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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I guess it’s for fun. We know that, but it’s a bit like when we dream of spending lottery winnings. And it is model related so is perfectly entitled to be in this thread.

I do agree with your comments in the main - wrt posting snow depth charts, but the ECM ones are so obviously falsified (Nick L has the real ones and they never correlate), so its not like you are hoping the pattern verifies - even if it does, you wont see that much snow, so its almost like planning to spend a billion pound if you win the lottery, as opposed to 8 million.

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Note the little lows popping up on the occlusion at T126 ...could get even more interesting ........

8B8A8504-4836-4F7C-9BFC-3DFC35DB640D.thumb.jpeg.a17ccc77285080fcb5f315f068af95b8.jpeg

I Still think midlands and wales shall be sweet spot!!

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I do agree with your comments in the main - wrt posting snow depth charts, but the ECM ones are so obviously falsified (Nick L has the real ones and they never correlate), so its not like you are hoping the pattern verifies - even if it does, you wont see that much snow, so its almost like planning to spend a billion pound if you win the lottery, as opposed to 8 million.

Any chart may or may not verify. I take all snow charts with a pinch of salt, but the point is that any member can post any model related chart, so let’s move on.

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Just going by the amount of precipitation you would expect to fall from a low of that depth I expect more snow than being shown on those depth charts. IMO 10cm around the sweet spot and widely 6-10cm around it. More snow is showing than expected for Thursday though 

344B394B-8B1B-4A2F-A887-A2213B9B5353.jpeg

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 wow what an evening cross model agreement for the up  coming  the snow event just getting a little excited now what’s more Villa won today 2 one so all in all it’s a good Saturday night those who will get the snow well enjoy your self 

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Hello, its been an eventful couple of days hasn't it?

12z swingometers for January 31st are now in almost full agreement that we will be in a rather cold/cold situation. A lot going on up until then we have some very windy weather tomorrow as well as some borderline sleet/snow up here. Tuesday looks fascinating though and given the ECM,GFS parallel and UKMO now show this low we have to be increasingly confident that a snow event is looming on the horizon though still a lot to resolve before we get there.

Then we have the low on Thursday which the GFS and ECM are in some agreement on. It's arrival is slower however whilst on the UKMO it is far weaker!. I would side with the GFS and ECM here as they both show the deeper low. Situations like this are very difficult to forecast though and sudden changes to the output may occur. Very little of the GFS ens support the UKMO so far but P8 for example is similar.

image.thumb.png.5cd475ab30a2d7ff5643ae98fb900f17.pngimage.thumb.png.20782bd271a7273e40771fdd18af9df4.png 

For early February things are still highly uncertain as we may expect and what happens early on with have a butterfly effect on later so I would expect further big swings, especially to colder solutions if later this week we are still in cold air. P1 has more lows bumping into cold air again.

image.thumb.png.0ee361ae9e147d3c43566dc178620086.png image.thumb.png.9bd8918093515b60a4acac3b99e74878.png

Next week we see a big cold pool leaving the US which means we will see some deep lows spawn off NE Canada (just look at the UKMO T144 for example). Hopefully any lows in the region can be sent to the west of Greenland to help build a block. Elsewhere good to see Australia getting a heatwave reprieve though the arctic looks to be turning a bit milder again.

image.thumb.png.fc9b37be0943edfd55fbf8fbdc58fe7f.png

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7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z clearly hasn't read the script for February!!:gathering:

12_336_mslp850.png

 

 

Don’t worry frosty that will all correct west as we get closer . That big purple blob will be over us . ?

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3 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 wow what an evening cross model agreement for the up  coming  the snow event just getting a little excited now what’s more Villa won today 2 one so all in all it’s a good Saturday night those who will get the snow well enjoy your self 

nice outlook. But... SOTV ??

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2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

nice outlook. But... SOTV ??

Couldn’t agree more KRO!! 

Anyway I wouldn’t pay to much attention to precipitation charts at this stage as they will swing in roundabouts constantly. Worry about that nearer the time.

what I do no though at this point is that next week is looking quite exciting 

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Moyenne time!

Never thought it would be worth posting a mean chart at T72, but here goes from ECM

image.thumb.jpg.ff0815bd98c90bd048d49e37b219f4c9.jpg

Looks like the channel is about the mid point of the uncertainty re the trajectory of the key low, and that's good.

Less good news on the potential storm T144

image.thumb.jpg.78af61a1f854601b639eec36418f5e8c.jpg

I think this might not happen, but the higher res op runs will decide that, I think.

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24 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Just going by the amount of precipitation you would expect to fall from a low of that depth I expect more snow than being shown on those depth charts. IMO 10cm around the sweet spot and widely 6-10cm around it. More snow is showing than expected for Thursday though 

344B394B-8B1B-4A2F-A887-A2213B9B5353.jpeg

Probably a fair assessment , people expecting " carnage"  wont get it from Tuesday's feature 

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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

Do you have corresponding 850hpa temps for the ECM Mean for that particular time?

Yes:

EDF0-72.thumb.gif.e9c338929a632cd07a99c0c030b3984e.gif

Both GEM and GEFS have the mean low at T72 in N France.

So no real clarity, though siding with the ops may be, at this range, the best guess?

1873708730_gens-21-1-72(2).thumb.png.eabc6e61267d3201679b97392bda2078.png752776830_gens-21-1-72(1).thumb.png.b71a66a79374f8974eb71b9628eb6774.png

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30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I dont..

And it maybe-an even [email protected] peripherals.

With the slaged'm4 and down..4 the 1st feature.

 

 

Northern france is the catch point now..

FWIW and let’s be honest it’s a punt but looking at the output I would like to be in the north Cotswolds. Stow on the wolds maybe. I think it’s more likely to be all snow.  Or  snowshill just down the road?

Edited by That ECM
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