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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ICON does not look too good unfortunately 

EE8CF69D-2B73-42D7-8D75-CF5D159F6A3A.png

Think people are more focused on Tuesday and a potential scandi block forming..let's get to the stage where the low forms which will be sunday/monday before making assumptions through late next week ? More changes to come.

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3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Really? I disagree. They follow MetO output mostly.

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

gfs-2-102.png

gfs-2-108.png

gfs-2-114.png

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2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Broadly snow to the north, snow-rain to the south. But that line is kinda just a line in the sand, kind of a best guesstimate based on where things are right at the moment and there is plenty of scope still for large changes.

And what model data do you have to back up this forecast? The MET office are saying the complete opposite. I will go with them I think.

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We can see that the slowing of the Atlantic lows after D5 onwards why it is important to get embedded cold upper air in situ so we can keep a cold trough:

ICON T120-180anim_yuc6.gif  anim_hsb7.gif

The ICON really doesn't make it as good as we could...

 

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Just now, Stuie W said:

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

gfs-2-102.png

gfs-2-108.png

gfs-2-114.png

Yeah the GFSP output isn't as good, but MetO use ECM and UKMO and GFS as there primary until GFSP takes over - IF ever lol,

like MetO said, we won't know more until the low has actually formed in 3 days.

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4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

gfs-2-102.png

gfs-2-108.png

gfs-2-114.png

They have received that information from the Met office chief forecaster but by all means use a test version of the GFS to belittle them.

Edited by Johnp
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22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ICON does not look too good unfortunately 

EE8CF69D-2B73-42D7-8D75-CF5D159F6A3A.png

Doesn't look good for the South of England maybe, but still has plenty of snow opportunities North of the English Midlands into the North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Central Ireland.

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Hello, so just before the 12z's hit their stride, a brief update from moi.

It seems like next week is going to be on the cold side, more so earlier on next week but uncertainties about later. The key thing is how deep the lows become because as with the ECM, deep lows risk dislodging our cold air. Some snow events may occur, especially if lows disrupt but things are highly uncertain at the moment... a bit of a forecasters nightmare. Whether we get a very snowy spell or a mixed spell of weather is very much up in the air according to the swingometers. P7 gets it just right and leaves us well within the cold air.

image.thumb.png.c07bcff54e195d05e05914857880c32d.pngimage.thumb.png.23dff81a438d2c2e498920d685f37ad9.png 

Later on the swingometers are still uncertain at this point. No real clear signal is apparent. P7 still looks cold by Feb 5th.

image.thumb.png.6f893c2208f90729c86dbdf68e4d7af8.png image.thumb.png.1042f601f8c087a9b625429416883eeb.png

Globally things look interesting again. Warm air between Greenland and NE Canada and Greenland is good to see. Would also like that cold building east to head our way please.

image.thumb.png.dfb0b7f5d6f48567e105db64a349372e.png

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8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look good for the South of England maybe, but still has plenty of snow opportunities North of the English Midlands into the North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Central Ireland.

Does Wales not exist anymore? ?

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