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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line. 

fax96s (2).gif

fax72s (2).gif

Yes. Following the way winter is going.

As long as the Canadian vortex is stuck there feeding low thicknesses to our w/nw we're stuck in this rut imo.

Just cant see where any big seperation up that way is coming from.

Edited by joggs

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8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah there are probably 3 decent snow events before the whole thing goes wrong, in that regrard the shorter range is quite a decent upgrade compared to the 00z.

Maybe it might be best to forget about that cold northerly that was previously forecasted and just focus on the nearer time which has got some potential, if marginal, snow events. We may miss something right in front of us whilst trying to reach for the impossible?

Considering that's more than we get most winters, I'd say it's a good run.

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17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line. 

fax96s (2).gif

fax72s (2).gif

correct although probably would see northerly follow soon after.....however it goes to show that even at T72 to 96 hours things are changing and evolving every run....and another reason why peeps should not be calling winters over because of a poor chart at 192 or 384 hours when the charts will look different again tomorrow even in much shorter range .. ...for better or for worse 

Edited by Bottled Snow

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28 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Oh no....ECM 216 shows MILD 😢 how will we cope. 

2B252F4E-AB3E-4D23-9239-B710908C07BF.thumb.png.07c4fbbb9cc2f7d13cfb63a4ba3af3db.png

 

Don't panic!!!! The background signals will save us!!!! 🤣

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3 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Don't panic!!!! The background signals will save us!!!! 🤣

They actually will! Feb will be a beast of a month. 

When we are digging ourselves out and BBC breakfast is all of a flutter.....we can sit back and bask ;) 

Edited by chris55

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Are we back? :pardon:

Edited by matt111

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Canadian lobe ruining everything as usual. Wish it would bloody do one, it killed that potential easterly last week, and could ruin what may be a good north/northeasterly into February. So frustrating.

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Well the 12z ECM are...still all over the shop.

As with the GFS, two broad camps emerge, one that sharpens the mid atlantic ridge as the PV lobe rotates NE towards W.Greenland. The other one sends it into the Atlantic a little like the OP run from the ECM+GFS.

The op runs are certainly the form horse at the moment, but still options out there.

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Да! Да! Oui! Oui! Yes! Yes! It was only a gremlin...? Terror at 20,000 Feet!😁

Models not looking quite so stonking tonight?🤔

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I am still not convinced. Within 2 days, the start of Feb will be coming into the semi reliable. Things need to start showing their hand very soon.

Edited by Paul

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JMA has the pattern nailed..:oldgrin:

 

JN192-21.thumb.GIF.e26d71d5904a5409a6aa8622aba693bb.GIF

 

As for the ECM...

 

Serious.thumb.gif.3a945ac6057569ca8eb26d04a9781550.gif

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EC Operational big warm outlier as expected 

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59 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Considering that's more than we get most winters, I'd say it's a good run.

Yes were back, agreed lots more in the next 4/5 days and even after that opportunities for cold and snow continue, better than most winters ECM op maybe an outliner for central UK, don't often post but I think expectations are too high against the return of the beast, lots of un expected snow yesterday, expect that be the trend post 144 ...anywhere

K

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Ironically the EC ENS is very good!! Large cluster 60% or more going 850hPas below -6degC At day 10

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image.thumb.png.0e17ca3d06c2d69e1c39191400eae030.pngimage.thumb.png.2ff3394589d5916cf5171c55f8d3003b.pngDublin and London, please do not repost.

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The GEFS 12z mean indicates significantly colder next week with more chance of snow (less marginal!)👍❄️

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Is there some kind of telephone counselling service for all of this?....you know, dial 1 for GFS....dial 2 for ECM.....dial 3 for UKMO....dial 4 if there is a Poxy Bloody Canadian Lobe....or to hear these options again....

Edited by Jason74

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1 minute ago, Matty M said:

image.thumb.png.0e17ca3d06c2d69e1c39191400eae030.pngimage.thumb.png.2ff3394589d5916cf5171c55f8d3003b.pngDublin and London, please do not repost.

They're both Dublin.

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2 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Dublin and London, please do not repost.

Matty - I can only see Dublin here?  

 

**As above.  Please delete mods.

Edited by P-M

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The ECM op continues to be less than interested in developing a decent ridge to the nw and now seems to be retrogressing the pattern .

We don’t want a halfway house with troughing stuck over the UK .

If the pattern is to back west then we want that to accelerate to bring the Russian high with it .

The earlier ECM wasn’t bad and that could deliver several snow chances , the diving troughing at day 6 was interesting .

We need the next upstream low to be weaker.

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If the rest of winter is a bust, at least ive seen baseball sized snowflakes yesterday, biggest ive seen in my 49 years lol

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1 minute ago, Matty M said:

image.thumb.png.0e17ca3d06c2d69e1c39191400eae030.pngimage.thumb.png.2ff3394589d5916cf5171c55f8d3003b.pngDublin and London, please do not repost.

Was do they look like for London? That would be a better indicator I feel in this set-up as to what the broad lay of the land is.

The individual members are still something of a mess, but eyeballing it, it does look like there is more colder options than milder ones, though still considerable uncertainties with it.

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Apols....London

image.thumb.png.091e88a1599e3da5b4143c5f7a5440b3.pngimage.thumb.png.3b328d9f8f89fbf823075d0b4bb90581.pngLondon...Manchester

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4 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Apols....London

image.thumb.png.091e88a1599e3da5b4143c5f7a5440b3.pngimage.thumb.png.3b328d9f8f89fbf823075d0b4bb90581.pngLondon...Manchester

Thanks, more support for cold BUT with a considerable minority going with the operational run. That's still finely balanced then. Great to see it in chart form, especially as it does kind of back the eyeballing of the individual runs.

Also cooler further north with less milder runs, backing up the idea that the LP crosses the UK at some point o the 31-1st Feb and where it does makes a big difference temperature wise.

Still, with both the GFS and eCm ops on the warm end, as well as the GEM+UKMO trending much worse...what is it the ops are seeing that the other enemsble members aren't?

 

Edited by kold weather

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