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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

It's that time again where we get to observe the 12z runs.. Expecting any decent changes?

I expect almost the same run as 06z regarding gfs. Pattern seems pretty consistent now and imo better to forecast. Some minor changes to LPs won't modify the pattern. 

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22 minutes ago, P-M said:

So is this an improvement on the Icon?

No real return to anything mild going by that run. Now that the noise of that US storm is coming to an end, hopefully we will see less entropy. Time will tell

 Not sure the UKMO got the memo though 🤷‍♂️😂

B8E2031C-8E0D-4797-A2CD-448C53B9732A.thumb.gif.0013509b57030305012d8068f5f0b060.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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Just now, Empire Of Snow said:

I expect almost the same run as 06z regarding gfs. Pattern seems pretty consistent now and imo better to forecast. Some minor changes to LPs won't modify the pattern. 

It is looking that way at the moment, minor changes if any to be honest to its previous 6z run.

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Icon and ukmo looking similar at 144hrs.hopefully things will gather pace ie  wintry synoptics

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Icon and ukmo looking similar at 144hrs.hopefully things will gather pace ie  wintry synoptics

Ukmo wouldn’t necessarily head the way icon is ...icon has already gone se by day 6 ....looks a bit isolated at the moment ....

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Looks like UKMO already has eyes on the next chance, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.45c625afbdbe64028a76a5e707016573.jpg

GEM more so same time

image.thumb.jpg.a5eb46a21cfc884e5884536169c16d14.jpg

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Looks quite different to me, that low out at the southern tip of Greenland is significantly deeper and earlier, hopefully the strong low to our north sends some energy southwards to flatten the Azores nosing in again.

34838F37-92EE-41DD-A269-3F3E18445A65.png

Edited by Weathizard
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Gfs 12z much better ridging at 120hrs +,!!!

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Better GFS with the Northerly coming in much faster compared with the 6z

GFS.thumb.png.b719fb312a4634a0b02bcfbea8bd1f11.png

Riding up to Greenland forcing the second low back NW and into the Greenland shredder 

Edited by Daniel Smith
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I have been watching the weather models like a hawk in the hope of a severe cold spell, unfortunately looking less likely for next week although it will still be on the chilly side. EC model is predicting north to north easterlies for Thursday but they soon change to westerlies as the Azores high nudges in to the southwest and an enormous area of low pressure in the north moves into Iceland so chances for cold and snow for the southeast are very slim as milder air arrives by Saturday, however, by the 29th I’m seeing high pressure building over Scandinavia and low pressure moving south east of the uk so possibility of an easterly or northeasterly but very uncertain as there is over a week to go, icon is thinking it will happen a bit earlier but there is still a lot to play for.

I WANT COLD

image courtesy of windy.com showing the icon-Eu prediction for next Friday

83C5CB70-83DD-4275-9D37-0B333CBC59E9.png

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Looks like UKMO already has eyes on the next chance, T144:

image.thumb.jpg.45c625afbdbe64028a76a5e707016573.jpg

GEM more so same time

image.thumb.jpg.a5eb46a21cfc884e5884536169c16d14.jpg

And add the gfs 12z to that Mike 👍. Next opportunity incoming . 

D0AB3588-B398-468F-AE81-7E690509388C.png

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Northeasterly incoming earlier unless there are significant changes in the Atlantic later in this run. gfs-0-144.png?12

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Looks quite different to me, that low out at the southern tip of Greenland is significantly deeper and earlier, hopefully the strong low to our north sends some energy southwards to flatten the Azores nosing in again.

34838F37-92EE-41DD-A269-3F3E18445A65.png

A nearly vertical pv..

And with that a pressure punch from the-pacific ridge.

Its getting ready for pop and drop..

Like as -a tottenham fan this arvo!!..

Alls well.

In both the weather world..and the football 1..

@gunners..😉

gfsnh-0-138 (3).png

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Nice, let’s see if we can count something like this down over the next 3 days, still not sure I can see any HLB forming thou

70BB9EBA-50D7-4ED3-ACCB-EA156FD0BCEA.png

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Trends look similar to this morning .

The UKMO does have a bit more trough disruption at day 5 so possible the cold won’t lift out ahead of the fronts , I think a bit more disruption  might well see the flow moving towards a more se .

Still some uncertainties in the shorter term re the low dropping se and that issue of trough disruption but generally good agreement day 6 onwards as the upstream pattern is going to help displace the Azores high with the jet tracking se.

 

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Gfs and gem now leav8ng Ukmo as the odd one out ...gem looking like repeating this week 

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