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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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GFS P really is going for it.

image.thumb.png.a17c481add1bfdcb9ba034a3e631b464.png

These set ups are rare, but when they occur can really produce for Southern areas. This puts even the midlands/Wales into the picture.

There would be a transition to rain for a time across the far SW and Southern Coasts as there is a small warm sector (uppers reach near 0c just off the IOW). But wouldn't be too long before snowfall returns. Brilliant run and a good trend.

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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

GFSP has the low maybe 50 miles further south than on the previous run. Still snow for all of England and Wales.

I think its just a touch smaller/weaker than the 06z run, other than that its in an identical place more or less.

IF the 12z para would come off, somewhere on the downs would be getting a 1ft, I'm fairly sure of that.

Dean E, I don't know if you have lived in Chichester since at least 2010 but I went uni down there. I remember there was a kind of 'reverse' channel low on I think the 1/2nd of December which gave the area 8-9 inches of snowfall. I remember sticking a glass out there and the glass was gone in the morning. This looks like a similar but more classic version, at least on the GFSP.

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5 hours ago, snowbob said:

Quick question if it did pull away into France would that drag down colder uppers

Yes it would but the track needs to be SE not South -

SE allows for ENE winds where as a southerly track could be ESE winds

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Just now, kold weather said:

I think its just a touch smaller/weaker than the 06z run, other than that its in an identical place more or less.

IF the 12z para would come off, somewhere on the downs would be getting a 1ft, I'm fairly sure of that.

Northern extent of the precipitation field is slightly further south. That small shunt south would make things less marginal for the far south.

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What a complex and fascinating, yet extremely stressful time to be a weather enthusiast aye! Have to feel it’s a key ECM coming up, need to see it trend away from that dirge it put our this morning, but to be honest nothing will be resolved until tomorrow at the earliest, the smallest of shifts make a huge difference.

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GFS ensembles are ALOT weaker with Tuesday's low, most don't do anything with it on this run! They also nearly all dive it through France as well.

So the uncertainty continues, just as more global/high resolution jumps on board, the GFS ensembles jumps off!

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

You didn't hear about the snow dome?;)

If only it was built yet!  Ive seen numerous runs where it leaves out the exact same patch over the last few days!  madness! 

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Comparing the GFSP and UKMO, they have Tuesday's low tracking at a similar latitude. The UKMO ever so slightly further south and ever so slightly shallower. I imagine then that the UKMO too would bring precipitation (snow?) for most if not all of England and Wales.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

An initial hour or 2 of rain followed by a short transition then ~4-6 hours of snow...

Ireland should benefit either way Steve? The low pushing south draws in more cold air then we watch for sliders? Enough cold air out west to generate snow from the low moving through if further north?

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Thats better

Its out now - the P 84

F5AFB315-CDDC-499B-9AD0-7D214FF00D0F.thumb.png.e6580746ada53105c1267302c7ad7d21.png

What’s that backedge rain all about?edit  actually not there on the uk res

44FBA2BD-208D-4C65-861C-21160CD3A697.thumb.jpeg.1e8ed62c8082a7326d3c06b80db203cf.jpeg

Edited by chionomaniac
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Ok so some of the GFS ensembles instead focus the energy on a 2nd low which dives a little further to the south  into France. Others just lose it.

I'd say only 4/5 of the runs look like the UKMO/GFSP/GEM/ICON solution Looks like the GFs is having another one of its LP issues it occasionally has.

However as I said earlier, all options are on the table.

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