fear otherwise this thread over the next few days will become clogged up with such posts - much to the annoyance of anyone who may not be interested in what isn't happening on their doorstep.

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Looked heavier and further north and west at 43 hours!!

Indeed - it weakens as it heads se ....... it did the same on the earlier run compared with the one before .....there is a variation over the midlands/nw with where the heaviest snow falls but the front is weaker as it gets into the  se of England ....that’s all I was pointing out

[shaky]

5 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Thursdays low looks a bit north? less cold air into south? or not, maybe need a shift south for Midlands

Its much better for the midlands mate!!ir reckon this run would be a better copping than the last one!!shape of the low is so much better!!

[nick sussex]

8 minutes ago, snowbob said:

C’mon where nick

take a punt

You’re having a laugh !

I wouldn’t dare at this stage , the set up continues to change and it would probably be old news by the morning .

But for your location you’d want the Thursday low to weaken further and slide se much more before any pivot .

 

 

Edited January 27, 2019 by nick sussex

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the ICON, it looks as though Thurs has the potential to maintain snow across the front W mids, Central/ N Wales up into N England. Possibly 5-10cm as a rough guide on current projection.

[shaky]

Snowy as heck this run for midlands and wales!!!gona check out the accumulation charts!!

10-15cms widely midlands wales and north england!!!!!

Edited January 27, 2019 by shaky

[Bartlett High]

Well thankfully the council have put a brand new powerful lightbulb in the lamppost opposite my house....I've got the armchair in prime position in front of the window so this better be good!!!

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

You’re having a laugh !

I wouldn’t dare at this stage , the set up continues to change and it would probably be old news by the morning .

But for your location you’d want the Thursday low to weaken further and slide se much more before any pivot .

 

 

Yeah I was being cheeky

way to close to call mate be a brave man to try

but thanks for response all the same

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Looking at the ICON, it looks as though Thurs has the potential to maintain snow across the front W mids, Central/ N Wales up into N England. Possibly 5-10cm as a rough guide on current projection.

This has got 10th Dec 2017 written all over it.

[MattStoke]

ICON precipitation type charts for Thursday. Front struggles to get to the far north of England before fizzling out. Snow for most, but rain for the south west and far south.

Edited January 27, 2019 by MattStoke

[SMU]

This is your Northward Extent for Thurs.

Expect more corrections South & more eastward 'pulses' as the front seperates

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

This has got 10th Dec 2017 written all over it.

I'd take that all day long!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, mattstoke, mattwolves and me inbetween

No inyabackyardism from me Atlantic, if the snow gets all dumped 100mile south east then I'll travel down there and enjoy it with the locals, net weather ayy we!!

[nick sussex]

Just now, snowbob said:

Yeah I was being cheeky

way to close to call mate be a brave man to try

but thanks for response all the same

You’re welcome . The models have really made a drama over that low . If we think back a few days they were intent on lifting out the cold for most of the UK with those horrible bowling ball lows . So things have changed for the better .

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This has got 10th Dec 2017 written all over it.

and 19th Nov '96, hopefully anyway

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'd take that all day long!

I got just a few light flakes on the sunday afternoon, Steve's right, it will correct south again, the problem for you is, it was over NE England at this lead time last time, there is so many more runs worth of Southward corrections, i fear even you will miss out, i have given up already,  Gloucestershire down M4 corridor to London is my line.

[Methuselah]

No snow today, the snowman's gone away; the snowman's gone away...If only the weather was like it was, in the 1960s?

Well, it's not! So it's manyana, manyana, manyana! AGAIN!