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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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50 minutes ago, TomW said:

It was rain here all morning then turned to snow around midday but it never got heavy enough to settle on the ground as it was to wet

That's wrong. It wasn't too wet, it wasn't cold enough to settle. It can rain all day and then turn to snow if  cold enough ?

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2 minutes ago, Keyring said:

When people say the models look good for the north in here, does that include Scotland or is it northern England....

More likely the midlands, from Birmingham down.  

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3 minutes ago, Keyring said:

When people say the models look good for the north in here, does that include Scotland or is it northern England....

To a Londoner, north of the Watford Gap.

To a Geordie, north of Yorkshire.
 

?

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12 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Now that is one event that will stick long in my memory here in Leeds. Heavy persistent rain in the afternoon that at 5pm turned to heavy snow. And by 9pm we had 40cm!!! Cars abandoned everywhere. Now I laugh every time someone says ‘the snow won’t lay the grounds too wet’. Well on that day the ground was soaked but was covered in no time. Amazing. And just to add it was the day Cantona Kung fu kicked the palace fan

Mine was 1 of the cars. It wasnt forecast, meto forecast rain. The snow line was just south of the m62 and in Sheffield it rained all day I recall. Heaviest snow I've seen. 

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ECM ensembles disappointing on the face of it but good to see GFS 06z begin toying with some colder options in FI again (maybe continue the cold or just have a brief milder blip).as we head through the first week of Feb.

 ensemble-tt6-london.gif

I think we will start to see that mean come down again over the next few days but plenty of interesting weather to keep us occupied through next week as well as FI.

Most notably as to whether this channel low happens next week bringing snow to the South and then the track of the low which has been modelled for some time that could bring heavy prolonged snow for some around the turn of the month but as is often the case we are talking about a low that does not even exist yet exept in computer models so a lot can happen for the better or worse there.

Edited by Mucka
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8 minutes ago, Chris. said:

More likely the midlands, from Birmingham down.  

I'm more interested in the cold becoming entrenched and not being mixed out / diluted by milder intrusions..there's certainly a good chance of that, especially further north!

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26 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Yes with regards to this I think we’ll have to get to t48....and then there could be further slight shifts that could make a difference to snow chances.   I think as I mentioned yesterday the itv weather / metO gleefully forecasting 5c 6c and 7c for my location Wed, Thurs, Fri........we’ll see.  Last Thurs was 1c on my golf course....max.

 

BFTP

More like t6, I've seen a decent snow event for the far south implode with just 12 hours to go, that was the event that ended up with the channel Islands buried in snow with just the odd snow flurry in the wind here. 

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Hi Mucka, the ECM ensembles show again that the ECM operational is within the top 5-6 ensemble runs for the key time frame for the snow set-up. That's good to see as it suggests the ECM ensembles are now quite as far north with the milder air.

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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

I'm more interested in the cold becoming entrenched and not being mixed out / dilluted by milder intrusions..there's certainly a good chance of that, especially further north!

It’s much less marginal up here with regard to 850s and ground temps, yes. Through experience the worst place to be is where the charts show snow a few days out, it always moves. North, South, anywhere but staying put! A couple of sliders recently here had one shift to the North and one to tne South. It’s the expectation denied that kills you.

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2 minutes ago, Smartie said:

More like t6, I've seen a decent snow event for the far south implode with just 12 hours to go, that was the event that ended up with the channel Islands buried in snow with just the odd snow flurry in the wind here. 

So true. Remember well the Radio 4 evening forecast (95?) that said ‘if it’s not snowing where you are now, it soon will be.’ It was that nailed on. Woke up to nothing but miserable drizzle here in London. 

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6 minutes ago, Smartie said:

More like t6, I've seen a decent snow event for the far south implode with just 12 hours to go, that was the event that ended up with the channel Islands buried in snow with just the odd snow flurry in the wind here. 

Aye this one?

archives-2013-3-11-12-0.png

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Walked the dogs, been shopping, had a shower, and we're still two and a half hours away from the 12z's... What to do what to do..

 

Everything looking good in both fantasy land and semi-reliable.. It's gonna be a fun ride this afternoon. What I will say is even if things don't go well, no need to panic.. yet..

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1 hour ago, Spah1 said:

Can we just all agree that the track of the low next week will change every run so I don’t have to read every post saying ‘subject to change’ etc. 

People are scared to death to analyse a chart in the anticipation someone will tell them it may change on the next run. 

WE ALL KNOW IT WILL CHANGE RUN TO RUN. 

We don’t have to add that caveat to every dam post. 

No, the big crime is that you will be accused of IMBYISM, god forbid, worse that a witch hunt when that starts off on here. You will be accused of all sorts of despicable and selfish heresies and will just have to be fair to ALL areas of the UK and Ireland from now on. Shetland, the borders, don't forget Belfast now, Dublin, Cork, ahhh but Manchester is surrounded by hills to the north and west so will require special tender loving care, and then the Midlands. As we move into the south special attention will have to be given because two flakes of snow in London and everything comes to a stop and makes international headlines in the news of course. Have I forgotten anyone? Oh my, the Cornish, how could I leave the west country out, and Wales, somewhat milder and damp climate at times but can get a dumping every ten years or so, how about Newcastle? I give up!:olddoh:

You know the best thing to do is expect nothing next week, Sunday looks like mainly rain, Tuesday looks too far south and Thursday may end up blowing up too much and end up too far north. That way you wont be disappointed. And if your lucky enough to get a few inches or a dumping, it will be a lovely surprise for you! :yahoo:

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13 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I hope as many cash in as possible. I’m finding it difficult to get hugely excited at the moment because the pattern relies on the uppers coming in from the NW and maintaining the right mix of cold temps and dew points....and it is such a marginal situation away from high ground that certainty is impossible. We also continue to struggle to get any kind of blocking to the NE to act as a slider platform. 

Plenty of time to see things develop into a notable February, but the resilience of the westerly flow over the atlantic to the point where the Azores high is tending to remain in situ because it cannot get a foothold to the north has been a real eye opener. I continue to think that the pattern has to pop eventually and allow a much colder airmass to develop and give greater certainty to the precipitation forecast, but as we move through the last part of January and into our snowiest month historically the winter so far has flattered to deceive somewhat. We learned a lot from The Beast. We are learning a lot from 2018/19 too particularly perhaps in how to read ensemble means.

The jet stream needs to continue to edge south in this pattern if we are to end up with nationwide snow. Very very fine margins.

Thanks for that. I’m in that camp and am seeking only to be pleasantly surprised down here (Gatwick) this week. If I get a decent spell of frontal snow this week for a few hours, to watch and walk in for a bit, that’d be terrific. My weather watching instinct leads me to feel that pattern will ‘pop’ but too late in the season - and a below average and chilly spring favours almost no one. 

With Exeter still bullish though, I remain intrigued. Been said before, but their update this afternoon will be instructive. Will they hold the line?

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

You know the best thing to do is expect nothing next week, Sunday looks like mainly rain, Tuesday looks too far south and Thursday may end up blowing up too much and end up too far north. That way you wont be disappointed. And if your lucky enough to get a few inches or a dumping, it will be a lovely surprise for you! :yahoo:


This is way easier said than done. If the charts are looking good in your area in a reliable timeframe, good luck trying to convince yourself you'll see nothing. :unknw:

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