Cold hunt - models and chat

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

NOT if it falls as snow !!

Not likely with the low in that position.

[Weathizard]

Interesting run, not often you see lows going in that direction

[swfc]

In the meantime icon splits the vortex to the east, just saying like.sorry if I'm off topic!!

[Jackski4]

Just now, Djdazzle said:

Not likely with the low in that position.

With some snow cover, the right timing, and cold air in place, we have a shot

[IDO]

Interesting ICON NH profile at T180: 

 

Tuesday low:

 

 

 

[Jackski4]

ICON is a very good run for southern/SE England. Onto the GFS now! The fun continues 

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

With some snow cover, the right timing, and cold air in place, we have a shot

If you live on a mountain a chance.poor 850s and wind direction

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

In the meantime icon splits the vortex to the east, just saying like.sorry if I'm off topic!!

It’s the most notable part of the run for me  ......I was a bit surprised how few of the ops went that way post day 5/6 

[kold weather]

Very warm ICON on Thursday aloft, not even good enough for the Midlands on this run!

Highly likely a warm outlier, especially as the ECM was a warm outlier at the same time, and was cooler than the 12z ICON.

[Matthew.]

There’s a little feature Monday afternoon too across Yorkshire which bring snow early evening

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

ICON is a very good run for southern/SE England. Onto the GFS now! The fun continues 

It is?

the extent of the lying snow Wednesday am 

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

ICON is a very good run for southern/SE England. Onto the GFS now! The fun continues 

Really ? 

I found it underwhelming for the vast majority of the uk 

[SMU]

Yes ICON 180 AO is circa -4/-5

Another solid sliding run

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Winter Hill said:

Really ? 

I found it underwhelming for the vast majority of the uk 

I said for southern and se England

[MattStoke]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very warm ICON on Thursday aloft, not even good enough for the Midlands on this run!

Highly likely a warm outlier, especially as the ECM was a warm outlier at the same time, and was cooler than the 12z ICON.

Good enough for some of the Midlands 

[Chris101]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Interesting run, not often you see lows going in that direction

To all that are banging on off it goes into France, looks more like LP centre turns up the French Channel coast.

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Good enough for some of the Midlands 

I'm actually impressed given just how warm the uppers are at that point, must literally be close to 0C 850hpa, but the SE flow along the front probably is helping there at the surface level.

[Skullzrulerz]

Is the icon a good run for us south westerns?

[Weathizard]

This thread is going to get unbearable with the IMBYism in the next week or so isn’t it! Good luck to the mods everyone is likely to have a chance at some point, given the energy come from the Atlantic and lack of any block or blocking, I would think we should think ourselves lucky we have any shot at something wintery!

Edited January 26, 2019 by Weathizard

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It is?

the extent of the lying snow Wednesday am 

With the best will in the world, those are trash. It also didn't have anything for last Tuesday trough, not even snow...and indeed that was rather poor to say the least given what some people got. So don't take that verbatim is what I'd say based on previous experiences.

 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

To all that are banging on off it goes into France, looks more like LP centre turns up the French Channel coast.

That's not the low we are talking about going into France , it's the earlier one that was a channel low on the FV3 6z for Tuesday!

[IDO]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

I said for southern and se England

Yes, at this range, getting the right synoptic is more important than what the models say viz snow. 

Just need this to be consolidated going forward.

If the Tuesday low goes further north then snow for Midlands/north?

If it sinks towards Biscay, maybe more hope for Thursday's low to track more SE and we lose the snow?

Take your pick.

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is the icon a good run for us south westerns?

You'll see snow from the ICON12z run.

[MattStoke]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

That's not the low we are talking about going into France , it's the earlier one that was a channel low on the FV3 6z for Tuesday!

And was further north on the ICON 12z than on its 6z run, so not sure why some are commenting as if it was further south.

[swfc]

This low saga is becoming unbearable jee wizz !!!anyway good news from SM let's hope the models pick up and we get a break with heights going forward