Cold hunt - models and chat

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re a mountain goat the ECM is average fair day 6 onwards and nothing special .

The rounded low before hand lifts the cold out from the east and ne and even though the day ten tries to repair some of the damage it could have looked so much better with a shallower feature moving se and developing low pressure over southern Europe.

 

Yeh pretty much all.over at 168 hours!!funnily enough we know want gfs to be correct!!dont even want the ukmo now after this ecm!!

[Frosty.]

Much better than the way last night's Ecm 12z ended!...variations on a cold theme beats the hell out of sw'ly zephyrs!

[northwestsnow]

EC snow depth charts reveal det is an absolute snow fest midlands north...

If it corrects south over the next day or 2 then the carnage moves south...

Dont want any corrections north for sure.

[snowice]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re a mountain goat the ECM is average fair day 6 onwards and nothing special .

The rounded low before hand lifts the cold out from the east and ne and even though the day ten tries to repair some of the damage it could have looked so much better with a shallower feature moving se and developing low pressure over southern Europe.

 

U got to be kidding

[markw2680]

32 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very good 144hrs, though probably would signal rain after a brief snow front edge for the south. Still the MAIN thing is getting the pattern in and its a very good sign from the ECM.

I'll gladly take it at this stage.

Ridge coming in behind the low should help to slow the PV over Canada down a little as well and keep the LP on its way ESE.

If it’s rain with this kind of cold then there is something really quite strange going on!

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re a mountain goat the ECM is average fair day 6 onwards and nothing special .

The rounded low before hand lifts the cold out from the east and ne and even though the day ten tries to repair some of the damage it could have looked so much better with a shallower feature moving se and developing low pressure over southern Europe.

 

Raw data suggests otherwise Nick..

Must admit i was shocked myself.

N midlands north is hammered with snow..

[tight isobar]

17 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

bathed in -6 uppers does not a country wide snow event make !!

 

 

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless you’re a mountain goat the ECM is average fair day 6 onwards and nothing special .

The rounded low before hand lifts the cold out from the east and ne and even though the day ten tries to repair some of the damage it could have looked so much better with a shallower feature moving se and developing low pressure over southern Europe.

 

I agree nick..although given the divergance...via the raw 12z sets.

Highlights the KEEP WATCH FOR SUDDEN CHANGE IN FORMATS..

And we know with given current synoptics..that is a high possibility!!

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh pretty much all.over at 168 hours!!funnily enough we know want gfs to be correct!!dont even want the ukmo now after this ecm!!

Yes game over at that stage . A filling low over the UK isn’t going to cut it .

We need a shallow feature which runs se and clears the UK.  That’s crucial . 

[Djdazzle]

Nothing but rain from the ECM in the south, useless.

Still waiting for signs of this freezing Feb! Seeing very little at the moment unless slightly colder than average floats your boat.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yes game over at that stage . A filling low over the UK isn’t going to cut it .

We need a shallow feature which runs se and clears the UK.  That’s crucial . 

Could be an outlier anyway!!!fingers crossed!!!i want gfs to be right all day long now!!

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Raw data suggests otherwise Nick..

Must admit i was shocked myself.

N midlands north is hammered with snow..

Don’t believe those snow depths . This set up looks wrong to deliver much away from much higher ground . Still time for changes but we need rid of that deeper round low .

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Indeed. 

Only if you were stupid enough to believe charts that haven't verified for months AND rarely, if ever actually do though. 

Painstaking again in here tonight. 

Exactly...

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow depth charts reveal det is an absolute snow fest midlands north...

If it corrects south over the next day or 2 then the carnage moves south...

Dont want any corrections north for sure.

I think folk will be surprised at the fact this isn’t a ‘north’ event.  There’ll be some very nice surprises and Atlantic west UK  May be disappointed...

 

BFTP

[markw2680]

Why are we so obsessed with what’s happening really late in a run when small changes early on that happen all the time will make the end of runs irrelevant, we all know this but still keep looking into deep fi and saying game over etc etc. It’s going to turn cold again after the blip anything after that really dosnt matter atm

[Badgers01]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

If it’s rain with this kind of cold then there is something really quite strange going on!

but it really isn't that cold uppers are -6 which is pretty marginal if its maritime sourced which it is ...

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nothing but rain from the ECM in the south, useless.

Still waiting for signs of this freezing Feb! Seeing very little at the moment unless slightly colder than average floats your boat.

It's a good job Day 10 is only 3rd February then. Still a good 25 days to get the freezer in!

 

I think if this did happen it could spring a few surprises

Edited January 24, 2019 by StretfordEnd1996

[MidnightSnow]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Could be an outlier anyway!!!fingers crossed!!!i want gfs to be right all day long now!!

Is this your keyboard? 

 

I'm only messing, I couldn't resist 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

17 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would rather have the short term upgrades than chasing rainbows at day 10. Snow cover by Tuesday on ECM 

You’ve omitted Gatwick...Bin it

 

BFTP

[Bristawl Si]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Would rather have the short term upgrades than chasing rainbows at day 10. Snow cover by Tuesday on ECM 

I think those ECM snow cover charts have been proved absolute bunkum over last few years. Ignore.

[blizzard81]

Model watching is akin to pulling teeth this winter. Ecm only seems to be wrong when forecasting winter nirvana. 

[Chesil View]

At the moment any past 120/144 is very FI indeed. Remember the easterly chart from days7-10 from a week ago. The current 7-10 day charts have about the same chance of being right on the money. 

[sausage]

the midlands north is not hammered with snow on the exm at all! pennines n scotland yes. it amazes me how once agaim (cast ur eyes back to last sat) how the icon picks out changes before any other model that the ecm then follows. tonight is the identical of last thurs! gfs ukmo being great apart from icon n then the ecm follows!

is the icon really trumping the met office so much and every other model/background sognal. i dont knw wht charts the met office look at but maybe thy need a revamp n buy out icons status because atm yet again its fireing on all cyclinders.

this really is last chance saloon.the sun is strong now. why we cant just have troughs to the south od us as per gfs n ec 46 meto etc i dont know.

but like STEVE MURR said i gave up last sat so as frustaratimg as it is, it is just sods law n typical wwhen it comes to snow n cold here!!

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

It's a good job Day 10 is only 3rd February then. Still a good 25 days to get he freezer in!

 

I think if this did happen it could spring a few surprises

As ever, we will see! I still think that deep cold in Feb is 50:50.

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Nothing but rain from the ECM in the south, useless.

Still waiting for signs of this freezing Feb! Seeing very little at the moment unless slightly colder than average floats your boat.

Well in all fairness there is another trough that runs along the south a bit like Tuesday, but looks abit more favourable with regards to timings, etc. Well worth a watch as it looks quite active again.

Sausage, got to give it at least another 2 suites that stay the same before getting too concerned!

If it doesn't change then I will be pointing out the flaws big style, but for now give it time.

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC snow depth charts reveal det is an absolute snow fest midlands north...

If it corrects south over the next day or 2 then the carnage moves south...

Dont want any corrections north for sure.

Not sure what you’re seeing, here we are at T+138 southern England gets its snow at least

and T+240 big depths for hills/mountains of north Wales, Lake District and Scottish uplands nothing that unsual but definitely very different to first half of winter.

Edited January 24, 2019 by Daniel*