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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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There's some potential at day 10 though in this Winter of manyana manyana. 

At least those reservoirs will get topped up after the long dry spell. 

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We could all look at.it the other way

model runs can only get better now

instead of waiting for downgrades later

still think we will be rewarded in the middle to end of feb !

Edited by snowbob

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I am throwing in the towel now. It's just not going to happen this winter. Let's hope our fortunes are better next winter. 

This early? My word. It must be like we’ve never been in this position before.

we knew models will chop and change, I’m certainly not making any forecast or prediction until Sunday - once we get past the milder blip, then we start hunting again. 

Less of the negativity.

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Is this mornings output surprising? No off course not it’s been that sort of winter and while it’s not over yet I can’t help but think the chances of a completely snowless winter down here on the south coast are increasing. 

I feel like a whole pattern reset is required if we are to get anything cold and snowy, to be honest though I’m already thinking about spring and summer!

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Never guess where the vortex looks like it’s reorganising 😂Couldn’t make it up.

BAD7B1B8-E262-441B-99E8-AF431D704C58.png

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If anyone is looking at the models overnight runs as gospel then you’re deluded and I’m quite disappointed.. yes, you may be “calling” as you see it, but end of the day - we’ve been here numerous times this winter, Yes.. it hasn’t always gone our way, but who is saying it won’t this time? 

My opinion plenty of chances to come throughout next week and Feb.. 

Stop worrying over one set of bad overnight runs. It’s kinda embarrassing if you ask me.

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This forum never fails to amaze me, yesterday each model brought a variation on a theme but looked cold and snowy. Then another 💩 run leaves a few posters declaring winter is over, it’s one run people! For things to be changing so frequently and so close then something must be seriously up!

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Just now, warrenb said:

Seems like a few people need a reset and not the models. The models were cold yesterday mild the day before and then mild again today. Stop hanging on every run

Thank you🙄👍🏻

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On the plus side...we can go to work with the knowledge that this evenings runs WILL be upgrades! They cant get any worse...that has to be one of the worst ecm runs of the winter mid to long term, by the end even Scandinavia has positive figure uppers!

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No offence but the people moaning about people moaning is more annoying than the moaning itself, can’t tell you how many times you over the years this has happened, false hope and let downs, you can understand people’s frustrstions, particularly this winter that has promised a lot and delivered zilch to most.

It’s the hope that kills you, A plague upon your houses weather models.

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Just now, Weathizard said:

No offence but the people moaning about people moaning is more annoying than the moaning itself, can’t tell you how many times you over the years this has happened, false hope and let downs, you can understand people’s frustrstions, particularly this winter that has promised a lot and delivered zilch to most.

It’s the hope that kills you, A plague upon your houses weather models.

It’s not the point - people claiming that winter is over just because of one set of overnight runs is embarrassing. The amount of changes we will still go through before anything comes off it’s still very much there. 

 

Its negatitiy i dont like and it it seems to be spreading.

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Once again though it shows why the GFS, GEFS and ens means,  posting great individual GEFS members and taking any notice of the Ec46 is simply pointless. 

Stick with the ECM ops and Met medium range forecasts and we wouldnt be far wrong.

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In all fairness nothing has gone our way this winter, why start now?

Now you've got total agreement between the so called big 3, I'd suggest that it's probably game over. Indeed this is uncannily like how last week's failed easterly manifested itself.

They all aren't going to wrong with the low phasungveithin 96hrs unfortunately.

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1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

No offence but the people moaning about people moaning is more annoying than the moaning itself.

But those moaning about the people moaning about the people moaning, well....this place is like the worst comedy club ever, since this thread was born. V sad indeed.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Once again though it shows why the GFS, GEFS and ens means,  posting great individual GEFS members and taking any notice of the Ec46 is simply pointless. 

Stick with the ECM ops and Met medium range forecasts and we wouldnt be far wrong.

I think what was telling was the ECM ensembles jumping ship last night, that was never a good sign.

We seriously have been unlucky this winter.

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Just now, Updated_Weather said:

It’s not the point - people claiming that winter is over just because of one set of overnight runs is embarrassing. The amount of changes we will still go through before anything comes off it’s still very much there. 

 

Its negatitiy i dont like and it it seems to be spreading.

 

In fairness the ECM has been turd since yesterday morning, even the EPS last night were particularly poor for cold hence they weren’t posted... usually a good indication on here. I agree winters over posts are over dramatic but this is an Internet forum, comes with the territory, especially for people from snow starved areas who are coming down with a case of Snowitis, a medium level of insanity and rage bought on by lack of snow 🙂

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Atrocious models all round this morning!!am tired of this day 10 business aswell!!!never happens!!ec46 so far has been pretty much a failure and the joke is still going for northern heights on yesterdays update lol!!just to put this winter into perspective i had more snow in the winters of 2014/15 2015/16 than i have had this winter and those winters were bad for cold!!this winter i have managed 10 mins of snow which hardly settled!!!

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more swings than a playground!

FI seems to be about T48 - wonder what the rest of the runs will bring today????

up down up down up down - its certainly not boring !!!

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Well those ECM snow depth charts suggest the ECM was a snow event for much of England around Wednesday . Purples in the south west and Midlands 

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So the colder spell from Sunday to Tuesday is still on with the possibility of snow showers from the north west.

like the failed easterly the longer term output has changed in line with the ensemble guidance,

just a case now to enjoy the continuous pattern of diving lows bring PM shots that will deliver the colder than average outlook as promised by extended models there will be no high level blocking this should be obvious now.

 

 

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Yes Kev the ECM does throw a low in our direction. Ukmo has the same low but too far south.

May be wise to give it one more cycle before calling it dead however, looking at the situation there may still be some fluidity for adjustments.

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In a winter that saw continuous grass growth for many, I can’t see anything but an early arrival of Spring going forward judging by Ecm’s prediction for Feb 4th. Just look at those ghastly heights to the southwest which have basically been the story of winter ‘18/‘19.Tick tock, tick tock!!! 🤮

468F1D58-7E70-46E0-BEAB-D725762D9EAA.jpeg

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