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10 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Explain how? When there is no sign of mild? 4'c is not mild.

Jeez its not rocket science  - you watched 2 different bulletins. The mild quote was on the 9.55 nightly update on bbc news channel and the other was the 10.35 after the main news bulletin on bbc1. End of

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    I simply couldn't resist, para at T288, FI I know, I know, but would be great to get this set up in early February.:oldgrin:

    Goodnight all and sweet snowy dreams.

    gfseu-0-288.png

    gfseu-1-288.png

    gfseu-2-288.png

    gfseu-16-288.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    7 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    Half a meter... Not the best, but I guess it'll have to do ?

    Unfortunately these charts will change again and again, they depend so much upon where exactly the lows are positioned. All we can do is hope for the best and wait until we start seeing these snowfalls within 72h

    I will jinx the Edinbrough snow, having a weekend up there 15th feb. That garauntees no snow, I go away this weekend every year and evey year I miss the snow, montreal, oslo, prague, berlin, scottish highlands, new york, tallin, everyone snowless. They are playing kylie Minogue in the kitchen?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    GFSp is the perfect scenario. Loads of sliding lows with snow for everyone at some point ending with this ?

    FB6CC92A-4B9C-41CE-98E8-09770D9E4DB1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!!
  • Location: Haywards Heath, West Sussex
    13 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    I will jinx the Edinbrough snow, having a weekend up there 15th feb. That garauntees no snow, I go away this weekend every year and evey year I miss the snow, montreal, oslo, prague, berlin, scottish highlands, new york, tallin, everyone snowless. They are playing kylie Minogue in the kitchen?

    I should be so lucky? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

    All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

    PS- some of those ensemble members really do look crazy looking at the precip, as said earlier, the more snowy models would probably leave someone jackpotting 12 inches+. Of course, there is a risk the whole lot ends up too suppressed and the low on Tuesday doesn't form, llke the GFS OP, in which case only a small area of higher snow totals likely, indeed verbatim few go above a couple of cms

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

    All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

     

    00z suites..

    To diss-figure the current basis!!.

    And cean the LPS TO AN- advance-..with southward trajectory!..

    And squall-milder inserts out of the mix...and as per-my notion..

    Drop and grade..with allowed upper shouts..with a BIG leading edge snow machine.....

    We shall but see!!??

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    00z suites..

    To diss-figure the current basis!!.

    And cean the LPS TO AN- advance-..with southward trajectory!..

    And squall-milder inserts out of the mix...and as per-my notion..

    Drop and grade..with allowed upper shouts..with a BIG leading edge snow machine.....

    We shall but see!!??

    I have no idea what your on about at times, but mate, I hope your right in everything you say ;) 

    At least we've now gotten further than we got than with the failed easterly, at this point it was already game and set with that one.

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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    15 minutes ago, Nikkib74 said:

    I should be so lucky? 

    Nah the love song with Jason, its getting cool now, Nina Cherry. Another bottle just popped, reckon she’s gonna struggle taking our daughter to gymnastic tomorrow, onto house classics now, the partys getting started

    Edited by saintkip
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    Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
    17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    I have no idea what your on about at times, but mate, I hope your right in everything you say  

    At least we've now gotten further than we got than with the failed easterly, at this point it was already game and set with that one.

    What you gonna do when your back at work with all this kicking off mate

    lol

    your commentary may be slower 

     

    Edited by snowbob
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    Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands

    The runs will change by the morning again. So much uncertainty. I wouldn't be analysing them too much. Some snow about, but we all know that if a low slides it generally goes further south and in most cases misses us completely. I think it will be Sunday until we are sure about early next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    26 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    18z GFSP is ALOT closer to what the tropical forcing would be expecting for that time, especially compared with what the GFS/ECM are trying to do, as singularity has been stating on the other thread at times.

    All options firmly on the table. I'd still suggest that the deeper stronger low is more likely, but there has been movement back towards a more even mix. Still, don't be disappointed if the 00z move firmly back towards the larger low solution again. I suspect once the low has began the first processes of formation on Sundsay, we will have a much clearer idea. I did think we were getting there today this afternoon, but clearly the gFS suite and to some extent the ECM has thrown a grenade into that idea!

    PS- some of those ensemble members really do look crazy looking at the precip, as said earlier, the more snowy models would probably leave someone jackpotting 12 inches+. Of course, there is a risk the whole lot ends up too suppressed and the low on Tuesday doesn't form, llke the GFS OP, in which case only a small area of higher snow totals likely, indeed verbatim few go above a couple of cms

    Pert 9?

    gens-9-1-114.png  gens-9-2-114.png

    OR

     

    Maybe you're a Pert 11 kind of guy/gal.

    gens-11-1-126.pnggens-11-2-126.png

     

     

    Edited by Snowman.
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    I know it's late but here is a presie for ya,blocking at high lats mean -AO

    814day_03.thumb.gif.5bdff3eee4b874eaf52b480e14240449.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.0ac0b2fa08ab5ad6053914c8214514f6.gif

    Forecasted record braking AO at that this season

    something to ponder on as we move into Feb.

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    I

    I agree

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    I agree

    Hit the post before i posted

    soz.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

    Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

    Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

    image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

    Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

    Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

    image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

    Oh yes - and look up to the north east as well!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ICON looks a huge upgrade at 00z..

    Prolonging the cold out until early Feb and snow chances esp across the midlands/south..

    Would be lovely if UKMO follows that!!

    image.thumb.png.25780c8ad6d718b0590acd821b372526.png

    Yes off to a good start this morning but this in extremely complex trough so expecting plenty of variation - all cold variations would be nice.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    If you look at the ICON NH view as well the pressure patterns - they signify a very negative AO - which is driving that weak desire to progress The jet east-

    Lots of High potential for the next week

    Snow for many....

    E1DD407C-23B3-4C9A-992B-FB9E746EB3D2.thumb.png.81f4fccb67bba7dc486c816aa8d55685.png

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea

    Looks like the models have done another u-turn. The enthusiasm here now a far cry from yesterday afternoons disappointment!! 

     

    Not getting overly excited, but the closer we get with the models looking like this, the less chance they can keep changing. Things currently look very nice indeed.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Could the UKMO follow the plucky ICON today

    slider @120

    709FA664-2DAC-45BB-822A-4ABB8F9A84BA.thumb.png.bf7c4e7540cbdae7a61d49dd908e9e7a.png

     

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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