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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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18 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Control run is a edge bit further south on this run, which brings more of the south into a pure snow set-up rather than snow-rain like the operational run.

We probably won't have a more solid grip on that low track though until 96hrs out, and even then could be quite sizeable differences right down to 12hrs out...so we have an awful long way to watch it and it could still very easily trend way too far north...or much further south.

Spot on  Kold  so much can change and best to wait on 96 like you said . 

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2 minutes ago, offerman said:

Just be careful and don't get too excited . 

Yes the charts look pretty good. But look how good the easterlies gained traction to the build up of snowmageden then bang all gone and disappointment. 

It could all go bang again and disappointment and of course  The scenario I am hoping for is that this time the charts don't keep flip-flopping and to deliver us some cold and snow . 

 Just don't get too excited only for then or how to break lose on the thread . 

 Best way will be to wait two or three days until the event . 4-10 days away it's just too much really   To be too excited about  with confidence. 

 Not even the professionals and supercomputers can call that right and that somebody posted on here I think it was yesterday look how many times cold weather gets pronged at 4-10 days and then taken away .

 

 

 

If it goes tights up this time then it's game over lol

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4 minutes ago, offerman said:

so much can change and best to wait on 96 like you said . 

Agreed but we can certainly enjoy the p p p p..potential!!.. and background signals etc..😉👍:cold:..stunning 6z for sure..love 💘it

Edited by Frosty.

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11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

No idea if any pedants our there corrected the detail Kold but you need to multiply the slp by 0.87 (rather than 1) to give you the actual number to subtract/add from the heights 

Ah yes, its not being pedant because that extra difference above or below say 15mbs from 1000mbs probably does add up a fair amount! I think my 1mbs was just a lazy guide I used back in the day, but 0.87 is correct.

With my grounded (critical?!) hat on, even the milder less enticing ensemble runs still have a pretty solid snow-rain event for all areas bar maybe for the far SW. So that is positive.

Still a small chance of something on the backedge of the low on Sunday, but that seems small right now away from Scotland, where odds look decent enough.

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 The JMa seasonal model update from gabs weather vids  

 

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Just Starting to get a late Jan / Feb 1978 feel about things with the ways things are progged ATM.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard

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Just for fun at that range  but the ensembles do paint a cold picture right to the end with the -15  nearly breached 

image.thumb.png.5c070d260dc9a942950c9b69a50272e0.png

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Very good 6z runs  and with the Para  bringing in a very cold north easterly wind in Fi  its all looking good

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Well the para is certainly throwing out some odd looking solutions and is kinda out of sync with the GFS suite in some ways in that it brings down several very flabby area of LP with no frontal activity on any of them (which in itself seems very improbable?!) but it remains nice and cold and the flow turns NE effortlessly on this run.

Seems highly unrealistic to me though in how it handles that LP, surely you'd get at least one active front come down?

A good run though for sure...

EDIT- even in America it looks unrealistic with its LP pattern. Think unfortunately that maybe for the bin this run...highly unrealistic pressure distribution!

Edited by kold weather

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24 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS mean MILES better than the 00z mean at day 9

image.thumb.png.8e3c3019933e2ea0c7231a9523377d3d.png

Looks very ec46👀

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What do people think these charts will deliver probability wise . To me it doesn't look

like deep cold for next week, cold yes, but cold e laugh for powder I'm not so sure.

wet snow ? 

powder snow ? 

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1 minute ago, offerman said:

What do people think these charts will deliver probability wise . To me it doesn't look

like deep cold for next week, cold yes, but cold e laugh for powder I'm not so sure.

wet snow ? 

powder snow ? 

Deep snow ⛄🤣🤣😮😮

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6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Very good 6z runs  and with the Para  bringing in a very cold north easterly wind in Fi  its all looking good

Yeah, definitely a cold run, just doesn't look quite right to me with these flabby lows, especially with the jet still being quite strong, I'd be stunned if we didn't form a decent low on either of those LP circulations that work down SE over the UK on that run.

Equally, those ensemble members that go down to like 960mbs for that low also look overblown.

EDIT- para has a complete 180 on the global pressure distrubtion by 300hrs as well over E.Canada!

Edited by kold weather

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1 minute ago, offerman said:

What do people think these charts will deliver probability wise . To me it doesn't look

like deep cold for next week, cold yes, but cold e laugh for powder I'm not so sure.

wet snow ? 

powder snow ? 

Temps next week cold enough for snow but generally early on not the dry powdery snow.temps 850s ete don't look cold enough at sea level imo

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Para looks messy in week 2 but I think it could well end up like this for a period as the Canadian continues to feed the jet and the scrussian ridge attempts to back west ....

just as an aside, wasn’t it last Thursday that all the modelling pointed to wintry nirvana back end of this week ....... just saying .......

Edited by bluearmy

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1 minute ago, offerman said:

What do people think these charts will deliver probability wise . To me it doesn't look

like deep cold for next week, cold yes, but cold e laugh for powder I'm not so sure.

wet snow ? 

powder snow ? 

Certainly will not be powder snow.  usually that is minus double digit uppers from the east    useless stuff for making a snowman   i expect it will be a typical snow with large flakes and hopefully quick accum

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the para is certainly throwing out some odd looking solutions and is kinda out of sync with the GFS suite in some ways in that it brings down several very flabby area of LP with no frontal activity on any of them (which in itself seems very improbable?!) but it remains nice and cold and the flow turns NE effortlessly on this run.

Seems highly unrealistic to me though in how it handles that LP, surely you'd get at least one active front come down?

A good run though for sure...

EDIT- even in America it looks unrealistic with its LP pattern. Think unfortunately that maybe for the bin this run...highly unrealistic pressure distribution!

Para i'm afraid is just as bad as its sibling IMHO-

Generally it will follow EC/UKMO in a fluid set up- and this setup is fluid ... 

Of course UKMO picked up the cold baton yesterday evening and the others have followed this morning..

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1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Went to Finland about 5 years ago and there was below -30 uppers, didn’t feel that much colder to be honest I think once you get to a certain cold level you feel numb to it, was -22 at midday so rather chilly 😂 

Was is Kusamo in N Finland a few years ago and it was -36 C. Looking out it could  have been -1 C as there was little hoar frost as the air was so dry. A local lady was out walking her dog !

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5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Para looks messy in week 2 but I think it could well end up like this for a period as the Canadian continues to feed the jet and the scrussian ridge attempts to back west ....

just as an aside, wasn’t it last Thursday that all the modelling pointed to wintry nirvana back end of this week ....... just saying .......

The general pattern is certainly interesting, despite some very odd pressure distrubtions over our neck of the woods between 144-216hrs (I'd be stunned if it all remains that flabby!) however the trend upstream is good and we finally relocate that PV.

Also yes the models did show that beasterly for now pretty much, I suppose in a funny sort of way we have still ended up in a broadly cool/cold pattern, despite the models originally resetting into an Azores led pattern that hasn't really proved to be the case.

Also the big difference is we have realistic snowfall opportunities before 144hrs...and we have near total model agreement on at least something being close to the mark, we couldn't even get run-run consistency from any model with that easterly, it always was 50-50 more or less (bar maybe the 12z suite on Thursday?)

Edited by kold weather

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Certainly will not be powder snow.  usually that is minus double digit uppers from the east    useless stuff for making a snowman   i expect it will be a typical snow with large flakes and hopefully quick accum

Why do people prefer powder snow more than wet snow/larger snowflakes most of the time? What are the main differences between them? 

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