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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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1 minute ago, sparky1972 said:

morning all, well, just back from my half marathon training run and my legs are knackered, so i might just chill on the sofa for the afternoon and get ready for the ups and downs of todays model output and fingers crossed a snowy cold outlook is just around the corner.

I totally understand where you're coming from. I walked up and down the stairs earlier on today, my legs are completely gone! Let's hope the cold/snowy trend of 8 days time continues 😉

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Until next charts come  out once we get  into fed its looking  very  tasty at  the  moment, plus you don't get moaned at in here!,

 

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06z GFS sums up my thoughts going forward perfectly. Low pressure systems tracking NW>SE across the UK into Europe with repeated attempts for high pressure to amplify Northwards. I.E remaining below average with snow risks. Eventually (?) we're likely to see heights become more sustained to our North, more of a matter of when rather than if

957991869_GFSPressureLevEurope500hPaHeightAnom(1).thumb.gif.10d1e87d21d57bd3704337f714687745.gif

 

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think this is where the confidence in the pattern is stemming from. Totally different scenario to this failed easterly setup. Presuming it fails, which looks all but settled now. 

We were really up against it with hindsight, PV nowhere to go, Azores high to close by. 

 

Yes Karlos after a bad start to the weekend my spirits are lifted both on a weather and football front ! 😎

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49 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Well.. 

2A3DBF4C-93BF-4C50-BF3D-189A4924E328.thumb.png.e16dc4e43a4304edfa10365fd5a4f947.png

Extended cluster, just one 

Unfortunately that doesn't tell us as much as we might think, it isn't a mean that is showing us just ensemble member 36!  (the Fulltr. means 'delegate' in Icelandic, the member chosen to best illustrate the cluster, not very helpful if there is only one cluster).  

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1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

With Tues morning being my focus, Tues evening with the cold in place could be a nice dusting for the midlands south.

 

gfs-2-60.png

If at altitude yes i agree, I believe for the rest of us it will be vile cold rain! Much like Friday turned out to be... 😔

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Hats off to the original poster, genius.. really made me laugh a lot and fully deserves an encore to go with a few charts from the Gfs 6z..I have a feeling the models will bring plenty of similar reactions during the weeks ahead!😉:cold::cold-emoji:❄️:gathering:

06_300_preciptype.png

06_300_ukthickness850.png

06_360_ukthickness850.png

1907553169_THATGFS.thumb.gif.c563c9262115376a6be69a603c1522f6.gif

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

Means are only useful if you alsoview the spreads or clusters ....... it gives you a template from which to work ....... fwiw, this weeks diving trough was initially obvious from the mean/anoms ......

You've got me there, Nick. I've even been perusing them, myself! Anomalies I mean...😁

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Back to the models.. For those of us desperately clinging onto some sort of easterly this week, would you guys say the 12z at 3:30 is the last chance for models to start retracting back to that or do you think the chance has 100% gone?

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Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week..

EDIT: it hasn't actually updated yet, false alarm

Edited by Daniel Smith

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week..

That's what we like to hear !

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week..

It’s guaranteed ......just much shorter in timespan and weaker in intensity than was once the favoured route 

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Meto update STILL going for North-Easterlies later in the week..

Is it because they are slow at updating to the latest models or that there ‘data’ which we can’t view still shows an easterly.

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1 hour ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Anyone have a feeling that FI will verify this time or is it just me? We're actually having cross agreement of most models at a large time frame which doesn't happen often. The Azores small ridge eastwards is beneficial and I can't see right now how it's possible after this to miss a Northeasterly. It seems that we can be attacked by cold by both directions, northwest and northeast. 

 Fingers crossed. 

Absolutely agree with this. I seem to remember in 2010 there was a large degree of cross-model agreement running up to it. This is what us searching for the holy grail are looking for, what the models showed a few days ago was the holy grail in many respects but they were using different routes to cold. The current output are picking up on the same route to cold. This could be quite a fun few days of model watching.

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48 minutes ago, Bazray said:

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

Preferred it the way it was myself, it wasn't working the other way because a lot of forum members weren't bothering to follow the rules & I guess the mods got fed up of constantly moving non model related posts to the banter thread. 

So because of the way it is now I find myself having  to trawl through a load of crud posts to see what I want to see, model discussion & not much point telling me to go look at the other thread because I expect the majority, especially from those posters I'm most interested in reading what they have to say, will post in this thread although if I'm lucky they'll cross post into the other model discussion thread so I can go read it in there. 

If they had set this thread up so that banter was only allowed outside of those times when model runs are actively rolling out then it wouldn't be so bad but as it is right now this change imo is not a good one. 

Edited by Smartie
Damn predictive keyboard apps!

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3 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

ALICE?  who the **** is Alice?

Alice is my daughter. The one born in 1991. The one who has a birthday this thursday. Also the one, who made me jinx everything, when i told her i didnt want her going to london at the weekend because of the snow! Sorry . Not had chance to even look at models yet, but im hoping by the first comments ive just read, its not over yet.

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3 minutes ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Is it because they are slow at updating to the latest models or that there ‘data’ which we can’t view still shows an easterly.

It’s because the trough sinks and there has to be a nor’easter behind it .......we don’t know what mogreps is seeing but I don’t have a great deal of confidence in mogreps over the eps suite if there is a difference. 

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Just a reminder for next time, posts about the Met Office forecasts (unless it includes model discussion) ought to be in the Met Office outlook and/or Winter general chat and moans threads really. Cheers! 🙂

We don’t wanna ruin the atmosphere of this thread since it’s meant to be laid back, so anyone that does it again will get put in the cot for 50 minutes! 😛

 

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Just now, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a reminder for next time, posts about the Met Office forecasts (unless it includes model discussion) ought to be in the Met Office outlook and/or Winter general chat and moans threads really. Cheers! 🙂

We don’t wanna ruin the atmosphere of this thread since it’s meant to be laid back, so anyone that does it again will get put in the cot for 50 minutes! 😛

 

Noted 🙂

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2 hours ago, pureasthedriven said:

That’s a cluster and a half! 

 

Edited by aitchbomb
Wrong post quoted

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10 minutes ago, Smartie said:

Preferred it the way it was myself, it wasn't working the other way because a lot of forum members weren't bothering to follow the rules & I guess the mods got fed up of constantly moving non model related posts to the banter thread. 

So because of the way it is now I find myself having  to trawl through a load of crud posts to see what I want to see, model discussion & not much point telling me to go look at the other thread because I expect the majority, especially from those posters I'm most interested in reading what they have to say, will post in this thread although if I'm lucky they'll cross post into the other model discussion thread so I can go read it in there. 

If they had set this thread up so that banter was only allowed outside of those times when model runs are actively rolling out then it wouldn't be so bad but as it is right now this change imo is not a good one. 

But the other thread has serious model analysis. 

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Well I told folk at work thurs-friday there was a big freeze coming next week!!! I never learn but hopefully I can put some spin on it till feb-march-april .

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Euro4 looking good tomorrow night into Tuesday for many parts of Scotland, parts of Ireland and far NW of England. Temperatures and dew points falling quickly as the front moves through bringing heavy snow showers. Good news for Scotland’s ski resorts 🙂

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, it has now been updated and Exeter now sees the world like the modelling we can see (behind the curve isn’t a surprise) 

see the winter thread for the wording 

It covers all bases with potential for this and that but overall, the models so far today fill me with hope and indeed expectation that the best of this winter is still ahead of us although that wouldn't be difficult would it since there's barely been any winter yet!!!..I expect that to be changing and when Feb ends, coldies will have a warm glow remembering plenty of snow and freezing cold!!!😉👍:cold-emoji:

Edited by Frosty.

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I'm not quite sure if EURO4 gives tomorrow's possible snow event justice. It looks underwhelming for most and feel like we should see more snow on the back-edge of the front. Thickness look in and around the 528 dam mark. Dew-points marginal at around 0 or 1'c. 850hpa temperatures look between -5 and -6'c; -7'c across parts of East Midlands. 2m Temps look around 2'c I just cannot see how these parameters represent no snow potential along the back-edge of the front, I mean EURO4 shows no snow potential whatsoever for North England southwards.

Edited by Ben Sainsbury

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