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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Bed time for me again. Some sobering runs this evening, but I'm going to stay on the positive side for now at least and say that tomorrow mornings runs are going to be a lot better. It's an emotional rollercoaster, things looked great this morning less so this evening. Every run is different right now. Keep the faith..

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Decent run for the NW again from the 18z, and at least its not a total mildfest. Also some decent snow coming in from the breakdown around 156hrs as well for most of us, even if it is only a brief quickfire 2-4cms before lots of rain.

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2 minutes ago, sausage said:

thy will hav egg on facrs for many a year to come!!

We need a Steve murr sausage shaped high to save our bacon!..maybe tomorrow's models will show that...??...model fatigue has got the better of me..will try again tomoz! ?:drinks:

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I suggest we stop looking into the distance and instead at the back of this weekend and into the middle of next week ......Monday’s new FAX chart has an occlusion moving across in sub 528 dam ....

may not take much for it to negatively tilt and slide along the flow come verification  .......

Agreed, I really don't think there's much point looking past the next 6/7 days given how much the models like the change their minds 

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9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I suggest we stop looking into the distance and instead at the back of this weekend and into the middle of next week ......Monday’s new FAX chart has an occlusion moving across in sub 528 dam ....

may not take much for it to negatively tilt and slide along the flow come verification  .......

GFS suggests pure rain for nearly all and I tend to agree, it doesn't look quite cold enough for on there.

It maybe the case that its lifting up the temperatures/dew points too rapidly, though there is a noteable warm sector with it and 850hpa temps probably the wrong side of marginal for most bar maybe the far north.

ICON does go with a front edge snow event, and it lasts longer the further north you are. Major difference appears to be timing, GFS comes through in the daytime = rain, the ICON at night, and brings in more of a wintry mix.

I'm betting I'm still snowless though this time next week if the charts remain as they are.

PS - if the 18z is right, our chances of getting the long hoped for sustained cold are near enough 0 for the first half of Feb...

Edited by kold weather
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Just posted the JMA on the other thread, worth keeping an eye on this evolution, certainly not out of the question.?

 

Still no where near any consistency in the models for further comment, it will be all change again tomorrow no doubt.

JE216-21.gif

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JE264-7.gif

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11 minutes ago, Paul said:

Folks, chill out a tad with the banter please, it's all well and good having the odd joke, but when someone says something bantery, is there really a need for 10 virtually identical attempts at the same joke? It just sends the thread way away from the models.

There's a balance to be had here, so lets try to remember what the main point of the thread is.

Hi Paul,

 

isnt that the definition of bants? Or top bants even?  Isn’t that why there’s a focussed model discussion thread and then this one to provide a safe space for weather AND bants? Given the dire downturn in output I feel that bants is an important coping mechanism for those of us who’s lives are preoccupied with chasing snow for 3 -5 months of the year!

 

?

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4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Purple headed yougart slinger not budging this run needs hit with a heat seeking moisture missile launcher GP style.?

gfsnh-0-300.png

I remember the gp missile 

he hasn’t posted in a while though

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I suggest we stop looking into the distance and instead at the back of this weekend and into the middle of next week ......Monday’s new FAX chart has an occlusion moving across in sub 528 dam ....

may not take much for it to negatively tilt and slide along the flow come verification  .......

I honestly don't do it to annoy people, a couple of inches of slush just doesn't float my boat anymore, granted i would take it over warm weather all day, all year, but proper events are the things that give me a buzz.

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I was kind of hoping deep FI would throw up something for the photo gallery but even that's a disappointment;

image.thumb.png.cfd2b110f582919f67482bcdc432a651.png

 

A little disheartened with what I've seen today that's for sure. Following on from what was a promising 06z run around 12 hours ago it's been a bit lacking in interest in my point of view.

Yes I understand all this spells significant 'inconsistency' within the output - this has been well documented in the last few weeks but I find it hard to 'look' to model inconsistency as a source of comfort because what notable cold has inconsistency given us in the last month? Very little that's for sure.

It's no doubt a few of us really are looking on the dark side and some of us are looking on the light side. I really want to look on the light side and think something amazing is going to crop up in out of no where. I know that this is a possibility but it just doesn't work like that for our shores. We just need stonewall consistent evidence that a notable cold spell may be making inroads. 

Background signals and a whole host of other factors may look great but there are also some that don't look too good either. Anyway, I'm not moaning - I actually can't wait for the GEFS and then the overnight runs - we just got to all keep at it and sometime if the weather gods are with us something good will happen. And that doesn't even have to be in the next few weeks in theory .. time wise it doesn't have to happen for another month yet (i.e. 2018). 

Don't want to post this without any degree of at least some eye candy so here's a random pick of today's collection.. we can all dream? 

image.thumb.png.9db60242f7014ae14d1f5d6b1309b5cd.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

I honestly don't do it to annoy people, a couple of inches of slush just doesn't float my boat anymore, granted i would take it over warm weather all day, all year, but proper events are the things that give me a buzz.

Agreed we have time yet 

just ......

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I honestly don't do it to annoy people, a couple of inches of slush just doesn't float my boat anymore, granted i would take it over warm weather all day, all year, but proper events are the things that give me a buzz.

I just want one snow flake...this isn't the type of pattern that is going to deliver it for me.

It IS the type of pattern though that could see marginal events crop up at short notice, especially for those further north..I'll just have to stew and get jealous down here instead! I'd love for a NW to break its duck...but 20 years that I can remember the weather, and the NW flow has never delivered so much as a snow flake....

Edited by kold weather
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I honestly don't do it to annoy people, a couple of inches of slush just doesn't float my boat anymore, granted i would take it over warm weather all day, all year, but proper events are the things that give me a buzz.

Feel your angst, Feb. And this side of winter, proper snow and cold or unseasonably warm please. Personally have zero interest in marginal events and cold rain. That 18z GFS is a whole lot of cold rain. Nah. 

Whilst Exeter remains on message (albeit they too have the classic ten day virus), I’ll remain optimistic and expect the 18z not to verify as is beyond the weekend. 

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During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather. 

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2 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather. 

To be fair, they were wrong in December so they could equally be wrong now. 

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10 minutes ago, Paul said:

It's models and banter (with the emphasis on models, this being a weather forum n all), so if the banter takes over, it ceases to be that. Just asking people to self-moderate a tad here, that's all..

Edited my post a couple of hours ago and come out with ?. Didn't work. Edited by

LET THE MODERATORS DO THE MODERATING.

@Mapantz 

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4 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

During mid December, I attended an emergency planning meeting at my work and the contingency planners were pretty confident of a cold January and February. So much so, the local authority ordered 25% more rock salt. However, at the same meeting today, they were much less bullish than before Christmas. The *risk* is there on the longer term models, but they are now less confident of a very cold February and said it may just turn out to be pretty standard winter weather. 

Yea I know the feeling, I ordered about 25% more gin in preparation, but it’s ok, unlike the rock salt, the gin may be quite useful to drown the sorrows. 

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15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I suggest we stop looking into the distance and instead at the back of this weekend and into the middle of next week ......Monday’s new FAX chart has an occlusion moving across in sub 528 dam ....

may not take much for it to negatively tilt and slide along the flow come verification  .......

Yes would take those synoptics, much more might be In jeopardy but we are all in the ball game...await upgrades...

 

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If there was a guide to the model output that works best this winter it is as follows:

1) Don't get your hopes up over potential easterlies

2) Even if there is strong signs of a good cold spell on the way, pick the mildest possible ens member and that will probably verify.

3) Rinse and repeat.

Some cold runs still in the ens but you can't help but think we will just get more lows firing up to our NW due to NE Canada cold pools spilling into the Atlantic.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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