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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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26 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Happy with that. Sums up my earlier post nicely.

gensnh-21-1-276.png?6

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

Edited by SLEETY

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31 minutes ago, Number 23 said:

Second bite seems the form horse now.

I do agree with what an earlier poster mentioned, in that I'm more convinced that the second attempt will verify in some meaningful way. 

Anything after 4th of Feb is fine by me, as my son is due to be born today, and after last week's runs I had visions of sliding into the hospital sideways rather than driving.

Would be great to see a spell like '91 at around the same time, which remains my fondest memory of severe winter conditions. 

Congratulations buddy u must be so excited 

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2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

Only makes sense to me, when there's only one cluster...With two or more, the mean becomes nowt more than an arithmetic curiosity?

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6 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too ⛄

Yep, the coldest month in my lifetime. 🙂

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6 minutes ago, Bazray said:

With respect, the way it was before was not working, to many off topic posts and banter on a thread that was for serious model discussion, now at least you can chat in a more relaxed way about the models or go to the other if you want a more detailed serious chat. Good idea imo.

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it spoils the enjoyment! 

Edited by snowice

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13 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Winter is not over in January, does anyone not remember Feb 86 a foot of snow in Edinburgh from the east sticks in my mind,,,,I still see a very snowy February coming up which is still a winter month normally the coldest too ⛄

End of Feb last year up here as well (remember that red warning day when over 10 inches fell )

https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/2294601/beast-from-the-east-red-warning-scotland-rush-hour-met-office-storm-emma/

 

Edited by JoeShmoe

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10 minutes ago, Firefly2005 said:

I much prefer this style of thread as as a newcomer I found that I wasn’t able to contribute at all and it felt unwelcoming. This is much better in my opinion.

Yes same mate, I’m not really a newbie, but have no real idea about the technical aspects of meteorology. So felt unable to contribute also, not that I have much of interest to add, but still, this is a good idea.

Edited by Bazray

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3 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it splits the enjoyment! 

Just read both then simples

i do

Edited by snowbob

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5 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it splits the enjoyment! 

Well depends doesn’t it, is your comement on the weather / models detailed and technical or just a passing comment? 

Edited by Bazray

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1 minute ago, Bazray said:

Yes same mate, I’m not really a newbie, but have no real idea about the technical aspects of meteorology. So felt could unable to contribute also, not that I have much of interest to add, but still, this is a good idea.

Me too Boys so I'm. Glad we. Have somewhere to hang out... Can I join in

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9 minutes ago, snowice said:

I Get that, but only 3pages on model thread and over 20here.I Just think it means if cold weather is showing is it for  the forecasting model thread, or this one. I understand why it was done just think it spoils the enjoyment! 

I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for those with a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many)

Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so the split makes sense to me. 🙂

Edited by Steve C

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5 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Me too Boys so I'm. Glad we. Have somewhere to hang out... Can I join in

Anyway it’s all joyful and cheerful on here at the moment, we are on the upwards run of the rollercoaster ride, let’s see what happens when the next downwards slope appears. 😂

 

5A9BA449-5178-4471-B416-35B9DA5649CC.jpeg

Edited by Bazray

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1 minute ago, Steve C said:

I quite like the split tbh. At least this thread seems to be for a cold bias. I found the stick that people like IDO took for making cautionary and frankly balanced posts annoying (the evidence so far is that he's been closer to the mark than many)

Most people here in Winter seem to prefer the ramping style posts, so I think the split makes sense to me. 🙂

Couldnt agree more and having to wade through 3 pages of 'BOOM' or 'best chart in the internet age' or 'GFS all over the place' before getting to a post from someone respected with a balanced view across a whole run or suite was tedious

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17 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

That's not the actual chart though, it's just the mean of all the  runs put together. Never been a fan of means, could be miles out.thats 11 days away, 

 

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Only makes sense to me, when there's only one cluster...With two or more, the mean becomes nowt more than an arithmetic curiosity?

Means are only useful if you alsoview the spreads or clusters ....... it gives you a template from which to work ....... fwiw, this weeks diving trough was initially obvious from the mean/anoms ......

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3 hours ago, Johnp said:

Just think, this could be Navgem's finest hour.

All those years of mocking, coming bottom of verification stats, people asking why they bother etc.

This time next week when I'm knee deep in snow, I'll raise a glass to the mighty Navgem!

*Wakes up from dream*

Well Navgem, you were just teasing all along.

Alas, forever to be consigned to the shredder.

navgemeu-0-180_rrb8.png?67544

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5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NCEP have above average confidence in the pattern over the USA.

A strongly amplified east Pacific / West coast ridge and east ne American trough.

This downstream over us normally means a displaced Azores high and Euro troughing . It also means that the main PV will be kept further to the nw and the jet track se into Western Europe .

I think this is where the confidence in the pattern is stemming from. Totally different scenario to this failed easterly setup. Presuming it fails, which looks all but settled now. 

We were really up against it with hindsight, PV nowhere to go, Azores high to close by. 

 

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

Couldnt agree more and having to wade through 3 pages of 'BOOM' or 'best chart in the internet age' or 'GFS all over the place' before getting to a post from someone respected with a balanced view across a whole run or suite was tedious

YEAH but come on those charts this morning?? BOOM!

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7 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Congratulations buddy u must be so excited 

Thank you, I am indeed as it's our first! 

My wife keeps saying he's holding out for the snow lol. 

I'm actually more confident of a cold spell than I was on Friday; perhaps because I didn't want the cold during next week anyway! There's a definite sense of something brewing, at least to my untrained eye and others have explained this very well.

Much rather see the general theme get picked up and then upgrade from 120 onwards than show it's hand at 168-192+ as we know how that usually ends!

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morning all, well, just back from my half marathon training run and my legs are knackered, so i might just chill on the sofa for the afternoon and get ready for the ups and downs of todays model output and fingers crossed a snowy cold outlook is just around the corner.

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52 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Monday night into Tuesday morning is now within the hi-res models.

nmmgif.thumb.gif.9e65fd3ec57e55a0c32d7008e306e21c.gif

Plenty of shower activity moving in from the WNW/NW after the frontal system has moved through.

That looks like rain for se 

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