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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

    However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Another step towards ecm at 84 hours from gfs!!beginning to get some agreement here but on the flatter more milder scenario!!

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

    However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

    What differences are you seeing?

    It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

    In fact it looks a little better to me.

    Edited by Drifter
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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    Just now, Drifter said:

    What differences are you seeing?

    It looks very similar to the 00z up to 102.

    It’s certainly not a million miles away, we just really don’t want the low to deepen any further and as you could see it’s at least 5mb deeper this run which will lead to consequences later on.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Knife-edge stuff at 108, will the low keep separation and dive south.....?

    image.thumb.png.3d20eab5943bdbce3241ae2dd2165015.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    26 minutes ago, knocker said:

    What do you mean by dodgy blue?

    Compare it to the T96 knocks ..........of course it could be that this is the first day 3.5 fax in twenty years of looking at them where all the pressure centres are predicted to be in the same place as they were 12 hours earlier ..........but I doubt it .........

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    4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Unforutnately not going to be a good run for the south again I think. Should still be ok furrher north again.

    However very interesting evolution on this run, different again from anything else I've seen in a subtle way.

    It's a much better run for the North. South is very marginal. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    I'm still not convinced this system is going to be getting quite as strong as the models are expecting, sub 965mbs in this type of set-up with complex lows is somewhat on the unusual side. Although its not as extreme as the 00z ECM and whilst very low, its within the range of what is possible

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    If it’s lookIng marginal at this range, I wouldn’t be confident!

    There are so many things that need to come together.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Low down to 960mb now, ignoring snow chances for a minute, that's a serious winter storm.

    image.thumb.png.73fbe4a21a7a8521f5ab4f7eccc84aaa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    18 minutes ago, IDO said:

    GFS op gives a chance for back edge snow as the front slips south east during Sunday morning:

    27-779UK.thumb.gif.7775cda985a6e44361d24ca28a6c37d1.gif24-515UK.thumb.gif.c4b9138dc30da71f134dd447e6f43b5e.gif27-7UK.thumb.gif.7e80d367aeb6c9ca41ef70df821ad30b.gif

    Interesting it's been suggesting similar for a while. Do any of the other Hi Res precip models agree?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Heavy snow about to hit large swathes of England at 120.

    image.thumb.png.0fee5ed1945204c2f1eba381b78d2ed3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

    I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    00z models are chock-full of wintry potential..some of us could see a lot of snow!!??❄️❄️☃️❄️❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    That Low at day 5 is too deep and too far north - following the ECM I am afraid.  Still snow potential for many.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Heavy snow about to hit large swathes of England at 120.

    image.thumb.png.0fee5ed1945204c2f1eba381b78d2ed3.png

    Anyone  for level 3

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    1 minute ago, Singularity said:

    Regardless of what the models show, lows not managing to phase together is far more common in reality - something to keep in mind. Essentially the likes of the ECM 00z are advertising a very rare event that would be special but not for the right reasons down south unless you enjoy wet and windy conditions.

    I’ll remain sceptical if the deep single low outcomes until they’re within 48 hours range.

    Yeah that e/CM is pretty extreme, some ECM ensembles are even MORE extreme then that as well! some would be a legitimate damaging storm through wind.

    Anyway the GFS looking very good for the Midlands north. For the south, we could do with it being a touch further SE and also quite a lot weaker.

    We will see later on what the ensembles are saying this time round, each run has been subtly different.

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Some people very positive others saying the low is too blown up??

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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