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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON at the weekend, maybe what the Met meant viz "easterly": icon-0-150.thumb.png.5e7a0502eaf01bae11020a7df4449cc7.png

No but it is what the bbc were referring to when people on here keep saying bbc talking about easterly winds on Friday

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
4 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON at the weekend, maybe what the Met meant viz "easterly": icon-0-150.thumb.png.5e7a0502eaf01bae11020a7df4449cc7.png

Not great 850s there but going forward a good set up imo

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

It's very much an overused phrase (probably by me), but at 180 the PV really is in tatters according to the ICON

image.thumb.png.a0b70d28285501b9a0fa1aefc89fab33.png

Opportunities aplenty from this point one would have thought?

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

No but it is what the bbc were referring to when people on here keep saying bbc talking about easterly winds on Friday

Yes, that was what I was referring to. Not a real Siberian/Scandi easterly of course! But in a slack setup will keep the UK relatively cold and the NH profile:

iconnh-0-180.thumb.png.283dd12449ce1f4af6b4b7e875379191.png

The 12z yesterday from ICON had similar "potential"!!!

Edited by IDO
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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yes i would like to see this trend on the 12zs... Canadian vortex retreating!!

Finally moving it’s a**e

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

This massive cold pool over Siberia could have our name on a few days down the line?  Maybe this is the 'very cold' scenario that the Met Office is alluding to?

image.thumb.png.ef5df844b30d95c3fca1c550d1f23a87.png

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MKN Community Regular

MKN

Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
Posted
13 minutes ago, IDO said:

ICON 1st low: anim_iuo2.gif

Should get 1.5 - 2.5 hours of snow out of that but with each run, the LP slipping further south this front will get weaker and not really as promising for the south as we hoped. Zero chance of the low coming anywhere near the UK and the second low is not going to be close, for snow, for the M4 south, so just hoping this run is not the trend.

That's about 30 minutes and 1-2cms. Very poor if it plays out like that. 

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's very much an overused phrase (probably by me), but at 180 the PV really is in tatters according to the ICON

image.thumb.png.a0b70d28285501b9a0fa1aefc89fab33.png

Opportunities aplenty from this point one would have thought?

Yes going forward good nhp.get them 850s down and game on imo

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

This massive cold pool over Siberia could have our name on a few days down the line?  Maybe this is the 'very cold' scenario that the Met Office is alluding to?

image.thumb.png.ef5df844b30d95c3fca1c550d1f23a87.png

I would imagine it’s the small chance mentioned in the 6/15 dayer for the back end of the period ...  certainly an interesting NH profile as yesterday’s ukmo day 6 was but we need to see more of these to gain some confidence that musings are turning into reality 

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Deep Snow please Rising Star

Deep Snow please

Posted
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
  • Location: Blackburn - 180m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

It's very much an overused phrase (probably by me), but at 180 the PV really is in tatters according to the ICON

image.thumb.png.a0b70d28285501b9a0fa1aefc89fab33.png

Opportunities aplenty from this point one would have thought?

That's an interesting low pressure coming off the US. 

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WhiteFox Community Regular

WhiteFox

Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
Posted
20 minutes ago, JeffC said:

 


The trouble is with NWP, the output is based upon scenarios resulting from a specific set of data inputs interacting with algorithms. When the data changes, and as the effects of the SSW down well, that data will change, it can give false signals which, being computers and working on logic, brings different resulting outputs and hence the models flip, flop and do the hokey cokey with GPH, troughs and all the other associated weather features.

 

This is a key point. We are well aware that a small difference in data has a huge impact on the SLP further down the line; even without an SSW we often see big variations because of chaos theory.

Now, throw into the mix a downwelling SSW which has caused forecasting issues in the upper atmosphere. What you get is an even greater level of error as you progress through time on an NWP model.

What are we seeing at day 8 on the ECM? Something that is very different from what was shown on the day 10 two days ago. 

We do not know what the Met Office are seeing in their models, but they clearly have an indication that either the Arctic profile will shift towards blocking in our part of the world, and/or tropical forcing helping this along. As with all medium to longer term forecasts, this is based on an element of probability and no doubt there is still a probability that we will not see the cold outcome.

There is absolutely nothing run with commenting on models and their output, but it is very clear that solutions are subject to large amounts of uncertainty beyond four or five days. If the Met Office and those of us who have/are saying that there is still a good chance of a colder outbreak are wrong, then so be it. However, it is all about learning where we went wrong this time and incorporating the lessons into future forecasts. That is science, and that is how we make progress...

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Blizzardof82 Community Regular

Blizzardof82

Posted
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers and cold winters with snow.
  • Location: Pucklechurch near Bristol 113m ASL
Posted

12z GFS has the low running more Northerly than ICON so no change really for Tuesday going on that output.

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Seems GFS has the low more north than ICON, similar to 6z?

Less intense but similar position to 06z it’s where it takes it. 06z had it going ne at 66 against most other output. We will see very soon.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

GFS more to the north and not diving SE like the ICON at least upto 48hrs.

I had hoped we would get better agreement starting form tonights 12z suite, but that's not looking the case right now. GFS 12z though looks a real good middle ground between the extreme southerly solutions and the extreme northerly solutions (which have cropped up numerous times in ensembles, but never really on an operational run). 

Once again the surface weather though probably not that much different from the ICON. 2hrs probably of moderate snowfall, 1-3cms again probably if this run was verbatim.

Also faster, which equals BAD.

Edited by kold weather
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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
Just now, That ECM said:

Less intense but similar position to 06z it’s where it takes it. 06z had it going ne at 66 against most other output. We will see very soon.

Seems slightly stronger than 6z? Similar to 00z? and comes quicker?

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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

This massive cold pool over Siberia could have our name on a few days down the line?  Maybe this is the 'very cold' scenario that the Met Office is alluding to?

image.thumb.png.ef5df844b30d95c3fca1c550d1f23a87.png

Yes I said earlier we could start seeing a change pressure rises to north east the meto have been bashing this for a while let’s see if the trend continues..

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

So by my reckoning, based on this GFS run, between 48-60, pretty much the whole of Ireland and the UK are seeing some snow.  That's a rare beast!

image.thumb.png.f2592e415e9c6ff97971dc5f55fd6998.png image.thumb.png.03fe1a265463a959f5d441c9eb643291.png image.thumb.png.87bd6bfc70068112d899e216e1a20792.png

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted (edited)

So what's going on with the UKMO at 120 then!!! Edit. wonder what the uppers are there?
image.thumb.png.13176b51a729c16dd8b6058866cbf125.png

Edited by Ice Day
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